Bank of England sees need for summer stimulus after Brexit shock

Bank of England governor Mark Carney said the bank would probably need to pump more stimulus into Britain's economy over the summer after the shock of last week's decision by voters to leave the European Union.

“In my view, and I am not prejudging the views of the other independent MPC members, the economic outlook has deteriorated and some monetary policy easing will likely be required over the summer,” he said in a speech on Thursday.

Mr Carney, who has previously warned of a possible recession in Britain if it chose to leave the EU, said the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee would announce an initial assessment of the situation on July 14th, after its next scheduled meeting.

That would be followed by a full assessment when the bank updates its forecasts for the economy on August 4th.

“In August, we will also discuss further the range of instruments at our disposal,” Mr Carney said.

Investors already largely expect the bank to cut interest rates over the summer, taking them below their already record low of 0.5 per cent to possibly as low as zero, the same level as euro zone rates.

Bonds

They also think the Bank of England might ramp up its bond-buying programme under which it amassed a stockpile of £375 billion (€449 billion) worth of government debt after the financial crisis.

The yield on 10-year British government bonds fell below 1 per cent for the first time earlier this week and was trading at close to that level earlier on Thursday.

Sterling fell to a 31-year low against the dollar on Monday but remains down about 10 per cent compared with before the referendum. Investors face an uncertain political outlook after UK prime minister David Cameron said he would resign after losing the vote, putting more emphasis on the Bank of England's response.

In his speech, Mr Carney cautioned that there were limits to how low the bank could cut rates.

“As we have seen elsewhere, if interest rates are too low or negative, the hit to bank profitability could perversely reduce credit availability or even increase its overall price,” he said.

Mr Carney said contingency measures drawn up by the bank and Britain’s financial ministry for the immediate market shocks caused by the referendum were “working well.”

He also said the bank had “a host of other measures and policies” to steer the economy and the country’s vast banking sector through the shock triggered by the referendum result.

Auctions

The bank will hold weekly sterling liquidity auctions between now and the end of September - instead of monthly - as a precaution in case banks ran into problems getting hold of cash.

But Mr Carney warned that central bankers on their own would not be able to eliminate the referendum shock and Britain’s economic growth prospects would be driven by “much bigger decisions; by bigger plans that are being formulated by others.”

He said it was important that Britain’s future relationship with the EU was clarified as quickly as possible, including a decision on how open it will remain to migration, one of the most sensitive issues for British voters.

Mr Carney angered supporters of the Leave campaign before the referendum with his warnings about the consequences of a decision by Britain to drop its EU membership.

Mr Carney and his fellow Bank of England policymakers will not have much hard data on how Britain’s economy has responded to the referendum shock when they meet next month.

Indicators due to be released before then include new car registrations and a measure of consumer confidence.

More meaningful surveys of the country’s manufacturing, construction and service sectors, covering the month of July, will only be published in early August.

Stability

The central bank's Financial Policy Committee is due to release its half-yearly assessment of financial stability on Tuesday. It could temporarily relax capital rules for banks in order to keep lending flowing.

Mr Carney responded quickly to the historic result of the referendum, delivering a televised address early on Friday as the pound and stock markets plunged.

He said the Bank of England would offer £250 billion plus “substantial” access to foreign currency to ease any squeeze in markets and the bank would take more steps if needed.

Reuters