outsidein

Obama, Clinton and Change

December 3, 2008 @ 11:00 am | by Bryan

President-elect Barack Obama with secretary of state-designate Hillary Clinton as he introduces her at a news conference in Chicage yesterday. Photograph: Charles Dharapak/AP

I realise that I’m definitely behind the curve here, but I can’t let this go. It has finally been announced that Hilary Clinton is going to become the next US Secretary of State. And there has surprisingly been much less criticism of this decision than I expected.

I’ll just come out and say that I think the right person was chosen for the job. She did really well in the primaries, and had she won the party nomination, she would be the president. With that kind of support, I think the noble thing to do is to give Mrs Clinton an important role that she is happy with.

Having said that, there has been some criticism about the Obama cabinet not representing the change that he spoke about during the campaign. I wonder how long the honeymoon will last before the media begins to do what it does and become more critical of Obama. I guess it’s only right to wait until he actually becomes the president.

I think the change message was deliberately vague. By deliberately vague I’m not implying anything sinister. Just that Barack Obama is very pragmatic and will do a good job of making the most of the institutions and presidential powers that already exist. He is a law professor, not a radical. So off course it makes sense that he is going to pick his staff based on who he thinks will do the best job, not based on who has the most radical ideas.

I bet that the Obama administration will be aiming for 8 boring years in which very predictable and deliberate ‘changes’ occur, but nothing too bold. By the time he leaves office, he’ll probably have balanced the budget, kept out of unnecessary wars, and maybe two or three other tangible accomplishments. The rest of his success will come from having fine tuned the country.

There will be change, but it probably won’t come in the form that some people were expecting.

16 Comments »

December 3, 2008
12:54 pm

A fair analysis Bryan and i agree that change will be incremental and not radical. But i also believe that his appointments so far have been clear attempts to get a broad range of perspectives around the one table. Seeing all sides of the argument makes ones arguments stronger and ones decisions more acceptable and balanced.

Comment by michaelstrasb

December 3, 2008
2:05 pm

You’re right, Bryan. We all need to wait to see some actual results. But already Obama has raised a lot of hopes and brings new optimism to America.

Before the banking meltdown, I didn’t think Obama would be elected. Maybe the pain of the economy boosted his support. McCain’s bad handling of the crisis cost him some support.

Also, before the meltdown, in a bar in Dunmore, Co. Galway, I said that if elected, Obama would not be allowed to change things significanty. The Pentagon budget is greater than the combined military budgets of the rest of the world. I didn’t see how the big contractors would back away from that feeding trough. But again, the economy may provide the way for real change. Budget deficits are nolonger the main concern. Survival of America as an influential nation is in the balance.

Hillary is a good choice, intelligent, well liked and admired around the world. Like a number of other Obama picks, although familiar with the ways of D.C., she wasn’t part of the government that wrecked America.

Time will tell, but the past 25 years have divided America seriously. On your side of the pond, the depth of hatred in Middle America may be hard to see. But even here in NYC, I heard calls for Obama’s assassination.

Whatever… The sun is shining now.

Comment by Des Johnson

December 3, 2008
2:37 pm

“By the time he leaves office, he’ll probably have balanced the budget, kept out of unnecessary wars, and maybe two or three other tangible accomplishments. The rest of his success will come from having fine tuned the country.”

Jeez Bryan, If he can achieve all of that while in office he will be an unqualified success! America is far from fine-tuned and probably never will be again. But if he balances the books and makes the world a more peaceful place well then job done I reckon.

The world is broken. Only Bono can make it better now!

ps. Is it just me or does it look Obama and Hillary are just seconds away from tonsil tennis in that photo?!?

Comment by NaRocRoc

December 3, 2008
2:59 pm

Surrounding himself with a Clinton era cabinet, all to the right of Obama (who is himself more likely centre right than centre left, even on the US political compass), exposes the fraud that was his message of ‘change’.

The current economic disaster has its roots as far back as the first Bush at least, Clinton’s reign was entirely complicit, Bush the second only exacerbated the situation.

And as far as foreign policy is concerned, it’s easy to forget that the post 9/11 world was a result of America’s worldwide unpopularity pre 9/11. Clintonian policies are no drastic departure.

Obama pulled the wool over our eyes.

Comment by David

December 3, 2008
4:27 pm

What an appalling mistake on Obama’s part. She is precisely the wrong person for the job and should be confined to history. I am no longer optimistic about Obama’s presidency.

Comment by Ray D

December 3, 2008
7:14 pm

Michael - I’ve been impressed by his self confidence. You don’t assemble such a strong cast unless you are very sure of yourself. I think they’ll all manage to work well together.

Des - Wow! I had no idea the feelings were so strong. It’s incredible how important money is to people. I think you’re right - the desire for financial recovery has made Obama palatable to people who would have been unable to andle having him for their president.

NaRocRoc - Do you think we should get Bono to organise a big group hug concert to fix the world? Maybe get us all singing kumbaya and holding hands?

As for Barack and Hilary, ever since they put the primaries behind them, they look awfully cosy together. Michelle can’t possibly be happy! Bill probably hasn’t noticed.

David - I think that’s a little harsh, but I understand why you feel that way. But what if this is a case of taking the only available path? Everything about Obama was new. Maybe he needs to do this to be able to get things done in Washington. Jimmy Carter was hamstrung by his poor relationship with Washington.

There are no easy answers, but I really do understand how you feel.

Ry - Why? What’s wrong with Hilary?

Comment by Bryan

December 4, 2008
4:18 am

Bryan,

I have to respectfully disagree with Des on one point. Hillary Clinton played a major role in the economic mess the US, and most of the world find themselve. The Congress, not the President pass laws and policies, many of which were passed under Bill Clinton, that led to the downfall of wall street. To be more specific, Senator Dodd, Congressman Rangel, and Senator Kennedy all played a major role in introducing legislation which is directly responsible for the mess we now find ourselfs in. I know for folks like Des, who is a die-hard democrat (I assume American Citizens?) who see all the worlds problems as GW Bush’s fault. Des, unless you have my background of 23 years of Goverment service, you need to spend more time understanding just who passes the laws in the US. It was a “Joint Effort” by both sides of the house which led to the failure, and yes that means your beloved Obama & Clinton. While the world saw this mess greeping up, these two ran for President. Now, with that point covered, I agree with many of President Obama’s picks, including Hillary. On Foriegn Affairs, she leans right, which after the attacks in India, should remind the world, we are living in dangerous times. General Jim Jones was an outstanding Marine who will be a great fit as the National Security Chief. Keeping Gates at the Pentegon is a good move as well. The Iraq War is all but over with the agreement reached last week in Baghdad. US combat forces will be removed from the area by late next year, with only support forces to assist the Iraqi Security Forces remaining. The focus will shift to Afganistain, which will be the first major test for Obama. He will have no time to sit back and guess. Should the US be attacked in his first four years, he ill be seen as a weak failure and will not win re-election in 2012. I do agree that his picks represent a well rounded group who’s ideas may be very different then Obama’s. This is a good thing when it comes to making critical descions. Obama’s world has changed dramacticllay. He now receives detailed briefings which outine major threats the US and its allys our facing. I suspect his choices have much to do with these eye opening reports. He will do well if he allows his cabinet to provide constructive input. Bottomline, if Obama fails, America fails, and that means the free world fails.

Comment by DHF5811

December 4, 2008
1:07 pm

To DHF5811:

Much of your analysis is thoughtful and on the money. But much has the taint of Fox News and RNC talking points. Hill and Bill and Dems responsible for the bankers’ mess? For “opaque third phase products,” so called “securitized derivatives?” The world’s richest man, Warren Buffett, never touched them because, as he said, he didn’t understand them.

After serious losses in two election cycles, it’s time for the American Republican Party (GOP) to get its act together, and move into the real world. America needs more than one-party. America needs a healthy GOP, purged of hate and superstition, purged of small-minded, propaganda factories. As long as its tacticians indulge in rabble-rousing tripe, the GOP will continue to diminish.

When I got my first mortgage, I imagine the bank manager threw the papers in a safe and left them there. More recently, the geniuses of American banks bundled mortgages together and sold them on as investment packages—“securitised derivatives.”

For a broader view of the economic crisis, read Alan (Fed Reserve) Greenspan’s own testimony on his guilt (too much money for too long at too low interest rates). His actions fed a frenzy in property development. And, blinkered libertarian that he is, he thought the banks would be smart enough to regulate themselves.

Read about predatory and totally irresponsible lending, and the almost universal condemnation of the bank pirates who had the philosophy of IBG YBG: I’ll be gone, and you’ll be gone from the scene when this bubble bursts. Of course they’re gone, unidentifiable, with large compensations, at the tax payer’s expense.

Read the apologies of Cox of the SEC on his error in lifting the limits on bank leverage—too much lending with inadequate reserves.

Read the condemnations of the rating agencies that gave AAA status to thousands of “securitised derivatives,” thereby fooling foreign banks and investment groups (e.g., in Ireland) into thinking them safe.

Next, read that America has been in recession for 12 months, and factor in the pre-recession decline that blew away the jobs of many and eroded the spending-power of many more. While Bush was praising the economy, the top 10% got richer and poverty spread. Hard to pay a mortgage when you’ve lost your job.

The banks were also exposed because they had large outstanding credit card debt. There was a systemic problem, one that combined stupidity with consumerism and the demand for instant gratification, a problem that was more acute and deadly in the banking system. Enron redux, but on an international scale.

Americans combined to make a serious mess. Some should be named and shamed. Some should be jailed.

Comment by Des Johnson

December 4, 2008
4:03 pm

She is a relic from the past and should be left there. Also she is the classic famous for being famous person and has little to contribute.

Comment by Ray D

10.

December 5, 2008
12:52 pm

DHF5811 & Des - Thanks. You have no idea how much I enjoy seeing ideas clash and smart people butting heads over ideas in a ‘non-personal’ way. I would love to sit in a pub and have a beer with you two and watch you go at it for a couple of hours.

Ray - You don’t always choose to be famous. The truth is that had her husband not been president, she may have never risen to fame. But something similar could be said of Bobby Kennedy, Ted Kennedy, GW Bush, Sarah Palin, and half of Ireland’s politicians. That does not mean these people have, or don’t have any of their own talent. She was an accomplished lawyer before she became famous and she nearly beat Obama to the presidency, so she must have lots going for her.

Personally, I like the idea of a clean slate, but Obama has obviously gone down the experience route. I can see the wisdom of that decision as well as the Cinto decision, even if they may not have been my first choice necessarily. But I think you characterization of Clinton is harsh.

Comment by Bryan

11.

December 5, 2008
5:41 pm

Bryan,

My next visit to Ireland is 2009, I’ll look you up for that beer.

Des, good points, however you must admit Congress failed in its duties to stop the foreseen financial crisis. As for FOX or the RNC, I’m an independant, and very proud of it. Anyone who commits to one party limits themselves to open dialogue. for example, I felt Bill Clinton was good for the US on the domestic side, however his failure to see the rise of Bin Laden, even after numerous attacks, shows his failure in the foriegn arena. Most Europeans liked him becuase they saw him as a playboy, an funny. On the other hand, most Europeans our terrified of Bush. Honestly, I supported Huckabee in the primarys, but also felt Hillary Clinton would have made a good President. My support now is totaly with Obama as all Americans should. He’s our President, duly elected by the people and deserves our respect, and support. I also admire his approach in bringing different ideas to the cabinet. He’s a bright young man who has the potential to be a great President.

I’ll drink a beer for both Bryan & Des this evening.

DHF5811

Comment by DHF5811

12.

December 8, 2008
2:09 pm

I’ll be back in Galway and Donegal next spring.

Is Hole in The Wall still in business?

Comment by Des Johnson

13.

December 8, 2008
8:38 pm

Des & DHF5811 - I’ll find out about Hole in the Wall. Let me know when you’re coming. I’m buying the first one.

Comment by Bryan

14.

December 9, 2008
4:31 pm

The Hole in the Wall is still in business, but very much populated by the much younger generation. No judgment if that’s your bag.

I was in NY recently and noticed how much hope and optimism Obama has inspired in the American people, and, no matter what he does, surely the fact that he was elected is the biggest sign of change the US has ever seen?

I don’t think anyone’s under any illusions that Obama’s going to transform the entire country, but we’ll all have to hope he does what he can.

Hillary was an odd choice, but we’ll see where they go together - perhaps it’ll be a beautiful friendship, and an even more beautiful political alliance.

Comment by Rosemary

15.

December 10, 2008
12:03 am

Hmmmm… we might need to find another venue. Any suggestions Rosemary?

You’re right. Hope is huge. Anmd I think Hilary and Barack will probably end up with a really good working relationship if they don’t have one already. I think the Obama administration can be the beginning of something and can potentially inspire the country to move in a new direction, but but I’m not holding out for anything earth shattering.

Comment by Bryan

16.

December 10, 2008
12:39 am

Bryan,

How about meeting at Garvey’s Bar on the corner there next to the square in Galway?? Its my wife and I’s favorite during our travels there. Mainly due to the American Football games they show on TV there. (Yes I’m and Ohio State fan!!) Perhaps afater solving many worldly issues we can view a game over a pint of Harp. Perhaps then we’ll have a better understanding of where the new Obama Admininstration is heading.

DHF5811

Comment by DHF5811