State of the Union

• Media Manipulation- Verhofstadt style

  September 25, 2009 @ 9:15 am | by Jamie

   

  A new Irish Times opinion poll published today suggests that the yes side are still ahead in the second Lisbon referendum campaign but that the no side have made up a little ground. Some 48 per cent of people are likely to vote yes, 33 per cent say they will vote no and 19 per cent are undecided. This is good news for yes campaigners, although there is still a lot of nervousness at home and abroad.

  Take Guy Verhofstadt, for instance. The leader of the Liberal group in the European Parliament is coming to Ireland on Monday to campaign for the treaty. He is the man, who as former Belgian prime minister inspired the Laken declaration in 2000 committing the EU to be more democratic, transparent and effective. He also heads a group committed to the promotion of press freedom and civil rights.

  But this week he only agreed to be interviewed by The Irish Times on condition that he could ‘authorise’ the article before it went to press. The main reason cited by Verhofstadt’s people was the huge “sensitivity” in the referendum campaign and a fear that saying the wrong thing could in some way tip the balance towards a no vote.  

  Authorisation is a media control technique used mostly by German politicians, who often refuse to do interviews without asking to see the final text before it is printed and giving them leeway to edit parts.

  My newspaper has a policy not to accept these types of conditions placed on journalists. So no interview was granted, which is a shame because Verhofstadt was a key player in the talks to conclude the EU constitution and the Lisbon treaty. He probably could have added to Irish people’s understanding of the treaty before the vote next week.

  Perhaps he’ll open up a little when he goes to canvass in
  Ireland on Monday. Let’s hope so or his trip to Ireland will turn out to be a PR stunt rather than an important opportunity for an important member of the European parliament to explain and listen to people’s views.

  Comments (23)

• Will UKIP’s ‘racist’ leaflet turn voters off?

  September 16, 2009 @ 10:41 am | by Jamie

  

  Here is the leaflet that the Freedom and Democracy group, whose leader is UKIP MEP Nigel Farage, plans to post to every house in Ireland.

   It is titled ‘The Truth About The Lisbon Treaty’ and will arrive in people’s letterboxes between September 17^th and 21^st. Reading over the six pages it is clear that the leaflet’s version of the truth is a bit like reading a novel by JRR Tolkien- full of fantastic fantasy figures that bear no relation to real life and a great evil, which in this case is the Lisbon treaty.

  Freedom and Democracy claims Lisbon will leads to mass immigration from Turkey (to get its message across it helpfully portrays a picture of a turkey with a medallion hanging around its neck saying “free movement for 75 million people”). It also asks a series of questions designed to place doubts in Irish voters minds such as: Will we get euthanasia? Do you want to become an EU province? Do you want to pay for the EU? Is your job safe? It also shows a wooden horse, presumably from
  Troy, with the letters CCCTB scribbled on it- a reference to the European Commission plan to harmonise the EU tax base.

  I predict a lot of confusion when the 1.5 million leaflets arrive in Irish households. But it is also quite likely that the majority of people will reject the messages precisely because it is so extreme. Irish MEP Marian Harkin has already said the leaflet is racist with its portrayal of a turkey representing the country Turkey and strongly criticised UKIP leader Farage, who designed the leaflet. 

    I’d be interested to see how readers of this blog react to it.

  Comments (46)

• Is Ganley back from the dead?

  September 11, 2009 @ 7:22 pm | by Jamie

   

  He may be back you know. Declan Ganley, that is. 

   The snappy dressing no to Lisbon campaigner, who made his name running a slick campaign against Lisbon in the first referendum, has given a lengthy interview to the Wall Street Journal.

   He repeats many of the arguments that he made during his failed European election campaign in June and describes the second referendum as a “profoundly undemocratic” exercise to hold a second vote on the treaty.

   But even if you are a closet yes voter you have to admit the businessman-turned-politician-turned-businessman has some good lines.

   “The Irish people had a vote on the Lisbon Treaty. They voted no. A higher percentage of the electorate voted no than voted for Barack Obama in the United States of America. No one’s suggesting he should run for re-election next month,” he told the Journal.

   The big question everyone on everyone’s lips is - is he becoming a politician again and launching a new campaign?  The rumour mill in Dublin suggests Libertas may launch a campaign against the treaty on Sunday, although Ganley may not be leading the group’s campaign.

  Yes campaigners are publicly saying they aren’t worried. But behind the scenes there are real fears that a fired up Ganley could give momentum to a no campaign, which is rather lackluster and has few leaders.

   Sinn Fein seem to be going through the motions by opposing the treaty without committing too many troops on the ground. With a general election possible within the next few months it is unlikely they want to scare off any voters by being too aggressive.

   Socialist MEP Joe Higgins recently got caught misquoting the treaty while the right wing Catholic group Coir has made such exaggerated claims about Lisbon’s impact on the minimum wage that most people are dismissing them as cranks.

  Libertas certainly told a few porky’s first time around- remember Ganley’s claim about the EU locking up 3 year olds- but he is passionate and a fantastic communicator.

    But the real problem standing in the way of a Ganley comeback is his repeated comments to the media that he was bowing out of politics and wouldn’t oppose the referendum following his defeat in the European elections. An u-turn now would raise questions about his integrity. But then again if he is back to being a politician then performing a u-turn will probably be second nature to him.  

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• Keeping our commissioner without Lisbon

  September 6, 2009 @ 10:54 am | by Jamie

   

  I’ve just arrived back from an EU foreign ministers meeting in Sweden where it was clear that everyone is getting very nervous about the second Lisbon treaty referendum.

  I interviewed Swedish prime minister Fredrik Reinfeldt- president of the European Council- on the fringes of the meeting where he admitted that the Swedes are working on a contingency plan in the event of a no vote. He also gave a frank assessment of what is likely to happen if we deal a final death blow to the Lisbon treaty. (interview here)

    According to Reinfeldt, a no vote would be respected by the Union and the Nice treaty would prevail. And, contrary to some of the exaggerated claims of yes campaigners, the sky wouldn’t immediately fall on Ireland’s head. It is the EU as a whole that would be damaged as the endless navel-gazing EU institutional debate continues to divert attention from other important issues such as climate change.

  But it was his comments on how to cope with the stipulation in Nice- that the number of commissioners must be less than the number of states in the next EU executive- that were most interesting. He said a “26 plus one” plan is favoured by diplomats and the probable solution. This would see 26 states retaining their commissioner and the 27^th state getting the plum job of EU foreign affairs chief instead of a commissioner.  

  The political reality, according to Reinfeldt, is that no member state wants to lose its commissioner even if Lisbon cannot enter into force and the EU must continue with the Nice treaty. The “26 plus one” plan is likely to fly in the event of a no vote as many states would agree to swap their right to a low profile post in the EU executive, such as commissioner for multilingualism, to obtain the high profile foreign affairs job.

  Another interesting comment from the Swedish prime minister was that the political deal agreed last December on the size of the commission to allow all member states to retain a commissioner may not last forever. “We might in the future get back to this discussion. What if we keep on enlarging?” admitted Mr Reinfeldt, who warned that the question of the efficiency of the commission will re-emerge when there are 30 states or more in the EU.

   Reinfeldt is right on both counts, of course. But his Swedish frankness may not go down well with the Government, who are running their Lisbon campaign on a theme of “vote yes to keep your commissioner”. Revealing four weeks before polling that there is likely no immediate threat to an Irish commissioner, even if we vote no to Lisbon, is the type of honest political assessment so rarely displayed during referendum campaigns in Ireland.

    Scaremongering is emerging as a key tactic on both sides of the second Lisbon debate with yes campaigners arguing Ireland’s entire economic and political future is at risk while no campaigners warn Lisbon will introduce abortion and lead to a deluge of migrants. If only we could import a little bit of Swedish rationalism to our debates surely the quality of our democracy would be much higher.

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• Ireland’s wartime legacy and the EU

  September 1, 2009 @ 10:08 pm | by Jamie

   

  Today is the 70^th anniversary of the start of world war II and many EU leaders have gathered in Poland to commemorate the loss of 50 million lives. 

   The war ultimately led to the creation of the EU as politicians sought a way to bind France and Germany together to prevent the type of big power competition that so tragically dominated the first half of the 20^th century.

   The significance of the commemoration in Gdansk was not lost on MEPs who returned from their holidays after the summer break. 

  “Thanks to the EU, we have witnessed 60 years of peace and prosperity,” said Joseph Daul, chairman of the EPP group in the European Parliament, who comes from the symbolically important city of Strasbourg on the French-German border.

   The critical role the EU has played in creating a stable and peaceful Europe is much appreciated in continental Europe, which suffered the worst of the ravages of two world wars. It also explains why countries such as France and Poland want to build up a strong common European defence policy.

  Back home in Ireland there is far less attention on the anniversary of the war, principally because Eamon de Valera’s Ireland chose not to take part. At the time the Irish secretary at the ministry for external affairs Joe Walshe explained the decision by saying: “small nations like Ireland do not and cannot assume a role as defenders of just causes except (their) own… Existence of our own people comes before all other considerations.”

   Staying out of the war was morally questionable while De Valera’s condolence call to the German embassy when Hitler died is still a source of national shame. But Ireland’s historical experience of British rule and subsequent strict adherence to neutrality still shapes Irish attitudes to the EU, which came to the fore during the first Lisbon referendum campaign last June.

   The traditional argument in favour of the EU as a peace building body simply fails to excite Irish people as its does the French or Germans. There is also public antipathy to any talk of building a common EU defence or increasing Europe’s military capacities to help it play a stronger global role.

   So it is no surprise that in the run up to the second vote on Lisbon on October 2^nd the yes campaign is focusing on tangible arguments in favour of the EU such as jobs and investment while avoiding any talk of EU defence policy.

   Whether these arguments are strong enough to engender the type of emotional commitment to the European project that is seen in countries like France and Germany remains to be seen on October 2^nd.  

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