Correspondent

The Greens and power…..

Mark Hennessy — Tue, 05 Jun 2007 11:00:15 +0000

Talks between the Greens and Fianna Fail are proceeding along amiably enough – but the real crunch issues have, as always, been left to the last for resolution: that is, of course, if they can be resolved.

The idea of an FF/Green/PD alliance, once thought fantastical, is now a possibility, though it really does have to be wondered why the Greens would sign up for such a package, given everything they have said about the PDs in the past.

FF and the Greens alone can supply 84 seats, and with the selection of a Labour TD for Ceann Comhairle, a Dail majority would be secure for five years, barring deaths, ill-health and policy disagreements.

Mary Harney’s importance, though, lies far beyond the PDs’ two TDs. Now that she is back from a well-earned weekend break, she must decide whether she wants to do business with Bertie Ahern. Everyone assumes that she will.

However, she has had concerns in the past about Ahern’s explanation of his finances, and she is long enough on the political road to know that further earthquakes are inevitable over coming weeks and months.

The question is whether it would be worthwhile to put up with those ‘quakes in return for ministerial office, and vitally-needed Senate seats to help rebuild the party’s shattered organisation.

If she was to say ‘Yes’, then the Greens and others could conclude that the issue of Ahern’s finances is something that could be managed, or that it is something that will not cause difficulties, or, at least, not the kind of difficulties that some have imagined.

However, it would be a very hard sell to get such a deal past a Green conference – far harder than many of those without experience of the Greens’ overly-democratic internal systems seem to realise.

The involvement of the PDs would fundamentally alter the dynamic of such a government and allow FF to play one of the junior partners off against the other, and FF are expert in such activity.

The situation would get even worse for the Greens in such an alliance if Bertie Ahern manages to add Jackie Healy-Rae, Michael Lowry and other Independents into some loose form of background alliance.

In such an environment, the Greens would find life distinctly tricky. If they stayed in power after a major embarrassment they would look foolish, but if they left the government would not fall, leaving them powerless and humiliated on the Opposition benches.

Either way, Bertie Ahern stays in office.

Back in 2004, the Greens gathered in an old schoolhouse outside Clonakilty to debate whether Eamon Ryan should run for the Park, and decided against it. It was, I have always believed, the biggest single mistake made by the Greens in recent years.

Though the meeting was united at the end of it, the debate was helped by the fact that Ryan had suffered a last-minute dose of wobbles about the idea of running against Mary McAleese. But there were also internal tensions.

Neither Trevor Sargent, nor John Gormley were wild about the idea of Ryan becoming the public face of the Greens. Regardless of their “nice guy” image, the Greens suffer from the same rivalries and tensions as other parties.

Today, the situation is even more complicated. Most of the Green TDs are in favour of, or persuadable about the idea of coalition, if a policy agenda can be hammered out that fulfils some of their objectives.

However, what will be the attitude of some of them when they fully comprehend that coalition will mean office for Sargent (assuming that he stays at the helm), and Gormley, while the others may have to pick over an Oireachtas committee chair?

Meanwhile, Ahern’s desire to build a “technicolour” coalition, involving Healy-Rae, Lowry, and Beverley Flynn, has the added benefit that it would neutralise Finian McGrath and Tony Gregory and, most importantly, Sinn Fein.

In the last Dail, these Independents and Sinn Fein were part of a “technical group”, which gave them access to priority Dail questions to the Taoiseach, and the freedom to present both a Bill to the House and Private Members’ Business.

Bertie Ahern could not lose.

Labour’s lack of hope for power….

Mark Hennessy — Wed, 30 May 2007 22:14:07 +0000

Labour TDs gathered in Leinster House today did not look like a bunch of people who have any hope of being in power in a few weeks time, either with Fianna Fail, or Fine Gael and a conglomeration of other parties.
While Fine Gael still goes around busily talking to Independents, Greens and any one else that they can find, Labour leader, Pat Rabbitte is adopting a curiously stand-offish role, saying only that the “prime movers in government formation” are others.
“We are committed to supporting Enda Kenny’s candidacy on the 14th,” he said, though the coalition train will have moved on by then if Fianna Fail has anything to do with it, one must reasonably assume.
Though, privately, some Labour people are despondent about Rabbitte’s strategy, the old-fashioned willingness of Labour to have endless internal ructions, and often to enjoy them, has not been much evident under Rabbitte’s centrally-controlled leadership.
Back in 1997, Labour heads sagged after they suffered a massacre, and, again, in 2002, but this time the mood is clearly even blacker since so many of the more experienced, older people see the last chance of political power slip from their grasp.
The party’s National Executive Committee, once a hotbed of division, is now but a muted body, unless it shows signs of unexpected life tomorrow afternoon when they meet in Dublin to review the election result.
Nevertheless, the NEC will have to meet in the face of at least one public declaration by a former Labour backroom figure. But, for now, it is impossible to say if others will join in public opposition to Rabbitte.
However, it cannot still be guaranteed that Fianna Fail will deal with Independents and the Progressive Democrats. The latter clearly needs to be in power, if they are to have much of a chance of rebuilding.
In such a situation, Mary Harney would get Health, Noel Grealish might get the chairmanship of a Dail committee, while a few Taoiseach’s Seanad nominations might give people such as Tom Parlon a chance at political rebirth.
Grealish would probably want more than a committee chair, worth about €20,000 a year, though the PDs would become a rather expensive package if FF had to offer a Minister of State’s position.
However, the PDs’ prize is but the start. The Independents also would want some “pork barrel”. Finian McGrath’s enthusiasm is currently facing few restraints, though Tony Gregory is playing a quieter game, unless he sees the colour of FF’s true intentions.
Beverley Flynn is also prepared to dance, though she has also said that she would not have a problem voting for a Mayo Taoiseach. Jackie Healy-Rae will require satisfaction, also, while Michael Lowry would probably be satisfied with constituency deals.
Today, Lowry dealt a blow to Kenny’s slim hopes of power by making it clear that he believed that Fianna Fail is the only one of the major parties that has a reasonable prospect of forming an administration.
The post of Ceann Comhairle could be filled by a Labour TD, since there will be little opposition amongst them to one of their senior people getting a lap of honour if they are not to be in power themselves.
Step forward, perhaps, Waterford’s Brian O’Shea, though speculation may focus on Ruairi Quinn from Dublin South East. A former minister, and possessed of considerable gravitas, Quinn would fit in quickly into the Ceann’s robe, even if Rory O’Hanlon would be livid.
Putting all of that together, however, may not be easy.
The Mahon Tribunal’s latest revelations have not created waves within the PDs, who believe that they got involved in this matter twice before and received nothing but pains for their efforts, however clumsy they were.
However, little serious business will get done until next week. Fianna Fail is unlikely to want to tie down a deal with anyone until closer to the June 14th date, for fear that the whole package could unravel.
So far, the contacts with Independents have been spearheaded by the Taoiseach’s programme manager, Gerry Hickey, who has been down this track before during Mr Ahern’s previous liasion with them in 1997.
For now, the Greens cannot be ruled out. Fianna Fail has noted the party’s disciplined silence since the weekend, when some of its TDs appeared a bit too frequently for their own good to highlight their desire to occupy the corridors of power.
Ciaran Cuffe’s unfortunate blog – when he compared a deal with FF to a deal with the devil – was written on May 27th, even though it only appeared into the wider public arena with a showing in The Irish Independent on Wednesday morning.
From the point of view of dealing with FF, it would have been much worse for the Greens if Cuffe had written it on a date later than May 27th. FF may simply now sit back and watch to see if the Greens can maintain a fixed front for a few days.

The opening coalition moves…

Mark Hennessy — Wed, 30 May 2007 13:50:37 +0000

Newly-elected TDs, and those who were up to so recently TDs, have begun to gather in numbers in Leinster House for a series of meetings to debate the fall-out from the election.
The PDs two TDs, and ex-TDs including Michael McDowell, are meeting before all of their general election candidates, and the party’s executive meet later today, though so far they have said little.
The Labour Parliamentary Party is also meeting, but it continues to give little succour to Fine Gael’s Enda Kenny’s hopes of forming an administration. Pat Rabbitte has talked in the last few minutes about “a clean slate” existing after June 14th.
Labour’s Liz McManus is the latest to say that a deal with FF is not on, but Labour’s striking lack of confidence in Kenny’s ability to win the numbers does nothing to bolster his case, even if Mr Rabbitte says that Kenny is still in the game.
The Labour leader’s lack of faith in FG and Labour securing the numbers is illustrated by the fact that he has not made any approaches to the Independents to try and quarantine them from Fianna Fail, if nothing else.
So what is FG up to? Many senior figures genuinely believe that they could manage to get to 83, 84 votes, and they are equally confident that they can find someone in FF to become Ceann Comhairle.
The danger is that if they keep this ball in the air for too long without sight of potential allies putting their hands in agreement that Kenny could look a little foolish, but the situation is so changeable at the moment that only a fool would make final predictions.
If the number crunching does not work, then FG could argue that nobody could subsequently accuse it of failing to warn possible coalition allies of FF of the significance of the Mahon Tribunal’s latest revelations about Taoiseach Bertie Ahern’s finances, and that anybody who did go into government would be treated harshly by the public in the next general election. Maybe, maybe not…..
Some so-far unidentified individual in Fianna Fail has been in touch with Independent Finian McGrath this morning, though he is being, perhaps, a tad too enthusiastic for his own negotiating hand.
However, much of what is happening is little more than shadow-boxing. It makes little sense for FF to hammer out a final deal much before the June 14th deadline, if only because of the danger that it could unravel if left on the shelf too long.

The game changeth once more, perhaps…..Update

Mark Hennessy — Mon, 28 May 2007 15:16:00 +0000

The Mahon Tribunal’s declaration today that it can find no record of a £30,000 sterling lodgement into Mr Ahern’s accounts from Manchester businessman, Michael Wall has placed a new ingredient into the coalition mix.
Nevertheless, Fine Gael’s clear hopes that the events in Dublin Castle give it new grounds for hope may be misplaced, given the sober tone adopted on Questions and Answers by Progressive Democrat ex-TD, Fiona O’Malley and Independent TD, Finian McGrath.
Fianna Fail’s Brian Lenihan was adamant that the latest chapter will have “no impact”, and, privately, Fianna Fail quarters believe that Fine Gael’s decision to issue a statement in Fergus O’Dowd’s name will backfire on Enda Kenny.
Fine Gael had a number of people in Dublin Castle to observe the Tribunal’s opening statement, though long-term observers of its work are under no doubt about the significance of its declaration.
Mr Ahern’s legal counsel’s decision to accuse the Tribunal of being involved in a malicious conspiracy against the Taoiseach is a high-wire act, which could have serious consequences for all concerned.
However, the legal counsel did not challenge the tribunal’s assertion about the sterling lodgement – a fact that was the source of much comment from those present in the Castle this afternoon.
A fortnight ago Mr Ahern said Wall’s money was lodged into his account. Now the tribunal says that it can find records to show that only £1,900 sterling was lodged. This is a major discrepancy, which, if proved, raises serious questions about everything else that Mr Ahern has said. However, it must be pointed out that Des O’Neill SC, for the tribunal, said that no one should draw any conclusions from the figures and that there might be other explanations for them.
In addition, Mr Ahern’s finances will not stay on the tribunal’s agenda beyond tomorrow, when Tom Gilmartin comes before it to make his allegations about the tax designation issues surrounding Blanchardstown shopping centre.
The Progressive Democrats have been burnt badly by involvement with the tribunals and will be no in mood for a reprise, particularly since they must get back into government if they are to have any chance of rebuilding their organisation.
However, senior Fine Gael figures have for days been saying that they are not out of the running to form a new government. Maybe they are right, maybe not, we shall see. The coming days will tell a lot.
But it is just as likely that Mr Ahern’s finances will slip below the radar until they are finally teased out by the tribunal in October, or so. By then, a new government will have long since been formed. Decisions on some issues can be delayed……

Independents…….

Mark Hennessy — Mon, 28 May 2007 11:18:22 +0000

The mating ritual has begun, so disbelieve almost everything that you hear about Fianna Fail’s coalition options. Tony Gregory and Finian McGrath this morning cleverly raised the prospect that FF is just playing with them, while they talk to Labour on the side.
It could be true. Indeed, it is certain that people in both parties are talking to each other informally, though, for now, the PD and Independents option is the first to be considered by Bertie Ahern.
But Gregory and McGrath are right to create a few distractions of their own. Ahern would find it difficult to look after Gregory, since he cannot offer “a Gregory deal” to a TD in his own constituency, though there is always the Ceann Comhairle job.
There is some talk that Gregory could be brought into government and given a Minister of State job with responsible for anti-drugs measures, though this would raise the price for every Independent even if it would cement his place his government.
For now, it is more likely that FF is thinking about chairmanships of committees, along with constituency issues for the five Independents: Gregory, McGrath, Beverley Flynn, Michael Lowry and Jackie Healy Rae.
But Ahern is playing a game of parallel strategies. Talking about the PDs and Independents lowers the price of the Greens, and vice versa, while mention of both is irritating to those in Labour who might want a change of game plan by Rabbitte.
So far, there is little public evidence of a revolt within Labour, though that could change before Thursday’s meeting of the party’s National Executive Committee in a party that is not unused to disagreements over electoral strategy.
Kildare TD, Jack Wall – a respected senior figure – has, however, made it clear that those who did not like the strategy could leave, and comments such as that from one such as him are significant.
Real talks between FF and its coalition option may not take place until early next week, though senior government people this morning were speculating that it could happen before the weekend – with Cowen very obviously in command of them.
Ahern’s RTE Six One News interview on Saturday night is still causing ripples. Effectively, Ahern made it clear that FF is now led by both himself and Cowen. The message is clear to any in FF keen on a change, festina lente….Hasten slowly.

Coalition options…..Silence needed from the Greens. Update

Mark Hennessy — Sun, 27 May 2007 11:08:28 +0000

Somebody would really need to tell the Greens to be quiet for the next 48 hours until they get a better handle on how serious Fianna Fail is about trying to do a deal with the Progressive Democrats and the Independents.
For now, Taoiseach Bertie Ahern is making gentle cooing noises in the latter’s direction, but every spoken word by most parties in the current drama should be taken with extreme caution until the smoke clears.
The PDs could be easily brought onboard, though Mary Harney would want to be in Health, while Finian McGrath, Tony Gregory, Jackie Healy-Rae could all be negotiated with. But could a five year government be run?
Beverley Flynn, despite her legal cost difficulties with RTE, will also be in play, while ex-Fine Gael TD, Michael Lowry would be attracted both by the prospect of promises for Tipperary North and a five-year term in the Dail.
Someone in Labour could be found to act as Ceann Comhairle, since it is likely that any Fine Gael TD taking such a job would be forever regarded as a traitor by his own, though Tony Gregory might not be averse to the role.
However, relations between the Taoiseach and Mr Gregory are not good given conflicts over the years in Dublin Central and it would make it harder for Fianna Fail to hold two seats there next time out, unless the constituency is expanded in the next boundary review.
Though such a government would just have the numbers, it could be more solid than many might think, since nobody involved wants to run again to the country. But promises of loyalty now matter little when trouble is brewing 18 months from now.
But, it would be difficult to imagine many situations when everyone on the Opposition benches would unite against it. Even if they did, a Dail defeat would not necessarily mean the end of the Government.
But there are problems. Jackie Healy Rae is 76, Rory O’Hanlon is 74. Others are also over the pension age. And five years is a very long time in what is a stressful place to be at the best of times.
The Greens, therefore, are not out of the running, unless they put themselves out of the equation because of policy issues. Bertie Ahern has shown much interest in them privately over the last 18 months. A number of ministers are quietly in favour of such a deal.
But the Greens are talking too much. The mentioning of corporate donation and cleaning up of politics, et cetera is a like a red rag to a resurgent Fianna Fail bull. Now is the time for a little discretion, and only cautious expressions of interest about joining government.
Eamon Ryan was displaying far too much enthusiasm in weekend television interviews, though it must be said that Trevor Sargent struck a far more measured tone during his RTE’s “This Week” programme this afternoon.
Fianna Fail is now cock of the walk, and they have a right to crow. They will not be in a mood to take lectures, particularly from people who have annoyed – more at grassroots level than anywhere else – deeply over the years.
In other words, the Greens need to meet, decide on their strategy and start to take some serious, sober advice from those who have been around this track before from the inside, or with deep knowledge of what happened during past coalition talks.
It is interesting to note that by 5pm this evening the Greens announced that its Parliamentary Party had held initial discussions and would take soundings within the party on how to proceed in coming days.
Some days for reflection may well be useful. Many appear to be forgetting that the Mahon Tribunal will impinge on the political world over the few weeks in ways that are impossible to predict. Decisions do not have to be made until June 14th.
But the Greens do bring much to the party, if a deal could be struck. Fianna Fail, PDs and Independents is an old mixture in Irish politics, and it would look very tired five years on after 15 years in power.
With the Greens, the menu could be changed and freshened. Bertie Ahern, the man who helped to bring peace to Northern Ireland, could reinvent himself into being the man who went out to save the world…….

Bertie Ahern and Brian Cowen

Mark Hennessy — Sat, 26 May 2007 17:54:16 +0000

Bertie Ahern is clearly setting his sights on bringing the Progressive Democrats and Independents such as Tony Gregory and Finian McGrath on board to form a new government, following FF’s stunning victory.
He will also need Jackie Healy Rae, but that is hardly beyond Mr Ahern’s skills, if all of them are prepared to sign up to a five year deal. Beverley Flynn, newly re-installed as a TD for Mayo, should be agreeable, as well.
And the Progressive Democrats are hardly in much of a position to argue given the hammering that they have received. Indeed, it would give the party some chance to rebuild and put Mary Harney back in Health.
Now all he needs is a Ceann Comhairle from the Opposition benches. Since one assumes that Michael Lowry would not be considered for the job, one wonders if anyone on the Labour benches might be interested?
Brian Cowen’s ever-increasing influence will be interesting to watch, given the Taoiseach’s repeated references to him on RTE Six One News on Saturday night, http://www.rte.ie/news/6news/
Cowen, he said, was his friend and he would not do anything without consulting him. Since Mr Ahern rarely says much without advance thought, there is method to his actions. Why would such a comment be deemed necessary now?
The Offalyman is inherently loyal. Indeed, it is his defining trait, and he has no intention of doing anything to Mr Ahern – having made it clear before polling day that Mr Ahern would stay as FF leader for as long as he wanted.
Earlier, Cowen had delivered a broadside across the Greens’ bows by making it clear – in the face of Trevor Sargent’s demand for a clean-up of political donations and planning issues – that he did not need anyone to keep him straight.
However, the coalition negotiations have not yet even started. The coming days will see a lot of political theatre. Some of it will be real, some of it will be position-making. All of it is to be watched cautiously.
ends

Five more years for Bertie Ahern: Saturday AM

Mark Hennessy — Fri, 25 May 2007 23:24:33 +0000

If one was under any doubt about Bertie Ahern’s current hatred of the media it was clearly on view for those who stayed up late to watch his television interview with RTE’s Mark Little.
Some of his feelings about the Press are entirely understandable, given some of the things that were written and said about Fianna Fail during the campaign. A few of them are, undoubtedly, right.
But his charge that they were dishonestly made “in return for good pay and expenses” is unworthy of him. And it is deeply, bloody offensive to the vast numbers of reporters, who might make a million mistakes a day, but who do not go around telling lies.
Let us look back for a moment. What was wrong about the coverage. Firstly, not all media reported everything in the same way. Secondly, much of it centred around the reportage of opinion polls.
The early ones were negative for Fianna Fail. Few doubted their general accuracy. Fianna Fail argued, but there was nobody in FF at the start of the campaign telling anyone that they were on 41%.
Therefore, opinions change, as they often do during elections. However, the Taoiseach is making the mistake that because people report an favourable opinion poll – and not everybody reports all of them as enthusiasticallly – then they must be an enemy.
So what else did the media do wrong? It questioned Ahern and others about the financing of his house. Clearly, he is still furious about that, though why he believes it is not a matter worthy of investigation is strange.
If this happened anywhere else it would be the subject of questions. Anywhere else. But the fact that questions are being asked does not mean that the people asking the questions are party to a conspiracy.
Let us imagine for a moment that there was a conspiracy. Just for a moment. The conspirators conspire and the target rises eight points in the polls. Is somebody seriously that the conspirators would come back for a second bite? Would you?
No matter how many times Fianna Fail, or, indeed, other politicians are told, they continue to insist on believing that all journalists are partisan, and biased. Most other parties believe the same thing when they are under the cosh, so there’s no real difference, there.
Certainly, a few of them are. But the vast majority of us do not care enough about them to be biased. Politicians are characters upon the stage. They come, they go. The reporters remain, and report.
Though final figures are not yet in, Fianna Fail has undoubtedly produced one of the most extraordinary results in the long history of the party. They will get 78, according to predictions this morning.
It could have been even better, but it now leaves open the possibility of a pact with the Greens, though that will be harder to achieve now following the lamented loss of the Greens’ Cork South Central, Dan Boyle.
Since he is close to 80, Mr Ahern might try to repeat the 1997 minority administration, which depended on loyal support from four Independents, but that could be a bit more difficult to organise this time. Still, nothing is impossible.
Jackie Healy Rae will be back, as will Beverly Flynn, while Michael Lowry, though formerly of a Fine Gael-hue, could be brought into a loose tent.
The Greens’ National Conference would have to meet to approve the opening of the negotiations, let alone agreeing to a deal, and it would then have to come back for a final verdict.
A lot of Independent ex-Fianna Fail “gene pool” TDs have disappeared after one of the toughest days in Irish politics, particularly people like Paddy McHugh.
However, Taoiseach Bertie Ahern could look at people like Dublin North Central’s Finian McGrath if he survives battle with Fianna Fail’s Ivor Callely.
The departure of Progressive Democrats’ Michael McDowell from the world of politics will be regretted by many, if only for the endless stream of excitement that he brought to the business frequently.
Though hated by many in the world outside Leinster House, most inhabitants of said building – even if they disagreed with him fundamentally – actually rather like him, even if they would not want this fact known too publicly.
He is often guilty of rash judgement, but those close to him insisted tonight that his decision was final. Mary Harney, presumably, will now resume the role of leadership, one that she only relinquished six months ago. Noel Grealish will hardly want the job.
FF ministers have all produced fine performances. Dick Roche’s success in Wicklow and Martin Cullen’s showing in Waterford will do much to enhance the chances of both of them staying on in the Cabinet, regardless of their lack of popularity.

ends

Fianna Fail on a roll…..

Mark Hennessy — Fri, 25 May 2007 17:01:20 +0000

It has been a hectic, and extraordinary day, and it is far from finished. Fianna Fail could end up winning between 75 and 80 seats, far more than even their most partisan supporters would have imagined a few days ago.
Naturally, FF is now saying that it was all part of a cunning plan – that the media was ignorant and blind, that the Opposition failed to counter its attacks. One cannot blame them, given the pressure that they have been under over the last month.
However, the Lansdowne exit poll indicates that a quarter of all voters made their voting decision in the last week, primarily on the economy. So what triggered voters’ final calls? Some will put it down to the TV debate. However, Enda Kenny’s ratings rose after it, so I am personally far from sure that it was the seminal moment that many are now claiming it, but there is little doubt, either, that Bertie Ahern won it – whether it be by a yard, or a mile is open to individual preference. But there is little doubt that however voters came to their judgement, there is little doubt but that they preferred Ahern over Kenny, despite their undoubted strong feelings about the health service. One Labour strategist in recent days made the point that Labour could never have won if the public voted on the economy over services. This is exactly what did happen, and Fianna Fail tapped into this mood in the final week of the campaign.

The next step remains for coming days. Will Fianna Fail have enough seats to rule on their own, with the help of the Independents left, such as Finian McGrath if he manages to struggle home in Dublin North Central. There are not many FF “gene pool” TDs left, but business can always be done in politics. If not, they could look at the Greens. Bertie Ahern is unlikely to try and rule without a majority. If ever there was a leader who appreciates the value of stablility it is Bertie. This time, voters agreed with him,

The election tallies continue…..

Mark Hennessy — Fri, 25 May 2007 08:41:49 +0000

Every election holds surprises, and this one is proving to be no different, given indications from Dun Laoghaire that local campaigner, and anti-war activisit, Richard Boyd Barrett has polled extremely well. Up to 10%, if early tallies are right.
The early indications, meanwhile, from around the country for the Greens are not positive: Niall O Brolochain in Galway and Ciaran Cuffe in Dun Laoghaire are not polling as well as had been expected.
For the Progressive Democrats, Liz O’Donnell in Dublin has polled really badly, with just 6% according to early tallies, while Fiona O’Malley will have a battle on her hands in competitive Dun Laoghaire.
Fianna Fail is favourite to be in government, though its partner is far from decided. Fine Gael’s Frank Flannery had the sound of a defeated man on RTÉ ‘s Morning Ireland early today in the face of an exit poll that puts Fianna Fail on 41.6%.
Fianna Fail General Secretary Sean Dorgan was clearly trying not to count his chickens too early during his interview, though he was making one, or two cooing noises in the direction of the Greens.
The Lansdowne Market Research, produced after the numbers were crunched through the night, replicates almost exactly the final Irish Times/tns mrbi poll last Monday – one that was openly questioned by senior figures in most parties.
The Lansdowne poll, which interviewed 3,000 people as they left polling stations yesterday, shows that Labour’s support has fallen by 1% and the Progressive Democrats have dropped by 1.5%.
However, the Greens and Sinn Féin will be disappointed not to have made a major breakthrough, particularly given, in the Greens’ case, all the talk about global warming for months before the election.
Meanwhile, the process of counting of votes in the General Election has begun around the country with early tallies likely to indicate trends by mid-morning, and first results expected by mid-afternoon.
Fianna Fail and the Progressive Democrats, along with some FF-allied Independents, could form an administration along the lines of the 1997 coalition, depending on how the figures work out, and whether FF-inclined Independents survive.
But it will depend on transfers. In 2002, Fianna Fail won 81 seats with such a vote. It is unlikely to do the same again today, given that Fine Gael’s increased strength should keep it in the race for the last seat in five-seaters.
However, Fine Gael’s increased support, and Labour’s weakness, now poses the danger that some of Fine Gae’s undoubted gains will come at the expense of Labour – and, perhaps, from the Progressive Democrats, rather than from Fianna Fail.
If FF and the PDs cannot do the business, Fianna Fail and the Greens might, depending on where the peaks in the smaller party’s support shows itself throughout the State’s 43 constituencies.
A policy agreement between the two would be difficult, particularly on some thorny foreign policy issues, such as the right of the American military to use Shannon Airport, but stranger things have happened.
Fine Gael, Labour, particularly party leader, Pat Rabbitte, and the Greens will not concede yet that the Alliance for Change is defeated, but the odds on Enda Kenny becoming Taoiseach have now lengthened considerably.
The exit poll will come as a major blow for Labour, which was left stunned by the tns mrbi figures earlier in the week. “We always said it. If this election was fought on the economy, the Government would win. On services, we would win it,” an adviser said back then.
Fianna Fáil is on 41.6% – marginally above what it won in the last election
Fine Gael is on 26.3%, almost 4% ahead of its 2002 result
Potential coalition partner Labour has slipped 1% from the last time, down to 9.9%
The PDs look to be in serious trouble, down to 2.6%, a 1 1/2% drop from 2002
The Greens are up 1%, but will be disappointed to be at just 4.8%
There appears to be no big breakthrough for Sinn Féin, also up just under 1% to 7.3%
Independents and others are down nearly 3% at 7.5%
Of course, the first preference vote does not give a cast-iron indication of how many seats will be won.
Fianna Fáil got a huge seat bonus in the last election and the shape of the next Government may still be determined by transfers.