Is war with Iran inevitable?
The G8 has finally ended and I’m sitting on an ATR 42- 500 Italian customs police plane, which is usually used to spot illegal immigrants crossing the Med to Italy from Africa, with President Barroso and his advisers flying back to Rome.
It’s been a whirlwind three days of briefings, press conferences and long bus trips shuttling between the G8 conference centre and our hotel late at night and early in the morning. Due to security concerns and fear of earthquakes the Italians put all the journalists in hotels at least 1.5 hours drive from the conference centre in the shattered town of L’Aquila.
Behind all the headlines on climate change, food security and world trade, a dominant theme at the meeting is the decisive shift in power to big developing countries China, India and Brazil.The key talks on climate change took place outside the G8, which includes only the industrialised states Britain, France, US, Germany, Canada, Japan, Russia and Italy. The five biggest developing states China, Brazil, India, South Africa and Mexico- in the format known as the G5- were all invited to take part on Thursday. This is a clear acknowledgement that no deal can be achieved without getting three of the top five emitters of greenhouse gases onboard. Obama, Sarkozy, Merkel and Berlusconi all acknowledged at the end of the summit that the G8 is not a viable format anymore to deal with the big issues facing the world. But there is still debate over the right format to thrash out issues such as climate change, financial regulation and the economy.The French and Italians favour the G14. Merkel favours the G20 while the Japanese want to keep the G8 format – probably to keep their big regional rival China out in the cold.
I don’t think the G8 will be disbanded anytime soon because it offers the main western powers a format within which they can engage in intimate, informal setting to discuss sensitive political issues such as Iran.
I didn’t write a lot about Iran over the last three days but I’ve heard there was a very frank discussion on the first evening when Obama and Sarkozy tried to persuade Russia to get tough on Tehran.
It was also revealed that Obama will convene a nuclear forum next March to discuss nuclear proliferation – a move that is destined to crank up the pressure on Iran over its ongoing nuclear programme.
Senior diplomats I spoke to at the G8 said the US was not for turning on its opposition to Iran building a nuclear weapon. And its close ally Israel has already made it clear that it will take military action to prevent
Tehran building a bomb.
By extending the hand of friendship in the early days of his presidency Obama clearly wants a negotiated settlement. But if US overtures are rejected many G8 diplomats say military action is probably inevitable in the future.
The prospects of a negotiated settlement don’t look good after the recent crack down by hardliners following the disputed election result. I suspect Iran will prove to be the biggest test for Obama’s foreign policy, which in so many fields has eschewed the Bush doctrine of igoring allies and going it alone.
It will also be a major test for America’s allies, who may have to chose whether to join a coalition of the willing or risk a split with Obama over Iran.
