Arthur Beesley: Extreme caution would seem warranted in Irish setting
‘No one speaks of glittering growth; it’s all about the threat to insipid growth’
Cranes on the Dublin skyline. “One key point to recall in this panorama is that every single promise made on the hustings is predicated on a continuation of growth in Ireland, which itself depends on world growth.”
The onset of the election campaign comes amid fresh worries over the slowdown in China and turmoil in financial markets. To one degree or another, public utterances this week from the EU Commission, International Monetary Fund chief Christine Lagarde, the Bank of England and a top Federal Reserve policy-maker each underscore growing anxiety about risks to the outlook for the global economy.
Whether this penetrates political debate here in the next three weeks is anyone’s guess. It might well be too late for a real bearing on an election in which the turnaround in Ireland’s economic fortunes now appears to finds broad acceptance.
Amid noisy argument over the maligned “fiscal space”, however, it is as well to recognise Ireland’s acute exposure to the whirling winds of change in the outside world.
It seems striking, too, that one of Fine Gael’s last acts before Taoiseach Enda Kenny called the election was to unveil its “rainy day reserve”. The question of when the reserve was actually conceived is moot. The very decision to hold off on the allocation of €2.5 billion from the €10.1 billion in “fiscal space” which it foresees for the next five years points to concern to protect against economic shock. It’s hardly a secret that concerns of this kind have intensified around the world since the start of the year.
One key point to recall in this panorama is that every single promise made on the hustings is predicated on a continuation of growth in Ireland, which itself depends on world growth. When the world goes up, we go up. When it goes down, we go down.
Another is that any serious setback in the global setting would, in all likelihood, shift the focus in Ireland from the allocation of budgetary largesse to the allocation of budgetary pain.
There is no doubt that mitigation measures would be required in the event of a world downturn, notwithstanding the fact that all current forecasts foresee a decent growth in Ireland this year and next.
Scorching heat
True enough, the Central Bank has forecast 4.8 per cent gross domestic product growth for 2016 and 4.4 per cent growth for 2017. But the key document was followed within hours by a warning against “overly” focusing on the forecast from Prof Philip Lane, who just happens to be governor of the bank. In his view it’s an open question whether pressures in Brazil and China shake the world economy.
The same can be seen in the assessment of the EU Commission, which foresees 4.5 per cent growth in Ireland this year and 3.5 per cent for 2017. The commission seems happy enough with the Dublin authorities, saying “economic fundamentals are robust”. Still, it warns that Ireland is “particularly exposed” to a possible deterioration in the external world which could dampen exports. Of that external environment, the commission’s view is clear. “Risks to the growth outlook from the global economy and global financial markets have clearly increased,” it says. Risks include lower growth in emerging markets and the possibility of a “disorderly” adjustment in China.
There is more. Even though Largarde has argued that China’s economy can avoid a “hard landing”, she anticipates increased demand from emerging markets for financial support from the IMF. As the Bank of England cut its forecasts on Thursday it warned that global growth would be modest as emerging economies struggle.
One day earlier, Federal Reserve vice-chairman Bill Dudley said market turmoil of recent weeks could alter the growth outlook. A roadblock in the global economy could have “significant consequences” for the US if it triggered a further surge on the dollar, he said.
There is where global debate centres right now: no one speaks of glittering growth; it’s all about the threat to insipid growth. Extreme caution is, therefore, warranted in the Irish setting.
Given all the progress made since the last election, an upbeat narrative is understandable in some quarters. There is a lesson, however. Everyone knows Ireland has been a beneficiary of low oil prices, low interest rates, low borrowing costs and good growth in the US and Britain. To acknowledge that, however, is to acknowledge just how much external conditions can influence conditions here.
