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  • irishtimes.com - Posted: December 11, 2008 @ 6:15 pm

    Lisbon – first prediction

    Harry McGee

    For confirmation on the high success rate of my predictions, see past blogs passim (I jest!).

    However, I feel that the referendum late next year will be passed but very narrowly, thanks to a very long sickly sincere I-feel-you-pain campaign conducted by the Yes side.

    I also predict that the more Declan Ganley is knocked and mocked the more his legend will grow. He is NOT the de facto leader of the No campaign. But he will become just that, unless the media stop building him up.

    • dealga says:

      “He is NOT the de facto leader of the No campaign. But he will become just that, unless the media stop building him up.”

      Er, a quick email to some of your colleagues might achieve that.

    • Harry says:

      I was wondering to whom I was going to award the smartypants of the year award. Dealga is referring to an email I sent out to colleagues and contacts to let them know about the new email @ irishtimes.com. Because I forgot to bcc it, one person objected. That act set off a ripple (ok a tidal wave) of hilarious and irreverent correspondence, mostly from colleagues in the Indo. Cringe!

    • Ste says:

      It is going to be a classic psychological battle where NO voters argue other NO voters into voting YES. The YES voters will just sit back and enjoy the show.

    • Brian Boru says:

      I voted no and the proposed changes do not go far enough. The problem is the elephant in the room – the Charter of Fundamental Rights. We must have a Protocol opting Ireland out of it completely, like Poland and the UK. Gerard Hogan SC was referenced in your newspaper on April 24th as saying that the Charter could “eclipse” the Irish Supreme Court, depending on how the ECJ interpreted it. To all intents and purposes, the ECJ will be our real Supreme Court unless we vote no to Lisbon. But I agree with you on one thing – what doesn’t kill you makes you stronger and the attacks on Ganley – especially by Fianna Fáil over funding (the irony!) – will make him stronger as Irish people like the rebel taking on the Establishment (as befits our history). The bottom line for me is that I don’t want questions of asylum and immigration, the right to strike, employment rights, medical ethics etc. being decided in a court where the Irish judge is outnumbered 26-1, and whose philophosies on these issues may differ from Irish norms.

    • Keith says:

      It was all the talk of the Labour Party Christmas drinks last night, Harry. ;)

    • Bryan says:

      Hi Harry. Who do you think will lead the ‘I feel your pain’ campaign? Brian Cowen just doesn’t strike me like the ‘man of the people’ type. Don’t people already associate the Taoiseach, Tánaiste, and Finance Minister with the economic downturn? How much trust do they still have?

      I reckon that if the Yes side is going to succeed, they need a Mary Lou McDonald type of person. One individual who they come to respect and trust. If instead they get a bunch of politicians from rival parties trying to one-up each other, I think the No side will win again and the legend of Ganley will become even more exaggerated.

      Maybe the Government should try to get Sinn Fein on board and make Mary Lou the Yes side’s spokesperson. Or is that just me demonstrating how little I understand Irish history and politics?

    • Keith says:

      @Bryan

      Respect and trust Mary Lou McDonald? Are you mad?


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