State of the Union »

• Will UKIP’s ‘racist’ leaflet turn voters off?

  September 16, 2009 @ 10:41 am | by Jamie Smyth

  

  Here is the leaflet that the Freedom and Democracy group, whose leader is UKIP MEP Nigel Farage, plans to post to every house in Ireland.

   It is titled ‘The Truth About The Lisbon Treaty’ and will arrive in people’s letterboxes between September 17^th and 21^st. Reading over the six pages it is clear that the leaflet’s version of the truth is a bit like reading a novel by JRR Tolkien- full of fantastic fantasy figures that bear no relation to real life and a great evil, which in this case is the Lisbon treaty.

  Freedom and Democracy claims Lisbon will leads to mass immigration from Turkey (to get its message across it helpfully portrays a picture of a turkey with a medallion hanging around its neck saying “free movement for 75 million people”). It also asks a series of questions designed to place doubts in Irish voters minds such as: Will we get euthanasia? Do you want to become an EU province? Do you want to pay for the EU? Is your job safe? It also shows a wooden horse, presumably from
  Troy, with the letters CCCTB scribbled on it- a reference to the European Commission plan to harmonise the EU tax base.

  I predict a lot of confusion when the 1.5 million leaflets arrive in Irish households. But it is also quite likely that the majority of people will reject the messages precisely because it is so extreme. Irish MEP Marian Harkin has already said the leaflet is racist with its portrayal of a turkey representing the country Turkey and strongly criticised UKIP leader Farage, who designed the leaflet. 

    I’d be interested to see how readers of this blog react to it.

• Keeping our commissioner without Lisbon

  September 6, 2009 @ 10:54 am | by Jamie Smyth

   

  I’ve just arrived back from an EU foreign ministers meeting in Sweden where it was clear that everyone is getting very nervous about the second Lisbon treaty referendum.

  I interviewed Swedish prime minister Fredrik Reinfeldt- president of the European Council- on the fringes of the meeting where he admitted that the Swedes are working on a contingency plan in the event of a no vote. He also gave a frank assessment of what is likely to happen if we deal a final death blow to the Lisbon treaty. (interview here)

    According to Reinfeldt, a no vote would be respected by the Union and the Nice treaty would prevail. And, contrary to some of the exaggerated claims of yes campaigners, the sky wouldn’t immediately fall on Ireland’s head. It is the EU as a whole that would be damaged as the endless navel-gazing EU institutional debate continues to divert attention from other important issues such as climate change.

  But it was his comments on how to cope with the stipulation in Nice- that the number of commissioners must be less than the number of states in the next EU executive- that were most interesting. He said a “26 plus one” plan is favoured by diplomats and the probable solution. This would see 26 states retaining their commissioner and the 27^th state getting the plum job of EU foreign affairs chief instead of a commissioner.  

  The political reality, according to Reinfeldt, is that no member state wants to lose its commissioner even if Lisbon cannot enter into force and the EU must continue with the Nice treaty. The “26 plus one” plan is likely to fly in the event of a no vote as many states would agree to swap their right to a low profile post in the EU executive, such as commissioner for multilingualism, to obtain the high profile foreign affairs job.

  Another interesting comment from the Swedish prime minister was that the political deal agreed last December on the size of the commission to allow all member states to retain a commissioner may not last forever. “We might in the future get back to this discussion. What if we keep on enlarging?” admitted Mr Reinfeldt, who warned that the question of the efficiency of the commission will re-emerge when there are 30 states or more in the EU.

   Reinfeldt is right on both counts, of course. But his Swedish frankness may not go down well with the Government, who are running their Lisbon campaign on a theme of “vote yes to keep your commissioner”. Revealing four weeks before polling that there is likely no immediate threat to an Irish commissioner, even if we vote no to Lisbon, is the type of honest political assessment so rarely displayed during referendum campaigns in Ireland.

    Scaremongering is emerging as a key tactic on both sides of the second Lisbon debate with yes campaigners arguing Ireland’s entire economic and political future is at risk while no campaigners warn Lisbon will introduce abortion and lead to a deluge of migrants. If only we could import a little bit of Swedish rationalism to our debates surely the quality of our democracy would be much higher.

• Ireland’s wartime legacy and the EU

  September 1, 2009 @ 10:08 pm | by Jamie Smyth

   

  Today is the 70^th anniversary of the start of world war II and many EU leaders have gathered in Poland to commemorate the loss of 50 million lives. 

   The war ultimately led to the creation of the EU as politicians sought a way to bind France and Germany together to prevent the type of big power competition that so tragically dominated the first half of the 20^th century.

   The significance of the commemoration in Gdansk was not lost on MEPs who returned from their holidays after the summer break. 

  “Thanks to the EU, we have witnessed 60 years of peace and prosperity,” said Joseph Daul, chairman of the EPP group in the European Parliament, who comes from the symbolically important city of Strasbourg on the French-German border.

   The critical role the EU has played in creating a stable and peaceful Europe is much appreciated in continental Europe, which suffered the worst of the ravages of two world wars. It also explains why countries such as France and Poland want to build up a strong common European defence policy.

  Back home in Ireland there is far less attention on the anniversary of the war, principally because Eamon de Valera’s Ireland chose not to take part. At the time the Irish secretary at the ministry for external affairs Joe Walshe explained the decision by saying: “small nations like Ireland do not and cannot assume a role as defenders of just causes except (their) own… Existence of our own people comes before all other considerations.”

   Staying out of the war was morally questionable while De Valera’s condolence call to the German embassy when Hitler died is still a source of national shame. But Ireland’s historical experience of British rule and subsequent strict adherence to neutrality still shapes Irish attitudes to the EU, which came to the fore during the first Lisbon referendum campaign last June.

   The traditional argument in favour of the EU as a peace building body simply fails to excite Irish people as its does the French or Germans. There is also public antipathy to any talk of building a common EU defence or increasing Europe’s military capacities to help it play a stronger global role.

   So it is no surprise that in the run up to the second vote on Lisbon on October 2^nd the yes campaign is focusing on tangible arguments in favour of the EU such as jobs and investment while avoiding any talk of EU defence policy.

   Whether these arguments are strong enough to engender the type of emotional commitment to the European project that is seen in countries like France and Germany remains to be seen on October 2^nd.  

• In Ireland a woman’s place is in the home

  June 16, 2009 @ 1:46 pm | by Jamie Smyth

   

  I’ve had my first look at the guarantees that are intended to meet the concerns of the Irish electorate and persuade them to back the Lisbon treaty this autumn.

   My first thought as I pore over the texts is that I’ve read them somewhere before. All that stuff about not prejudicing a member states’ neutrality or attaching high importance to workers rights and social progress is already in the
  Lisbon treaty.

   I remember the phrases well because I was commissioned by my paper to write a 10 part series on the treaty running to an excruciating 10,000 words.

  Granted, the guarantees drawn up by Irish and EU diplomats do add a little bit of colour when compared to the
  Lisbon text. I particularly like the sentence that Lisbon doesn’t create a European army or introduce conscription and that it is up to Ireland to decide whether to help an EU state attacked by terrorists.

   So for those citizens who don’t have time to flick through the Lisbon treaty the Irish guarantee text, which runs to seven pages, may help to soothe their concerns that the EU is about to force their sons to go to war or enslave workers. As one colleague mentioned over breakfast earlier today, it’s Lisbon for slow learners. 

  But I admit I was a little flummoxed by our ethical guarantee, which says nothing in Lisbon or the charter of fundamental rights affects the “right to life, family and education” as laid down in the Irish constitution in articles 40.3.1/40.3.2/ 40.3.3/ 41/42/ 44.2.4/44.2.5. I haven’t read those articles for a while and I imagine that many of our EU partners aren’t versed in the text of Bunreacht na hEireann. 

    A quick Google search and I’m trawling through our constitution, which doesn’t make pretty reading for atheists. The preamble makes it clear who is in charge in Ireland.

   “In the Name of the Most Holy Trinity, from Whom is all authority and to Whom, as our final end, all actions both of men and States must be referred, We, the people of Éire, Humbly acknowledging all our obligations to our Divine Lord, Jesus Christ, Who sustained our fathers through centuries of trial…”

   Article 40.3 deals with abortion, which is illegal in Ireland except in exceptional circumstances. “The State acknowledges the right to life of the unborn and, with due regard to the equal right to life of the mother, guarantees in its laws to respect, and, as far as practicable, by its laws to defend and vindicate that right,”

   Article 41 provides some good lines on the “inalienable and imprescriptable” rights of the family as the “natural primary and fundamental group of society”.

    But the best bit is undoubtedly the bit about women’s role in society.  “In particular, the State recognises that by her life within the home, woman gives to the State a support without which the common good cannot be achieved. The State shall, therefore, endeavour to ensure that mothers shall not be obliged by economic necessity to engage in labour to the neglect of their duties in the home,” says Article 41.2. 

  Reading this stuff suddenly makes Lisbon and the charter of fundamental rights sound pretty attractive. Maybe we should be voting in the autumn to try to ensure that Lisbon does introduce wholesale changes to our constitution.

• What the elections mean for Lisbon

  May 29, 2009 @ 4:16 pm | by Jamie Smyth

   

  I’m back in Ireland for a few days to get a view of how the European election campaign is going at home. An opinion poll commissioned by the European parliament this week forecast that turnout here at about 66 per cent would be higher than in any other EU state.

   This is hardly surprising given the country is teetering on the brink of bankruptcy due to the bursting of the property bubble (I note the Government is now asking the EU if it can pump a further 4 billion euro of taxpayers money into Anglo Irish bank) and jobs are being lost hand over fist in all sectors of the economy.

   Judging by our latest opinion poll today the public are angry and the Government is likely to be crushed in the local elections. Fianna Fail could potentially lose a seat in the European elections in Dublin where Sinn Fein’s Mary Lou McDonald is pushing Eoin Ryan hard for the third seat. Libertas’ Declan Ganley faces a tougher challenge in the
  North West constituency where Fianna Fail’s Pat the Cope Gallagher has a name and a strong local organisation. (see tomorrow’s Irish Times poll) 

   The fate of McDonald and Ganley in this election will be crucial in the upcoming referendum on the Lisbon treaty in the autumn. Ganley has already said if he is not elected he won’t lead a campaign against the treaty while Mary Lou’s impact in the no campaign would be seriously diminished if she can’t hold onto her seat. Several of my European colleagues (the correspondents from Le Figaro and the Economist) are currently in Ireland judging the mood of the public ahead of the elections for this exact reason. For their readership the European elections in Ireland are all about what the results say about the upcoming Lisbon referendum.

   Ironically, over here the public couldn’t care less about the fate of the Lisbon treaty during these elections- a point acknowledged at a press conference with Mary Lou McDonald, Joe Higgins and Patricia McKenna this morning.   

   Speaking to friends, colleagues and family at home it is clear that sentiment towards Lisbon has changed over the past few months because of the perilous state of the economy. But I think it is too early for yes campaigners to start counting their chickens ahead of the October vote. For one thing the economy is in such a bad state and sentiment towards the government is so poor that a Lisbon II referendum could become a referendum on the government. In other words, people may vote no to Lisbon simply to force Brian Cowen to stand down and prompt an election and a change of government.  

   Success for Mary Lou McDonald and Declan Ganley next week would bring this unlikely- but still possible- scenario a step closer.  

• Pandering to the priests on Lisbon

  May 25, 2009 @ 8:30 am | by Jamie Smyth

   

  With all the talk about the European elections back home it’s easy to forget that a second referendum on the Lisbon treaty is less than five months away.

  But over here in Brussels the debate around Lisbon II is hotting up. Irish diplomats will today provide their EU partners with the first glimpse of the guarantees on Lisbon that they have been working on with the Council of Ministers senior legal eagle Jean-Claude Piris ever since the first no vote.

   The guarantees cover the areas of taxation, defence, abortion, religion and family life and are likely to be enshrined in the EU treaties via a protocol that will have to be ratified by all 27 EU states in the future (most likely when everyone ratifies the Croatian accession treaty in 2010 or 11).   

   The usual diplomatic cloak of secrecy has been spread over the exact wording of the guarantees. But diplomats that I have spoken to say they will be drawn up in a way that makes clear they are “Irish specific”. In other words when this Irish protocol is ratified it won’t give the European Court of Justice a pretext for using the Irish guarantees to make rulings in a British or French case. (For example a French firm couldn’t invoke the guarantee on Irish sovereignty over tax to argue against future European law in this area)

   Most foreign journalists and diplomats regard the guarantees as a price worth paying to assuage Irish paranoia about the EU. The idea that Europe is about to force Ireland to abort babies or go to war is complete nonsense- particularly since we’ve already persuaded Europe to honour our existing constitutional safeguards on both issues in the Maastricht and Nice treaties.

   My own fear about the guarantees is that they pander to a small band of religious conservatives and will paint Ireland in the rest of Europe’s eyes as some sort of intolerant, priest-led and parochial backwater. For example a guarantee underlining Ireland’s right to protect family life or education sounds innocuous enough. But in the hands of Coir, Youth Defence or other minority religious-led groups it becomes key ammunition in their fight against gay marriage, civil partnerships or non denominational schooling.  And by the way, where is the Government’s promised bill on civil partnerships?

  I also have a suspicion that no matter what guarantees the Government gave on ethical issues it would never be enough for an extreme religious minority, who do not represent the views of most Irish people.     

• How much will a yes vote cost?

  May 15, 2009 @ 5:06 pm | by Jamie Smyth

  Bashing the Government looks like being the main theme of the upcoming Euro elections in Ireland but back in Brussels the eurocrats are fretting over the fate of the Lisbon treaty.

   So much so Information commissioner Margot Wallstrom is about to sign a €1.6 million contract with public relations company Edelman to sell “Europe” to the Irish people.

   Edelman, which has teamed up with Peter Brennan’s EPS Consulting, has beat off stiff competition from all the other big PR firms in Dublin for a plum contract during tough times.

  A formal contract signing is just days away enabling Europe’s PR blitz to begin in the early summer, possibly June.  

  So what can we expect over the next five months?

  Well as the commission office explained at the length when I broke the story of the tender in February this has absolutely nothing to do with the Lisbon treaty! Apparently, its just part of normal commission information activities to explain Europe to citizens.

  Call me a cynic but that sounds like claptrap. Or, more likely a legal disclaimer – in case no campaigners try to take a case claiming that the PR contract falls foul of tough laws on public money being used in referendum campaigns.

  The tender documents show the PR blitz will be aimed at the three groups who voted en masse against the Lisbon first time around: women; young people and low income families. More than half a million euro will be spent on cinema advertising- so if you are going to see a blockbuster this summer expect to see trendy adverts explaining why Europe is good for you. (Here’s one of the weirder variety below)  There will also be a big internet campaign to target the young with some sort of blogging initiative.   

   The Government, which recently closed down the Forum on Europe because it ‘cost too much’, also have a half a million euro tender out for much the same type of PR. Clearly, in the run up to Lisbon II the hard sell will replace more traditional debating chambers such as the Forum.