Hush in Dame Street as house prices rise

The Central Bank’s inaction could be attributed to several causes

Central Bankers – including our own Patrick Honohan – are fond of quoting William McChesney Martin 's maxim that the role of the Central Banker is to take the punch bowl away before the party gets into full swing.

However, if yesterday’s house price figures are any guide, the Dublin property market is already heading towards the slow set and nobody on Dame Street has made a move on the beverages.

House price inflation has returned to double digits for the first time since 2007, driven almost entirely by the Dublin market where they have shot up 22.4 per cent in a year.

The Central Bank’s inaction could be attributed to several causes, the salient one being that nobody really knows what is going on in the capital’s housing scene. The number of transactions is low and supply is constrained, with several potentially contradictory reasons posited. The absence of bank finance also means that price levels could be artificially high as the pent up demand of “cash buyers” must surely be finite.

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Dame Street may also be conscious of the fact that despite the rapid acceleration seen in the last 12 months average prices are still someway off their peak.

Davy pointed out yesterday that even after the increases prices are still down 45 per cent from 2007 levels .

For all these reasons it might make sense for the Central Bank to stay its hand and indeed it might also be helpful for them to say so, if it is the case. However, one suspects it is a conversation the bank may not really want to have in case it leads to discussion of what it could do about house prices anyway.

Interest rates are the normal tool used to fight inflation, in houses and other goods, but they are set by the European Central Bank which has no intention of putting up rates for the foreseeable future.