Labour’s lack of hope for power….
Labour TDs gathered in Leinster House today did not look like a bunch of people who have any hope of being in power in a few weeks time, either with Fianna Fail, or Fine Gael and a conglomeration of other parties.
While Fine Gael still goes around busily talking to Independents, Greens and any one else that they can find, Labour leader, Pat Rabbitte is adopting a curiously stand-offish role, saying only that the “prime movers in government formation” are others.
“We are committed to supporting Enda Kenny’s candidacy on the 14th,” he said, though the coalition train will have moved on by then if Fianna Fail has anything to do with it, one must reasonably assume.
Though, privately, some Labour people are despondent about Rabbitte’s strategy, the old-fashioned willingness of Labour to have endless internal ructions, and often to enjoy them, has not been much evident under Rabbitte’s centrally-controlled leadership.
Back in 1997, Labour heads sagged after they suffered a massacre, and, again, in 2002, but this time the mood is clearly even blacker since so many of the more experienced, older people see the last chance of political power slip from their grasp.
The party’s National Executive Committee, once a hotbed of division, is now but a muted body, unless it shows signs of unexpected life tomorrow afternoon when they meet in Dublin to review the election result.
Nevertheless, the NEC will have to meet in the face of at least one public declaration by a former Labour backroom figure. But, for now, it is impossible to say if others will join in public opposition to Rabbitte.
However, it cannot still be guaranteed that Fianna Fail will deal with Independents and the Progressive Democrats. The latter clearly needs to be in power, if they are to have much of a chance of rebuilding.
In such a situation, Mary Harney would get Health, Noel Grealish might get the chairmanship of a Dail committee, while a few Taoiseach’s Seanad nominations might give people such as Tom Parlon a chance at political rebirth.
Grealish would probably want more than a committee chair, worth about €20,000 a year, though the PDs would become a rather expensive package if FF had to offer a Minister of State’s position.
However, the PDs’ prize is but the start. The Independents also would want some “pork barrel”. Finian McGrath’s enthusiasm is currently facing few restraints, though Tony Gregory is playing a quieter game, unless he sees the colour of FF’s true intentions.
Beverley Flynn is also prepared to dance, though she has also said that she would not have a problem voting for a Mayo Taoiseach. Jackie Healy-Rae will require satisfaction, also, while Michael Lowry would probably be satisfied with constituency deals.
Today, Lowry dealt a blow to Kenny’s slim hopes of power by making it clear that he believed that Fianna Fail is the only one of the major parties that has a reasonable prospect of forming an administration.
The post of Ceann Comhairle could be filled by a Labour TD, since there will be little opposition amongst them to one of their senior people getting a lap of honour if they are not to be in power themselves.
Step forward, perhaps, Waterford’s Brian O’Shea, though speculation may focus on Ruairi Quinn from Dublin South East. A former minister, and possessed of considerable gravitas, Quinn would fit in quickly into the Ceann’s robe, even if Rory O’Hanlon would be livid.
Putting all of that together, however, may not be easy.
The Mahon Tribunal’s latest revelations have not created waves within the PDs, who believe that they got involved in this matter twice before and received nothing but pains for their efforts, however clumsy they were.
However, little serious business will get done until next week. Fianna Fail is unlikely to want to tie down a deal with anyone until closer to the June 14th date, for fear that the whole package could unravel.
So far, the contacts with Independents have been spearheaded by the Taoiseach’s programme manager, Gerry Hickey, who has been down this track before during Mr Ahern’s previous liasion with them in 1997.
For now, the Greens cannot be ruled out. Fianna Fail has noted the party’s disciplined silence since the weekend, when some of its TDs appeared a bit too frequently for their own good to highlight their desire to occupy the corridors of power.
Ciaran Cuffe’s unfortunate blog - when he compared a deal with FF to a deal with the devil - was written on May 27th, even though it only appeared into the wider public arena with a showing in The Irish Independent on Wednesday morning.
From the point of view of dealing with FF, it would have been much worse for the Greens if Cuffe had written it on a date later than May 27th. FF may simply now sit back and watch to see if the Greens can maintain a fixed front for a few days.
