Will Ireland’s bet on China milk market come a cropper on breast-feeding?

Ireland’s post-quota dairy plan, which targets a 50 per cent increase in milk production by 2020, is the most ambitious of any EU state. It’s based on the seemingly unshakeable assumption that China’s demand for infant formula is underpinned by fundamental shifts in Chinese society.

The relaxation of the State’s one-child policy, the melamine poisoning scandal of 2008 and the rise of an affluent middle class have seen the demand for powdered milk grow tenfold in less than a decade.

Beijing currently imports $17 billion worth of powdered milk annually, almost two-thirds of the entire world market – and Euromonitor predicts the market will double again in the next three years.

Even at the retail level, prices appear ridiculously inflated. Kerry Group’s recently launched formula brand Green Love Plus retails at a hefty €43 per kilo – almost four times the Irish price.

However, running in parallel with these impressive stats is a growing concern about low breast-feeding rates. In a bid to tackle the problem, Chinese authorities are now considering a ban on advertisements for infant milk formula. The proposed legislation would ban adverts in mass media or public places for dairy products, drinks and other foods that “claim to partly or completely substitute mother’s milk”.

Less than a third of babies are exclusively breastfed in China and the number is falling despite global health bodies recommending the practice for babies under six months.

Swiss-based Nestlé suffered a boycott of its products in the US and Europe in the late 1970s and early 1980s, prompted by concerns over its "aggressive marketing" of breast milk substitutes.

Behind China’s growing appetite for formula lies some uncomfortable truths. Experts say formula sales are being driven by a lack of access to maternity leave and by what some claim is the “unethical” marketing of infant formula through the maternity care system.

China’s government is now committed to raise the exclusive breast-feeding rate to 50 per cent by 2020. Nonetheless, experts say even a tiny slice of the Chinese milk powder market would be enough to justify Ireland’s production plans. Only time will tell if they’re right.