Cantillon: Where will big firms base themselves post-Brexit?

Dublin could see companies both moving in and out following result of UK referendum

The law of unintended, and unexpected, consequences is already starting to flow from the Brexit vote. And there is more – much more – to come, some potentially positive for the Irish economy and some the opposite. Let's look at one particular area: where companies and organisations base themselves.

The European Banking Authority (EBA), which sets and co-ordinates the rules for banking in Europe, was founded in 2011 and is based in London. It has said that it will have to move if Britain leaves the EU. But to where ?

MEP Brian Hayes says Dublin should make the case for the EBA and its 150 generally well-paid employees to relocate to Dublin.

Already Dublin is a developing financial centre, he points out, and anyway the EU should spread such institutions around, and not automatically look to move them to bigger locations, such as Frankfurt.

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There will also be a nice building in Dame Street with a banking history vacant when the Central Bank moves out.

But there could be moves out, too. Seeking Alpha, the financial information site, had a piece by analyst Mark Hibben, speculating that Apple might see some advantage in moving its European corporate holding company from Ireland to the UK, where cash moving through it would be away from the prying eyes of the European Commission,which is due to rule shortly on its case against Ireland and the tax deal it allegedly gave to Apple.

Of course this is only speculation, but it does raise one key issue post-Brexit: Britain will want to compete much more aggressively for FDI, and it will not have to comply with EU state-aid rules once it does leave the union.

There is now a dizzying range of factors set to affect decisions of big organisations on where to locate post-Brexit. Watch this space.