Lisbon Watch »

• Agressive tactics on both sides stimulate public interest

  September 30, 2009 @ 2:47 pm | by Eoin Burke Kennedy

  Pro-Lisbon groups are still dominating coverage of the referendum campaign in the print media, according to the latest and final TNS MediaMarket survey before the vote.

  The agency’s latest media report, which analysed press coverage over the last seven days, found Yes campaigners accounted for 53 per cent of column inches in the national and Sunday press media, a rise of 7 per cent on the previous week.

  The survey indicated the No side commanded just 15 per cent of the coverage, down eight points on the previous week, its weakest performance in the four weeks of the campaign proper.

  Possible changes to Ireland’s taxation system and the guarantees secured by the Government remained the key debating points. But workers rights also re-emerged as a top-ten issue, with 49 articles featuring in the debate during the week.

  Researchers said the No campaign suffered over the last seven days, with Declan Ganley “unable to turn the tide in the press”.

  The survey said 19 per cent of Ganley’s coverage resulted in a “No outcome”, but more than 50 per cent of his coverage was “neutralised”, in part by criticism from Yes groups.

  Sinn Féin was the highest driver of press coverage on the No side, though the party’s stance on Lisbon received a number of attacks, most notably from Labour’s Eamonn Gilmore.

  Socialist Party MEP Joe Higgins, came fourth in the No campaigner’s league.

  Much of the strong showing on the Yes side was driven by Fianna Fáil, with 48 per cent of its coverage resulting in what the survey deemed “pro-ratification articles”.

  Fine Gael and Labour also produced a strong week in terms of pro-Lisbon reportage.

  Ryanair boss Michael O’Leary was also prominent for the Yes campaign again this week forcing his way back into the top-five pro-Lisbon campaigner’s league.

  However, Mr O’Leary suffered several strong attacks from Mr Higgins and Mr Ganley at an expense to the Yes campaign.

  TNS MediaMarket spokesman Dan Halliwell said: “Both sides have employed controversial and aggressive tactics to impact column inches within the newspapers, and there is no doubt that there is a greater public interest as a result.”

  “Only time will tell if the efforts of both sides are reflected in the outcome, we look forward to seeing the results.”

  Comments (22)

• Is that what Phil Lynott died for?

  September 29, 2009 @ 6:02 pm | by Eoin Burke Kennedy

  

  Après Match on Lisbon!

  Comments (14)

• Ganley and De Rossa fisticuffs?

  September 28, 2009 @ 11:53 am | by Eoin Burke Kennedy

  

  Just how close Labour MEP Proinsias De Rossa and Libertas leader Declan Ganley came to blows yesterday remains a matter of speculation.

  The duo were involved in a bitter war of words following a debate on Newstalk’s Wide Angle show.

  The argument spilled out of the Newstalk studio in Dublin City centre, down the stairs and out on to the street with both men trading insults.

  Ganley is said to have called De Rossa “a f****ing traitor” and to have taunted him about his republican background.

  De Rossa apparently said that while Ganley liked to point out he was Irish, he had “an English accent”.

  Several bemused passersby witnessed the pair squaring up to each other and shouting expletives in each other’s faces.

  The People Before Profit Alliance councillor Richard Boyd Barrett, who was also a guest on the show, tried to mediate between the pair, repeatedly calling on both men to calm down, according to witnesses.

  Boyd Barret and the radio station later denied reports that the dispute had become physical.

  The temperature of the on-air debate noticeably rose during the last segment when De Rossa raised Ganley’s putative links to the US establishment.

  Newstalk is said to have recorded video footage of the altercation outside its studio, but there is no sound on the clip.

  
  

  Comments (5)

• COIR Blimey!

  September 23, 2009 @ 4:00 pm | by Eoin Burke Kennedy

  

  COIR become the latest victims of a spoofer with a keen grasp of Photoshop

  

  Surely not?

  

  Hmmm….

  

  

  Comments (21)

• Yes posters cunningly altered to distort meaning

  September 21, 2009 @ 5:12 pm | by Eoin Burke Kennedy

  

  Several Ireland For Europe campaign posters were taken hostage last week by some devious No campaigner who deftly reconfigured the group’s message.

  The pro-Lisbon group’s soft non-threatening images of young people smiling over captions, such as “The Choice Is Yours”, studiously avoid any sententious sloganeering and steer clear of telling the younger demographic just how to vote.

  But some errant No campaigner, armed with a step ladder, added a bubble with the message “It’s simple. This time do what you’re told” to several posters in Galway, completely upending the group’s message.

  The attachments were produced in similar colours and typefaces so as to blend in with the original poster.

  Until now there have been few dirty tricks in the poster campaign arena, with the notable exception of the “No to Nuts” stunt in Dublin.

  No one has yet claimed responsibility for this series of anti-Cóir posters, depicting a monkey holding a placard emblazoned with the words “No to Nuts”, and including the message “Are Cóir driving you nuts, Vote Yes to Lisbon”.

  The posters, which were erected along several of the capital’s busiest thoroughfares last week, have been taken down by Dublin City Council.

  Cóir has accused Yes campaigners of illegally taking down its posters in several areas across the country.

  Comments (5)

• McCreevy’s nocturnal habits upset by treaty

  September 18, 2009 @ 6:40 pm | by Eoin Burke Kennedy

  

  Last time around, he caused a furore when boldly stating he hadn’t even read the treaty, and doubting whether any sane person would.

  Today, McCreevy blagged to reporters that he had done little else but read the treaty over the last six months , and was now well-versed in its many appendices and annexes.

  “My wife Noleen has said to me on repeated occasions, would ever leave down that Lisbon Treaty, and go and make me a cup of tea.”

  “My wife is very upset with me…I haven’t spoken to her in months because I’m in the bed reading this treaty all night.”

  He was a little more serious later in an address to a seminar hosted by Dublin legal firm Eversheds O’Donnell Sweeney when he warned of the potential damage to Ireland’s image among international investors if the country votes No again.

  He said that as the ballot boxes are opened on October 3rd, the focus of the international media on Ireland will be intense.

  “You don’t need to be a clairvoyant to imagine how Ireland will be presented by those competing with us for foreign direct investment and jobs in the international market if there is a No vote,” he said.

  He claimed that for the past few years some very influential parts of the international financial press have taken every opportunity “to do this country down”.

  “Be in no doubt: They will use a No vote on October 2nd to stir up speculation about this country being forced out – or being forced to the margins – of the European Union and use this to highlight the risks for international investment in Ireland,” he warned.

  Comments (6)

• Lisbon debate to be streamed from Irish Times website

  @ 3:05 pm | by Eoin Burke Kennedy

  Next Thursday The Last Word will broadcast a special Lisbon Treaty debate from The Irish Times building in Dublin.

  The debate, which will streamed live from our website, promises to be a lively affair with a formidable panel of Yes and No campaigners set to take part.

  The No team will comprise of Libertas leader Declan Ganley, Socialist Party MEP Joe Higgins and Patricia McKenna of the People’s Movement.

  They will be opposed by Ryanair boss Michael O’Leary, Foreign Affairs minister Micheál Martin and independent MEP Marian Harkin

  Those who would like to join the audience on the day need to log-on to todayfm.com and register. Places are limited and attendees will be notified in advanced.

  Comments (4)

• Campaign groups yet to exploit the power of virals

  September 17, 2009 @ 12:45 pm | by Eoin Burke Kennedy

  It’s a wonder that so few Lisbon campaigners have sought to use a slick viral ad campaign to sell their message to the electorate.

  Notwithstanding Michael O’Leary’s five-minute rant on YouTube, most groups appear to see the poster arena as the main canvassing battleground.

  One imagines a well-executed viral campaign could have a significant impact on a modern audience, who have become fatigued with the same dreary, inane circuit of slogans and faces adorning their lampposts.

  A recent British study suggested virtual advertising – from Facebook messages to e-mails, texts and mobile applications – was fast becoming the most important medium for advertising, surpassing even television.

  A good example of a locally-based campaign viral is the latest offering from Marriage Equality, which gets its point across in a persuasive and clever way.

  The re-worked Budweiser Wassup 2008 viral was watched by over four million people in its first two weeks on YouTube last year and was considered to a have made significant contribution to the US election.

  The ad reassembled the characters of the 1999 hit viral at the end of the Bush administration and urged people to vote for political change.

  European Anti-Poverty Network (EAPN) Ireland has just released its own video on YouTube, entitled “The Lisbon Treaty’s Social Side”, which aims to give a neutral overview of how Lisbon impacts on social issues and the direction of the European Union.

  While not a viral ad, the video, produced by Dun Laoghaire Institute of Art, Design and Technology graduate Dan Flynn, illustrates just how effective and engaging the medium can be when utilised to highlight the issues.

  EAPN director Anna Visser said the agency is concerned that Lisbon campaign is once again being over-shadowed by political gamesmanship and personality contests.

  She said: “The video briefly and clearly explores important issues like the Charter of Fundamental Rights, the Citizens Initiative and the Social Clause”.

  “We are a non-partisan organisation and we’re not asking to people to vote for or against, we’re simply asking people to go to the polls armed with the facts,” Visser said.

  

  Comments (7)

• Yes siders still getting most print media coverage

  September 16, 2009 @ 1:41 pm | by Eoin Burke Kennedy

  Pro-treaty groups and campaigners are still commanding the lion’s share of Lisbon coverage in the print media, according to the latest TNS MediaMarket survey.

  With just over two weeks to the referendum, the survey found Yes groups garnered 44 per cent of column inches in the national and Sunday press media over the last week, a drop of 7 per cent on the previous week.

  The survey indicates No groups commanded 24 per cent of the coverage, the same percentage as the previous week.

  Researchers said the treaty appeared to be playing “a bit-part” in larger issues faced by the political parties promoting a Yes vote, behind National Asset Management Agency (Nama) and speculation on a general election.

  While Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael and Labour all dominated the Yes campaigners’ league, much of the references toward the treaty were “passing mentions”, the survey said.

  This is the most likely explanation for the 7 per cent drop in Yes coverage to neutral, rather than ground being gained by the No campaign, it said.

  However, the survey indicated the No side gained a strong boost at the end of the week with the re-emergence of Libertas leader Declan Ganley.

  The analysis suggested the print media coverage strongly reflected a concern by the Yes side about the damage a No vote could do to economic recovery.

  Another debating point this week related to concerns over the next Irish Commissioner.

  Tax and the treaty guarantees, secured by the Government, remained the subjects of several articles in the national and Sunday press, the survey said.

  Comments (3)

• O’Leary labels No groups ‘unemployable headbangers’

  September 15, 2009 @ 11:21 am | by Eoin Burke Kennedy

  

  Ryanair boss Michael O’Leary has set out just why he thinks Ireland should vote Yes to Lisbon in an expletive-laden rant on YouTube.

  In his five-minute tirade, O’Leary describes those on the No side as “unemployable f****ing headbangers”, and claims if it weren’t for the European Union the country would be destroyed by an “incompetent public sector”, “inept politicians” and trade union bosses who were “milking the system” through social partnership.

  Never one to mix his words, O’Leary said “our incompetent political elite” had shattered the country’s competitiveness and created “an explosion of expensive, useless, self-sustaining quangos”.

  He said his foray into political campaigning was a one-off, and he intended to retire from the political scene immediately the referendum campaign.

  “Will I be running at some future date for the presidency? No! sadly, I am the wrong gender, and I couldn’t hack speaking in the normal platitudinous shite that you have to talk in to get elected,” he said.

  Mysteriously, he also felt called upon to dispel “the myth” that his airline’s cabin crew were “large Russian shot putters or Latvians that can’t speak any English”, saying most cabin crew were Irish or English girls.

  Comments (32)

• Ganley derides pro-Lisbon stance of Intel and Microsoft

  September 14, 2009 @ 3:35 pm | by Eoin Burke Kennedy

  Libertas leader Declan Ganley has criticised the public shows of support for the Lisbon Treaty by technology giants Intel and Microsoft, claiming they were motivated solely to keep the European Commission “sweet” and avoid further fines for anti-competitive practices.

  Speaking on the RTE’s Today with Pat Kenny show, Ganley claimed the Commission has become so powerful that businesses like Intel and Microsoft were now behaving like lowly “courtiers…looking for favours and begging for the scraps” so as not to be hit with another billion euro fine.

  Intel was stung with a record €1.06 billion anti-trust fine earlier this year by the EU executive, more than double the €497 million fine levied against Microsoft in 2004.

  In Intel’s case, Ganley said the company remained in “mitigation and litigation” with the Commission in an attempt to reduce its fine.

  “These companies need to build goodwill because they have figured out that they have to keep the Commission sweet…because the Commission has so much power and will be given so much greater power under this Treaty without ever having to face an electorate.”

  He said the companies should not be interfering in the constitutional processes of the country by entering the debate on Lisbon, and claimed they were dispensing poor economic advice.

  “I understand they need to curry favour with the Commission but their advice is very bad for the Irish economy.

  It is not in our interest to give away exclusive competence in commercial, industrial, foreign direct investment policy and to enshrine European law as supreme,” he said.

  Last week the managing director of Microsoft Ireland, Paul Rellis, warned Ireland would almost certainly lose investment to other EU countries if the Lisbon Treaty is not ratified.

  In August, Intel Ireland launched a pro-Lisbon campaign with general manager Jim O’Hara claiming a Yes vote would be “hugely important” for the future of foreign investment in Ireland.

  Comments (16)

• Yes groups deny responsibility for anti-Cóir posters

  September 13, 2009 @ 7:29 pm | by Eoin Burke Kennedy

  Nobody appears to know just who is behind a series of anti-Cóir posters which were erected along several of capital’s busiest thoroughfares last week.

  The posters displayed a monkey holding a placard emblazoned with the words “No to Nuts”, and contained the message “Are Cóir driving you nuts, Vote Yes to Lisbon.

  Several prominent Yes groups and campaigners contacted by The Irish Times denied responsibility and pleaded to be clueless as to who was behind the posters.

  Cóir’s Richard Greene claimed the posters, which have been taken down by the Dublin City Council, represented “a huge own goal for the Yes side”, as they were deeply offensive to people who suffered from psychiatric illness.

  Cóir is planning to blitz the capital and several other cities in the coming days with another controversial poster campaign warning of dire consequences if the Treaty is passed.

  The group has produced a series of four pink, heart-shaped posters, containing provocative slogans such as “the EU loves low wages” and “Kiss your freedom goodbye”.

  One of the posters contains the message “We love our Constitution, Vote No” while another claims “Politicians love the gravy train”.

  A fifth poster shows a picture of a giraffe with the message “Another vote? They’ve got some neck”.

  Greene told LisbonWatch: “We’ve got a huge response to our first series of posters and it is now accepted by all sides that we’re winning the poster campaign”.

  Comments (9)

• Does Ganley sense a No vote or was his return planned all along?

  September 12, 2009 @ 8:38 pm | by Eoin Burke Kennedy

  The return of Brussels nemesis Ganley may not be enough a stop a Yes vote if the latest Red C poll, published in the Sunday Business Post, proves an accurate barometer of public opinion.

  With just under three weeks to the referendum, the poll puts support for the Lisbon Treaty at 52 per cent, with the No side on 25 per cent and the undecided at 23 per cent.

  The figures contrast with the last Irish Times / TNS mrbi poll which suggested support for the Treaty had slumped 8 points to 46 per cent since May and that the No vote had risen 1 per cent to 29 per cent, with the Don’t Knows on 25 per cent.

  There’s little doubt Ganley’s return to the fray adds a new dynamic to the campaign.  But was his return planned all along or does he sense a No vote is there for the taking? There’s been a GanleyComeBack persona on Twitter since his European election defeat in June. One LisbonWatch reader suspects astroturfing.

  Nevertheless, Patricia McKenna suggests his return will allay concerns that those on the No side are anti-business. But Paddy Power remains unconvinced, shortening their odds on a Yes vote from 1/10 to 1/12.

  All the speculation this week surrounding Ganley almost overshadowed the entrance of Jim Corr, who launched his own crusade for a No vote, warning that Lisbon would lead to a European superstate run by Tony Blair (see below).

  

  Comments (9)

• Cóir website generating more traffic than pro-Lisbon sites

  September 11, 2009 @ 6:04 pm | by Eoin Burke Kennedy

  No campaigners may not be commanding as many column inches  in the print media as pro-Lisbon groups but when it comes to generating internet traffic they’re more than a match.

  According to web traffic compilers Alexa and Statbrain, Coir’s website is receiving four times as many visitors as the pro-Lisbon group Ireland for Europe’s website or the Government’s own Lisbon campaign site.

  Statbrain estimates the average number of visits per day to www.coircampaign.org is now 1,327 while the equivalent for www.irelandforeurope.ie is only 327.

  Brian Hickey of Cóir claimed the figures showed that people wanted to know more about this Treaty, but they don’t trust the Government to tell them the full facts.

  “Our nationwide canvass is alerting people to the facts about the Treaty, and also bringing more traffic to the site,” he said.

  Comments (18)

• Is Ganley to return?

  @ 11:12 am | by Eoin Burke Kennedy

  Several blogs and a number of Twitter users are suggesting Libertas leader Declan Ganley is about make a dramatic and unexpected return to the campaign trail for Lisbon II.

  In an interview with the Wall Street Journal published yesterday, Ganley said it was “profoundly undemocratic” to hold a second vote on the treaty.

  The WSJ described him as the man the Brussels establishment blamed most for the last Lisbon No vote.

  The paper said:”He was one of the driving forces behind the No campaign the last time around, and he’s back to do it again”.

  Ganley was contacted by the Irish Times today but declined to confirm the reports, saying he was in a meeting and would be available to talk on Monday.

  But irishelection.ie says: “Declan Ganley is back 100 per cent” and the Libertas launch will happen between now and Monday.

  The possible re-emergence of Mr Ganley in the Lisbon debate comes after the latest Irish Times /TNS mrbi poll showed a dramatic drop in support for the Treaty.

  The Tuam-based businessman is described by the Wall Street Journal as the man the Brussels establishment blamed most for the last Lisbon No vote. “He was one of the driving forces behind the No campaign the last time around, and he’s back to do it again,” it said.

  In the interview, Mr Ganley said: “The Irish people had a vote on the Lisbon Treaty. They voted no. A higher percentage of the electorate voted no than voted for Barack Obama in the United States of America. No one’s suggesting he should run for re-election next month”.

  He also claimed Ireland was “almost literally being held hostage, with a gun pointed to our head, and being told, if you don’t sign this thing, unspecified bad things will happen. But what they’re asking us to do is to sell out the rest of the people of Europe.”

  When asked about Mr Ganley’s possible return to the Lisbon campaign trail today, Minister for Finance Brian Lenihan said: “Mr Ganley is free to campaign. I have no information about his intentions, that’s a matter for himself.”

  Following his defeat in the North West constituency in the June European Parliament elections, Mr Ganley said he would not be involved in a campaign against a second Lisbon Treaty referendum. “I will not be involved in the second Lisbon campaign, I’ve said that upfront,” he said.

  Comments (12)

• Farage elicits colourful invective from Fianna Fáil ministers

  September 10, 2009 @ 2:13 pm | by Eoin Burke Kennedy

  One of the surprise entrants on the No side this time round has been the UK Independence Party leader Nigel Farage.

  He appears to be eliciting some unusually colourful invective from the Yes side, not least from Fianna Fáil ministers.

  At a Lisbon debate on Monday night in Dublin, European Affairs minister Dick Roche labelled him “a narrow, bigoted, jingoist, peddling an intolerant Little Englander’s view of the world”.

  Farage hit back (see video below), saying Roche’s comments were motivated by fear and malice. He appears to be inhabiting the space left by Declan Ganley.
  

  Yesterday on RTE’s Today with Pat Kenny show, Minister for Foreign Affairs Micheál Martin said Farage represented a “fundamental agenda” that didn’t believe in climate change and wished to scrap the Belfast Agreement.

  Farage said: “Do not trust your politicians, they are careerists, they are the only ones that will benefit from this treaty, they’re the ones that will be secure in their careers, and you will lose your independence and your freedom. It’s not worth it, say No and let’s have a big debate across Europe about where we want to go.”

  Comments (0)

• Yes campaign commands lion’s share of print media coverage

  @ 9:52 am | by Eoin Burke Kennedy

  TNS MediaMarket research on the media’s coverage of the Lisbon Treaty debate has found that Yes campaigners commanded 51 per cent of the national and Sunday press coverage on the topic during the first week of the campaign from August 31st to September 6th, compared to 24 per cent for the No campaigners.

  The analysis suggested the print media coverage strongly reflected a concern by the Yes side that voters would use the referendum as a protest vote against the Government.

  It found Taoiseach Brian Cowen drove much of the coverage, at least in terms of column inches, which allowed Fianna Fáil to be ranked as the most prominent Yes campaign group.

  Fine Gael and Labour, who also focused on trying to appeal to voters not to use their vote to bash the Government, were second and third respectively in the Yes campaigners league.

  The research found the top three non-political Yes contributors were “Ireland for Europe”, “We Belong” and Ryanair’s chief executive Michael O’Leary. It said: “Much of the focus of the Yes campaign remains on damning the No debate, with Michéal Martin and Dick Roche condemning the tactics of Cóir.”

  The research said Cóir managed to grab significant press coverage through its controversial poster campaign, particularly on its minimum wage posters, which were the subject of 24 articles last week.

  Sinn Féin and Patricia McKenna’s People’s Movement returned second and third place in the No campaigners league, though the analysis said Sinn Fein’s coverage was “somewhat off-subject”, concentrating more on its TNS MRBI poll results.

  Yes Campaigns (number of articles in brackets)

  1. Fianna Fáil (133)
  2. Fine Gael (62)
  3. Labour (51)
  4. Green Party (50)
  5. Ireland for Europe / We Belong / Ryanair (17 each)

  No Campaigns (number of articles in brackets)

  1. Cóir (45)
  2. Sinn Féin (26)
  3. People’s Movement (21)
  4. Youth Defence (16)
  5. Socialist Party (14)

  Comments (0)

• Commission intervenes on Cóir’s wage claim

  September 3, 2009 @ 4:11 pm | by Eoin Burke Kennedy

  Referendum Commission chairman Justice Frank Clarke has said the Lisbon Treaty has no implications for the minimum wage, contrary to assertions by anti-Lisbon group Cóir.

  The group has been running a controversial poster campaign claiming, among other things, that the minimum pay rate may drop as low as €1.84 if the Treaty is passed.

  “As far as the claim that Lisbon has anything to do with the minimum wage is concerned, there is a simple answer to that. It hasn’t,” Justice Clarke said.

  He said the Commission did not intend to intervene in the debate but would correct errors of fact.

  However, the move suggests he’s likely to be more interventionist than his predecessors.

  Cóir has been to be forefront of the No campaign so far, eliciting a fiery attack last week from Fianna Fáil’s Lisbon chief Micháel Martin who accused the group of cynically distorting the debate .

  See irishelection.com’s Qik video of Cóir’s latest press briefing on Lisbon

  Comments (3)

• It’s the economy, stupid

  @ 12:41 pm | by Eoin Burke Kennedy

  Predicting the mind of the electorate is tricky at the best of times, and some might say downright foolhardy in the teeth of a recession.

  Even the bookies, who have a better record than most pollsters in calling tight political races, predicted a comfortable victory for the Yes side last time round.

  Several high street chains offered punters 3/1 against a No result right up until polls closed.

  Despite getting it so wrong last time, the bookies are again predicting a strong victory for the Yes side.

  The theory, albeit unoriginal, is that since the last referendum, the country’s financial fortunes have nosedived, and the electorate are unlikely to rock the Brussels boat again.

  The old Clinton maxim – it’s the economy, stupid – appears to be the guiding principle.

  Paddy Power is offering a meagre 1/10 on the electorate passing the referendum this time and 5/1 against. Ladbrokes is less confident of a Yes vote, offering punters 1/5 on the outcome and 3/1 against.

  Nevertheless, a Paddy Power spokesman confirmed there had been a sudden shift in the betting in favour of the No side late last month.

  The bookmaker received three “sizeable bets” on a No outcome on Friday August 21st, which caused it to cut the odds on a No outcome temporarily from 5/1 to 5/2.

  However, he said the trend this time is “significantly more” in favour of a Yes vote, with around 85 per cent of bets backing the referendum to be passed. This compared to about 60 per cent of bets in favour of a Yes vote last time, he said.

  Comments (0)

• Welcome to LisbonWatch

  September 2, 2009 @ 3:17 pm | by Eoin Burke Kennedy

  The LisbonWatch blog is intended as a light-hearted look at the campaign trail. It will avail of images and video where possible. Any interesting submissions are invited.

  lisbonwatch@irishtimes.com

  Comments (0)