Coalition options…..Silence needed from the Greens. Update

Somebody would really need to tell the Greens to be quiet for the next 48 hours until they get a better handle on how serious Fianna Fail is about trying to do a deal with the Progressive Democrats and the Independents.
For now, Taoiseach Bertie Ahern is making gentle cooing noises in the latter’s direction, but every spoken word by most parties in the current drama should be taken with extreme caution until the smoke clears.
The PDs could be easily brought onboard, though Mary Harney would want to be in Health, while Finian McGrath, Tony Gregory, Jackie Healy-Rae could all be negotiated with. But could a five year government be run?
Beverley Flynn, despite her legal cost difficulties with RTE, will also be in play, while ex-Fine Gael TD, Michael Lowry would be attracted both by the prospect of promises for Tipperary North and a five-year term in the Dail.
Someone in Labour could be found to act as Ceann Comhairle, since it is likely that any Fine Gael TD taking such a job would be forever regarded as a traitor by his own, though Tony Gregory might not be averse to the role.
However, relations between the Taoiseach and Mr Gregory are not good given conflicts over the years in Dublin Central and it would make it harder for Fianna Fail to hold two seats there next time out, unless the constituency is expanded in the next boundary review.
Though such a government would just have the numbers, it could be more solid than many might think, since nobody involved wants to run again to the country. But promises of loyalty now matter little when trouble is brewing 18 months from now.
But, it would be difficult to imagine many situations when everyone on the Opposition benches would unite against it. Even if they did, a Dail defeat would not necessarily mean the end of the Government.
But there are problems. Jackie Healy Rae is 76, Rory O’Hanlon is 74. Others are also over the pension age. And five years is a very long time in what is a stressful place to be at the best of times.
The Greens, therefore, are not out of the running, unless they put themselves out of the equation because of policy issues. Bertie Ahern has shown much interest in them privately over the last 18 months. A number of ministers are quietly in favour of such a deal.
But the Greens are talking too much. The mentioning of corporate donation and cleaning up of politics, et cetera is a like a red rag to a resurgent Fianna Fail bull. Now is the time for a little discretion, and only cautious expressions of interest about joining government.
Eamon Ryan was displaying far too much enthusiasm in weekend television interviews, though it must be said that Trevor Sargent struck a far more measured tone during his RTE’s “This Week” programme this afternoon.
Fianna Fail is now cock of the walk, and they have a right to crow. They will not be in a mood to take lectures, particularly from people who have annoyed - more at grassroots level than anywhere else - deeply over the years.
In other words, the Greens need to meet, decide on their strategy and start to take some serious, sober advice from those who have been around this track before from the inside, or with deep knowledge of what happened during past coalition talks.
It is interesting to note that by 5pm this evening the Greens announced that its Parliamentary Party had held initial discussions and would take soundings within the party on how to proceed in coming days.
Some days for reflection may well be useful. Many appear to be forgetting that the Mahon Tribunal will impinge on the political world over the few weeks in ways that are impossible to predict. Decisions do not have to be made until June 14th.
But the Greens do bring much to the party, if a deal could be struck. Fianna Fail, PDs and Independents is an old mixture in Irish politics, and it would look very tired five years on after 15 years in power.
With the Greens, the menu could be changed and freshened. Bertie Ahern, the man who helped to bring peace to Northern Ireland, could reinvent himself into being the man who went out to save the world…….