There is much money to be made in predicting trends, and in the US a firm of consultants has recently posted their clairvoyant notions (this is a pdf file) of what will be big next year.
In the US, if they are to believed, fried chicken (in various guises and borrowing from South-East Asia) is the Next Big Thing. It will, they say, replace belly pork, which can’t be a bad thing. And they say that “organic” is becoming a bit debased, so “local” and “artisan” will be the new trigger words for the well-heeled.
The following is their list of “buzz words” for food in 2010:
Authentic Neapolitan pizza. Lamb riblets. Too many food
trucks, not enough curb space. Latino street food. Farmed trout creeps up on farmed
salmon. Curry- and Indian-spiced fried chicken. Vietnamese sandwiches (bahn mi).
Gelati. Global comfort food. Artisan hot dogs. Made-to-order ice cream. Chefs turned
butchers. Casual comfort. Touch-screen kiosks and home delivery in fast food outlets.
Latino street food. Wood oven cooking. More energy drinks and adulterated waters.
Mood food. Backyard and rooftop bee hives. Stevia. Kimchee. Urban farms. Griddled
burgers. Free food. House-made everything, especially in sandwiches.
Lamb riblets? Er… I can’t see a whole lot of these catching on in good ole Yerp. Stevia… yeah, right. But I think they are right about “local” and “artisan”. Good restaurants in Ireland have been thinking along these lines for over a year at this stage.
According to a recent study, 2000 Irish pubs will close over the next ten years. This should not be a cause for much grief. We are not talking about the classic, old Irish pub, the likes of Mulligan’s of Poolbeg Street or The Gravediggers or (I hope) my local (when in Dublin), Locky’s (aka O’Loughlin’s) which is opposite St Michael’s Hospital in Dun Laoghaire. These are honest, old-fashioned boozers with a period charm. They may be relics of a past age but I would hope that this particular quality – and the very personal service, sensitive to the locality -is what will save them.
No, the kind of pubs that I want to see vanishing are those soul-less, characterless, charmless establishments which provide merely drink and Sky TV and damn all else, complacent, wildly over-valued establishments that have traditionally commanded a commercial value way beyond their contribution to the sum of human happiness. If they provide food it’s a ham and cheese sandwich (both of the plastic sort) which can be toasted in a cellophane bag. And if they provide wine, it’s 185ml bottles of Chilean plonk. They are the kind of places in which the few remaining customers must surely ask themselves if they would be better off (in every sense) at home.
The publicans still wield considerable political power. They scuppered Michael McDowell’s plans for an Irish “cafe society”. But their economic power is waning and let us hope that soon they will be irrelevant. I don’t think any tears should be shed.
The pubs that will survive are the ones that innovate. The pubs that serve micro-brewed beer, real food, proper wine. And, of course, the ones with real character and personality, to which food (beyond a bag of peanuts, if you’re lucky) is as alien as a wine-of-the-week, and which have not innovated since, at the very least, 1945. All the dross in the middle will go, praise the Lord!
The big new trend in Irish eating, I’m pretty sure, will be pubs that do real food. We have already seen what Olivier Quenet (formerly of Guilbaud’s) is doing in Vaughan’s of Terenure (and now above O’Brien’s on Leeson Street) and a new pub restaurant is opening this week at The Arches in Churchtown. I hear that the Exchequer Bar is doing potted crab… The trend has started and we’re going to see a lot more of this kind of thing. Pubs have the space, the licence (don’t get me started) and the economic imperative (aka the overdraft) to look at food in a different way. Farewell the toasted sandwich and the carvery. Hello the gastropub.