outsidein

• Disaster

  October 10, 2008 @ 9:15 am | by Bryan

  I don’t know about the rest of you, but I’ve started to think about how this economic slowdown will directly affect my family and I in the coming months. It is growing menacingly from a theoretical concept into an uncomfortable reality.

  That said, every now and again something happens which gives me a renewed sense of perspective. Yesterday, that perspective came in the form of a headline and a text message from a friend in Australia; both were about Zimbabwe’s inflation figure for July which reached 231 million per cent. The icing on that cake is that official figures are always massaged down and the country still doesn’t have a functioning government. Great.

  One of Zimbabwe’s most famous musicians, Thomas Mapfumo, released a very popular song years ago called Disaster. In the song, he repeats a line that can’t really be translated without losing the depth of its meaning. The closest I can come to a decent translation is: Houston, we have a problem.

  The sad reality is that as painful as a global recession may be in a place like Ireland, it could be disastrous in struggling states. Let’s hope that doesn’t happen.

  Comments (0)

• An ANC Split?

  October 9, 2008 @ 9:30 am | by Bryan

  

  CAPE TOWN/SOUTH AFRICA, 4JUN08 - Thabo Mbeki. Copyright World Economic Forum/Eric Miller.

  South Africa’s political landscape has been interesting since the resignation of former president Thabo Mbeki. According to former Defence Minister, Mosiuoa Lekota, there is a good chance that the ruling African National Congress (ANC) will split.

  Surprisingly, the thought of an ANC split is sometimes reported as a bad thing. I think a split in that liberation movement party would be a fantastic thing for South Africa. While the country has a solid democracy, the opposition is weak and tends to resemble civil society rather than credible political opposition. The dominance of one party would be greatly diminished with a split and it may be just what South Africa needs.

  With all due respect to Thabo Mbeki and Jacob Zuma, no single person will ever be able to lead as well uncontested as when their ideas and policies are challenged. With that in mind, I really hope South African politics see a seismic shift in the weeks to come.

  Comments (3)

• In favour of Town Hall meetings

  October 8, 2008 @ 6:32 pm | by Bryan

  

  I’ve been accused of being biased in favour of Obama when it comes to the US Presidential race. And the truth is that I am. I like Obama, and I think he and Biden would be better for the rest of the world than Mcain and Palin.

  That said, I must agree with McCain when it comes to Town Hall meetings. Last night’s debate has been called ‘boring’, but I think it was a really good event compared to some of the others. Yes, both candidates insisted on sticking to their talking points which have, at this stage, become tired.

  But… and it is a big ‘but’, last night’s debate, for me, was the one that has most resembled a serious, reasoned Presidential debate. I don’t thing the ‘fun’ factor should trump ‘seriousness’ and substance. And the more these events resemble TV contests, the less meanigful and helpful they are.

  So there it is. I think that on this issue, John McCain is right, Obama is wrong, and there should be more Town Hall meetings.

  You can watch last nights Town Hall style debate here.

  Comments (4)

• Change?

  October 7, 2008 @ 2:28 pm | by Bryan

  

  Trader Simone Wallmeyer works at the Frankfurt Stock Exchange in Frankfurt, Germany, October 6. Stocks tumbled around the world, the euro fell the most against the yen since its debut and oil dropped below $90 a barrel as the yearlong credit market seizure caused bank bailouts to spread through Europe. Photo: Hannelore Foerster/Bloomberg News

  Michael Power, a strategist at Investec Asset Management in South Africa, wrote a very interesting opinion piece for Business Day a couple of weeks ago. He starts off by looking at the unrealistic dependence of the global financial system on America and then looks at what may occur going forward. His central thesis is that the world as we know it must change.

  There is a school of thought, expounded by Naomi Klein in The Shock Doctrine, that believes major disasters present an opportunity for significant shifts in ideology and policy. Many have already begun to ask, in view of the credit crunch and its effects all over the world, are things going to change? Will the belief that ‘greed is good’ and that the free market is the best way to run the world’s economy survive?

  And what implications will the answers to the above have for global and national inequality? If large financial institutions cannot be allowed to fail, is it justifiable that people are allowed to live in poverty? Again, if governments can guarantee financial instruments made up of risky mortgages, why can’t they guarantee that the individuals who took out those mortgages get to keep their homes?

  Power believes that in a few years the global financial landscape will be very different. I doubt it will. I think that if there is a type of revolution, it will be of the Animal Farm variety. The focus of attention may shift from America to China. Banks could be nationalised in whole or in part. But because greed is powerful, it will remain good in the eyes of many. There will be no radical ideological shift. The world will probably remain as is. The only difference may be that Napoleon replaces Mr Jones.

  Comments (2)

• A Thought

  October 6, 2008 @ 9:15 am | by Bryan

  “The ideas of economists and political philosophers, both when they are right and when they are wrong, are more powerful than is commonly understood. Indeed the world is ruled by little else. Madmen in authority, who hear voices in the air, are distilling their frenzy from some academic scribbler of a few years back. I am sure that the power of vested interests is vastly exaggerated compared with the gradual encroachment of ideas. Not, indeed, immediately, but after a certain interval; for in the field of economic and political philosophy there are not many who are influenced by new theories after they are twenty-five or thirty years of age, so that the ideas which civil servants and politicians and even agitators apply are not likely to be the newest. But, soon or late, it is ideas, not vested interests, which are dangerous for good and evil.”

  -John Maynard Keynes

  Comments (2)

• Picture of the week

  October 4, 2008 @ 9:00 am | by Bryan

  

  A demonstrator stands outside the New York Stock Exchange during a protest, while U.S. lawmakers met to vote on a $700 billion bailout of the financial industry, in New York September 29. Photo: Shannon Stapleton/REUTERS

  Comments (4)

• Vice Presidential Debate

  October 3, 2008 @ 8:44 am | by Bryan

  http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=89FbCPzAsRA&rel=0

  What do you think?

  Comments (8)

• Brian Lenihan

  October 2, 2008 @ 9:00 am | by Bryan

  

  Minister for Finance Brian Lenihan at the press conference in Dublin on Tuesday at which he announced the Government’s rescue plan. The Government pledged to guarantee deposits and debts totalling €400 billion at six Irish-owned lenders to protect the Irish financial system after bank shares suffered their greatest fall in more than a quarter-century on Monday. Photograph: Sasko Lazarov/Photocall Ireland

  Brian Lenihan has been criticized quite a bit since taking charge of the finance ministry. There were questions asked about his knowledge of financial matters as well as his past record. It seems now that he isn’t getting as much credit as he deserves for his intervention in the Irish financial system’s crisis of confidence.

  Guaranteeing the liabilities of domestic banks was a very bold move. It may even have been a critical intervention. And the move has not gone unnoticed beyond this country’s borders. It was interesting to note the calls in Britain for that country’s government to follow Lenihan’s lead and guarantee the liabilities of British Banks.

  In what has been an interesting week or so with respect to the global economy, I can’t help but wonder where we go from here. With their backs to the wall, government has shown how resourceful and decisive it can be. I do not agree with some of the decisions that have been made, but I have been impressed nonetheless by the resolve to ‘fix’ things.

  The flip side of that is the contrast such decisiveness and determination paints when one thinks of how day to day problems are handled. As an individual, I’m great at crisis management but am not as diligent when things are going well and when I am under little pressure. It’s scary to think governments are just as bad, if not worse.

  I wonder how many ‘it should have been addressed during the boom years’ comments we’ll hear in the months to come.

  Comments (6)

• Campaign Trail 2008

  October 1, 2008 @ 9:37 am | by Bryan

  For those of you who are following the US Presidential race, Denis has started a blog on that very subject. It’s very well written and is following the race in much more detail than this blog. I highly recommend it. If you haven’t already done so, you can check it out here. 

  Comments (0)

• Charities on TV

  @ 9:15 am | by Bryan

  I HATE most charity adverts on TV, especially the ones for organizations involved in development work. They typically open with very sad music and then show a solitary person in a desolate setting. The person in the advert, child or adult, is miserable, looks like they are carrying the weight of the world on their shoulders, has obvious signs of malnutrition, and is often accompanied by a swarm of flies.

  I must confess, I have been accused of being ‘overly optimistic’ by some friends who work in the development field. A common response to the above criticism is that there are people in those situations who are helped daily by hard working charities. Fair enough. Another criticism is that people just won’t give money if any other picture is portrayed. That, I think, is rubbish.

  I know the ‘help the starving black babies in Africa’ routine is tried and tested. But the world has changed and a lot of those ‘black babies’ are now adults who, in many circumstances, are trying to work their way out of poverty. Since it is now almost a requirement of political correctness for organizations to say they work in partnership with groups in recipient countries, why does the advertising seldom reflect that? Why don’t we see local people who are building their communities in those adverts? Aren’t most people more likely to invest in ‘hopeful causes’; in people who already have initiative and drive?

  When people whose aim is to help foster development propagate negative stereotypes of the people they are meant to be helping, I get really frustrated. Those adverts do more than just solicit funds. They also inform many people’s view of the world.

  I can’t wait to see a really positive fundraising campaign. There is no shortage of the other type.

  Comments (17)