Brexit talks failure would mean ‘queues and shortages’

Britain will face nuclear fuel shortages, truck queues at Dover and "serious disruption" to air traffic if Brexit talks fail, the EU's chief negotiator has warned as he outlined conditions for an "ambitious" UK-EU trade deal.

In a wide-ranging speech ahead of article 50 exit talks, Michel Barnier warned London that it must agree "principles for an orderly withdrawal" before trade talks, including those relating to its financial dues and the rights of four million UK and EU migrants.

While endorsing Theresa May’s call for a “bold and ambitious free-trade agreement”, Mr Barnier insisted that ambition must also maintain “a level playing field” on tax, labour law and consumer rights.

“The sooner we agree on the principles of an orderly withdrawal, the sooner we can start preparing this future relationship,” he said. “On the other hand, if we do not address these uncertainties and put off difficult subjects to the end of the negotiations we will be heading for failure.”

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Mr Barnier did not completely rule out the possibility of agreeing a free-trade deal in time for Britain’s exit – one of London’s key demands. However, he said the new partnership would “take time” and that transition arrangements might be necessary.

Transition

Brushing aside one of the British prime minister’s red lines over the future role of European judges, he explicitly stated the EU’s demand that interim measures “will be within the framework of European law” and the European Court of Justice. Such a transition could not allow Britain to pick and choose access to areas of the single market.

In one of the most provocative parts of his address, Mr Barnier tackled head-on Mrs May’s assertion that “no deal is better than a bad deal”, setting out a bleak vision of the “serious consequences” from leaving without agreement.

“More than four million British citizens in the EU and European citizens in the UK faced with complete uncertainty about their rights and their future; the reintroduction of binding customs controls, which will inevitably slow down trade and lead to queues of trucks at Dover; serious disruption to air traffic; an overnight suspension in the movement of nuclear materials to the UK,” he said.

“A no-deal scenario is not our goal. We want an agreement. We want to succeed.”

Although Mr Barnier was uncompromising on the need for Britain to “settle its accounts”, he avoided putting a figure on any exit payment or explaining in more detail what principles for a withdrawal would need to be agreed.

The European Commission is also keen to show it will be constructive and ambitious in its handling of trade talks, once the basics of a divorce are worked out.

"We agree with Theresa May in her call for a 'bold and ambitious free-trade agreement'. Yes to ambition!" Mr Barnier said.

But in a sign of how difficult the trade talks may become, he added: “This ambition will also apply to social welfare, tax, environmental and consumer protection standards, to which our citizens are rightly attached”.

– Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2017