Quantitative Easing offers potential benefits for Irish exports and budget

Weaker euro will help local economy

The likely impact of quantitative easing (QE) on Ireland is difficult to estimate exactly, as much will depend on whether it succeeds in reviving the euro zone economy.

However, this is a significant move. It will mean the Central Bank going into the market, starting in March, and buying some €500 million a month in government bonds, itself a significant intervention. If it works – and it remains an “if” – the main ways it may affect our economy are the following.

Boosting exports: if QE helps revive the euro zone economy, this will mean more growth in a market that takes about a quarter of our exports. A weaker euro, another likely result of QE, will help exports to non-euro markets.

Keeping interest rates low: QE should mean official bond interest rates are low and also help the banks to raise funds more cheaply. This should mean lower interest rates for consumers and businesses, though we have seen how slow banks can be to pass these benefits on. Returns for savers will remain very low.

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Making credit available: if banks and investors sell holdings of government bonds, then they will have more cash to lend out or invest elsewhere. However, demand for credit is probably a bigger problem now than supply.

Lowering the cost to Government of new borrowing: with a new buyer in the market for bonds, the State should be able to raise funds more cheaply than would otherwise be the case. Ten-year Irish bond interest rates fell to a new low of 1.16 per cent yesterday.

Helping the national budget: as the Central Bank will be buying Irish government bonds, the Government will be paying interest on these bonds to the Central Bank, rather than to other investors.This will save it money, as the Central Bank returns most of its profits to the exchequer. This could improve the position for the 2016 budget by a few hundred million, with further benefits to flow through as the buying continues in 2016.

Pushing up inflation: this would be welcome as consumer prices are falling. A rise in the inflation rate helps Ireland as a high-debt country, as it pushes up the cash level of our national output and helps to gradually lower the debt burden

Supporting asset prices: if investors sell government bonds to the Central Bank they have more cash. Experience in the US and UK shows this can support the price of other assets, such as equities or property.

Cliff Taylor

Cliff Taylor

Cliff Taylor is an Irish Times writer and Managing Editor