The Greens and power…..
Talks between the Greens and Fianna Fail are proceeding along amiably enough - but the real crunch issues have, as always, been left to the last for resolution: that is, of course, if they can be resolved.
The idea of an FF/Green/PD alliance, once thought fantastical, is now a possibility, though it really does have to be wondered why the Greens would sign up for such a package, given everything they have said about the PDs in the past.
FF and the Greens alone can supply 84 seats, and with the selection of a Labour TD for Ceann Comhairle, a Dail majority would be secure for five years, barring deaths, ill-health and policy disagreements.
Mary Harney’s importance, though, lies far beyond the PDs’ two TDs. Now that she is back from a well-earned weekend break, she must decide whether she wants to do business with Bertie Ahern. Everyone assumes that she will.
However, she has had concerns in the past about Ahern’s explanation of his finances, and she is long enough on the political road to know that further earthquakes are inevitable over coming weeks and months.
The question is whether it would be worthwhile to put up with those ‘quakes in return for ministerial office, and vitally-needed Senate seats to help rebuild the party’s shattered organisation.
If she was to say ‘Yes’, then the Greens and others could conclude that the issue of Ahern’s finances is something that could be managed, or that it is something that will not cause difficulties, or, at least, not the kind of difficulties that some have imagined.
However, it would be a very hard sell to get such a deal past a Green conference - far harder than many of those without experience of the Greens’ overly-democratic internal systems seem to realise.
The involvement of the PDs would fundamentally alter the dynamic of such a government and allow FF to play one of the junior partners off against the other, and FF are expert in such activity.
The situation would get even worse for the Greens in such an alliance if Bertie Ahern manages to add Jackie Healy-Rae, Michael Lowry and other Independents into some loose form of background alliance.
In such an environment, the Greens would find life distinctly tricky. If they stayed in power after a major embarrassment they would look foolish, but if they left the government would not fall, leaving them powerless and humiliated on the Opposition benches.
Either way, Bertie Ahern stays in office.
Back in 2004, the Greens gathered in an old schoolhouse outside Clonakilty to debate whether Eamon Ryan should run for the Park, and decided against it. It was, I have always believed, the biggest single mistake made by the Greens in recent years.
Though the meeting was united at the end of it, the debate was helped by the fact that Ryan had suffered a last-minute dose of wobbles about the idea of running against Mary McAleese. But there were also internal tensions.
Neither Trevor Sargent, nor John Gormley were wild about the idea of Ryan becoming the public face of the Greens. Regardless of their “nice guy” image, the Greens suffer from the same rivalries and tensions as other parties.
Today, the situation is even more complicated. Most of the Green TDs are in favour of, or persuadable about the idea of coalition, if a policy agenda can be hammered out that fulfils some of their objectives.
However, what will be the attitude of some of them when they fully comprehend that coalition will mean office for Sargent (assuming that he stays at the helm), and Gormley, while the others may have to pick over an Oireachtas committee chair?
Meanwhile, Ahern’s desire to build a “technicolour” coalition, involving Healy-Rae, Lowry, and Beverley Flynn, has the added benefit that it would neutralise Finian McGrath and Tony Gregory and, most importantly, Sinn Fein.
In the last Dail, these Independents and Sinn Fein were part of a “technical group”, which gave them access to priority Dail questions to the Taoiseach, and the freedom to present both a Bill to the House and Private Members’ Business.
Bertie Ahern could not lose.
9:19 pm
Mary Harney could still scuttle the current deal being negotiated with the Greens. Imagine the scenario if Mary decides not to support a FF government because Bertie’s transactions do not add up. It is unlikely that the Green conference would give Gormley et al the necessary 2/3 vote to enter Government in such circumstances.
Comment by AeneasIt ain’t over ’til the fat lady sings.