Ireland paves the way for Tony Blair?
Jamie Smyth
Well, polling day is finally upon us. Thank god because I’m not sure I could face writing another article about the intricacies of the Lisbon treaty. One contact in a political party in Ireland told me at 7pm tonight their private exit poll is for a 60 – 40 yes vote. I think it will pass ok, but I suspect it may be closer.
I think Czech president Vaclav Klaus will also be forced to sign- it’s not easy to stand alone against 26 states when your own parliament has already ratified a treaty. This means Lisbon entering into force by January 1st 2010 and the nomination of the first European Council president.
I’m just back from meetings with a few senior EU diplomats and a top commission official, who all say their money is squarely behind former British prime minister Tony Blair for the plum job. The British are pushing him hard. Sarkozy seems to be awestruck by the suave French speaking Brit and even Merkel is apparently softening her stance- in part because there are few other high calibre candidates.
Personally I’m not so sure Blair will survive the horse trading that goes on in choosing any top EU job. But all the speculation begs the question would Blair he be any good at it?
Blair is clearly talented and a wonderful communicator. He was instrumental in making the Labour party electable once again and everyone in Brussels remembers his fine pro-European speech to the European parliament at the start of the Britain’s EU presidency. But despite all the fine words about Europe when he was prime minister he never attempted to tackle euroscepticism in Britain.
Blair is a chameleon, according to people who have done business with him. “When you sit down with him he usually tells you exactly what you want to hear but whether you ever get what you want is another thing,” says one source. That’s probably one of the skills that helped him manage the peace talks in Northern Ireland, which must go down as his single best achievement to date. In fact, Blair as president of Europe would suit Ireland. He has done more for British-Irish relations than probably any other British leader. His wife and kids have Irish passports. And he even managed to apologise for the Irish famine!
But I’m simply not convinced he can be forgiven for teaming up with George Bush to invade Iraq. This decision cost hundreds of thousands of lives in Iraq and led to the deaths of thousands of British and American soldiers. It also deeply divided the EU and raises questions about Blair’s commitment to Europe. He also has another Iraq inquiry hanging over his head in Britain. Will EU leaders risk giving such a controversial figure the first go at European Council president?
The job is unelected but public opinion across Europe may not be quite as enthused about Blair as Europe’s current crop of leaders. A charismatic figure like Blair may stretch the mandate of the job, which is meant to be more of a figurehead than an activist president. This could be bad for small member states, which see the European Commission as their ally when it comes to defending their interests against the big 3- France, Germany and Britain.
Finally, would Blair be the right man when it comes to dealing with a eurosceptic David Cameron-led government? Some say he could act as the bridge to bring Britain back from the cold. But I suspect Cameron may find it difficult to make the type of compromises he will be called upon to make with Blair in the top seat. Maybe the EU should walk before it starts to run with this job- forget the superstar and appoint a backroom boy like Balkenende, Gonzalez or Junker.
9:01 pm
The leaders of the big nation won’t want a high profile, ‘charismatic’ style leader, stealing their limelight. Especially one that has a ‘war criminal’ tag. A past it ex-administrator type is surely more likely? Gonzalez I’d say.
It’s a pity they can’t give it to Putin…
Comment by dealga