Cantillon: Bank on Ulster and RBS being a problem

The first is that people who should know better don't understand – or more likely choose not to understand, bank balance sheets. The second and more important thing is that Ulster Bank could well become a political hot potato.

It is unavoidable that some of the mud thrown yesterday will stick.

Explain as you might that the UK tax payer bailed out one of their own banks – Ulsters'parent RBS – and not Ireland; the public will still cleave to the more salacious, but spurious, notion that if they had not put in the money, then the Irish tax payer would have had to.

It is patent nonsense.

That is not to say, however, that Ireland does not have reason to be grateful to the British tax payer.

If they had taken the other course open to them and allowed RBS collapse it would have been as catastrophic to our banking system as their own.

The real significance of the back-door bailout claim is that it sets the mood for the expected publication this week of a parliamentary inquiry in to the British banks which is predicted to prescribe some strong medicine and if various leaks prove well founded, will make a whipping boy of Ulster,

One idea mooted to be on the table is that Ireland takes Ulster in exchange for the decent UK assets of Nama.

It is a manifestly absurd proposition from the Irish point of view and whilst it might have some appeal for RBS it is not seen to be a runner.

However the Chancellor
of the Exchequer may have difficult batting away such a
notion in the face of manufactured outrage that has twisted RBS facing up
to the consequences of its reckless lending in Ireland as some sort of back door bailout.

It will be an interesting week.