IRA not ready to abandon operations

The general public might regard as major breaches of the Provisional IRA ceasefire the attempted smuggling of hundreds of guns from Florida, the murder of Belfast man Charles Bennett and at least five other men, and the recruitment of new members and their training in the use of firearms and explosives.

However, it appears that this is a reality of the IRA "ceasefire" which is likely to continue. According to senior security and Garda sources, there is no indication that the IRA intends stopping these activities, in the short term at least.

It is believed that the IRA leadership endorsed the high-risk strategy of bringing in new arms from the United States for reasons to do with internal republican politics and strategy. According to one Garda source, the leadership could not risk being seen to turn down the opportunity to acquire weapons. If it had done so, it was reasoned, hardliners would see this as evidence that the leadership had gone "soft".

According to Garda sources, the IRA leadership believes there is a quite deliberate campaign being waged by dissidents to show that it is becoming "soft". To counter this, it is said, the Provisionals may have decided to bring in more arms and kill Mr Bennett, a suspected informer. These decisions were taken by the IRA in spite of the likely negative political consequences for its political wing, Sinn Fein.

Senior republicans are said to suspect a renewed campaign against them by dissident republican anti-ceasefire elements, including those responsible for the Omagh bombing.

The main group of dissidents, based largely around the Border from Dundalk to Newry, is said to be seeking to reassert itself. It is not yet clear to what extent it has reorganised. After withdrawing into itself in shame over the mass murder at Omagh, the dissidents are again said to be actively spreading seeds of doubt among republicans and seeking potential recruits.

According to senior security figures, recent actions by the Provisional IRA have staved off internal dissent for the time being.

Despite rumours in republican circles that the dissidents are gaining strength, the consensus among senior security sources is that they have failed to form a proper core terrorist organisation.

It is understood that this is the thrust of the security advice to both governments in advance of the pronouncement on the standing of the IRA ceasefire expected this week from the Northern Ireland Secretary, Dr Mo Mowlam.

Despite the fact that this could undermine the political process in the North, security figures say it is unlikely that the IRA will be deterred from pursuing its present course.

One of the main problems, according to a senior security source, concerns the IRA's perception of itself. It is said that the IRA believes it has a legitimate right to arm (and rearm), to murder informers and to continue training in terrorism.

The IRA leadership is said to see itself as an organisation akin to the Palestine Liberation Organisation or the African National Congress. The IRA leadership is also said to interpret the vote for its political manifestation, Sinn Fein, as a popular mandate for it to continue in its present form, although not, at present, to engage in war with the British state or with loyalism.

Therefore, while on ceasefire (its term is "cessation"), it appears that the IRA expects to be able to do the following:

kill suspected police informers or former IRA members who have gone public and written books;

carry out robberies to raise funds;

carry out murders and punishment shootings and beatings of suspected drug-dealers or petty criminals living in areas of strong republican support;

continue to upgrade its arsenal through the smuggling of modern weapons;

recruit new members and train them in the use of arms;

gather intelligence on potential targets in the event of a return to "war";

run illegal "front" companies to launder funds.

It has engaged in all of these activities since calling its first ceasefire in August 1994 - and, naturally enough, during the 18-month period from February 1996 when it was off ceasefire.

Information about these activities has surfaced in the media periodically throughout the ceasefire periods, but has had no significant impact on the political process. The only period of suspension was in February last year, when ballistics tests showed that the weapon used to kill Brendan Campbell, a Belfast drug-dealer, had been used in other IRA shootings. As a result, Sinn Fein was suspended from the talks process, but allowed to return after two weeks, in the run-up to the signing of the Belfast Agreement.

The recent murder of Charles Bennett in Belfast and the implication of the IRA in the Florida arms smuggling, has impacted on the political situation which existed at the start of the summer. In late June, there was anticipation of arms decommissioning in the event of Sinn Fein being allowed into government in Northern Ireland.

Despite the arms smuggling and the murder of Mr Bennett, there is clear evidence of an improving security climate in the North. Aside from the Bennett murder, there was only one other "political" murder in Northern Ireland this summer - that of Mrs Elizabeth O'Neill, who was killed by a loyalist pipe-bomb in her home in Portadown on June 5th. The threatened confrontation at Drumcree did not materialise. In fact, this has so far been the most peaceful summer in Northern Ireland since the late 1960s.

Senior security sources are still hopeful that there can be a continuation of the political process and that this will have the effect of gradually helping to reduce terrorist activity to a point where there can be reciprocal reductions in military activity and public order policing in the North.