The election tallies continue…..
Every election holds surprises, and this one is proving to be no different, given indications from Dun Laoghaire that local campaigner, and anti-war activisit, Richard Boyd Barrett has polled extremely well. Up to 10%, if early tallies are right.
The early indications, meanwhile, from around the country for the Greens are not positive: Niall O Brolochain in Galway and Ciaran Cuffe in Dun Laoghaire are not polling as well as had been expected.
For the Progressive Democrats, Liz O’Donnell in Dublin has polled really badly, with just 6% according to early tallies, while Fiona O’Malley will have a battle on her hands in competitive Dun Laoghaire.
Fianna Fail is favourite to be in government, though its partner is far from decided. Fine Gael’s Frank Flannery had the sound of a defeated man on RTÉ ‘s Morning Ireland early today in the face of an exit poll that puts Fianna Fail on 41.6%.
Fianna Fail General Secretary Sean Dorgan was clearly trying not to count his chickens too early during his interview, though he was making one, or two cooing noises in the direction of the Greens.
The Lansdowne Market Research, produced after the numbers were crunched through the night, replicates almost exactly the final Irish Times/tns mrbi poll last Monday – one that was openly questioned by senior figures in most parties.
The Lansdowne poll, which interviewed 3,000 people as they left polling stations yesterday, shows that Labour’s support has fallen by 1% and the Progressive Democrats have dropped by 1.5%.
However, the Greens and Sinn Féin will be disappointed not to have made a major breakthrough, particularly given, in the Greens’ case, all the talk about global warming for months before the election.
Meanwhile, the process of counting of votes in the General Election has begun around the country with early tallies likely to indicate trends by mid-morning, and first results expected by mid-afternoon.
Fianna Fail and the Progressive Democrats, along with some FF-allied Independents, could form an administration along the lines of the 1997 coalition, depending on how the figures work out, and whether FF-inclined Independents survive.
But it will depend on transfers. In 2002, Fianna Fail won 81 seats with such a vote. It is unlikely to do the same again today, given that Fine Gael’s increased strength should keep it in the race for the last seat in five-seaters.
However, Fine Gael’s increased support, and Labour’s weakness, now poses the danger that some of Fine Gae’s undoubted gains will come at the expense of Labour - and, perhaps, from the Progressive Democrats, rather than from Fianna Fail.
If FF and the PDs cannot do the business, Fianna Fail and the Greens might, depending on where the peaks in the smaller party’s support shows itself throughout the State’s 43 constituencies.
A policy agreement between the two would be difficult, particularly on some thorny foreign policy issues, such as the right of the American military to use Shannon Airport, but stranger things have happened.
Fine Gael, Labour, particularly party leader, Pat Rabbitte, and the Greens will not concede yet that the Alliance for Change is defeated, but the odds on Enda Kenny becoming Taoiseach have now lengthened considerably.
The exit poll will come as a major blow for Labour, which was left stunned by the tns mrbi figures earlier in the week. “We always said it. If this election was fought on the economy, the Government would win. On services, we would win it,” an adviser said back then.
Fianna Fáil is on 41.6% - marginally above what it won in the last election
Fine Gael is on 26.3%, almost 4% ahead of its 2002 result
Potential coalition partner Labour has slipped 1% from the last time, down to 9.9%
The PDs look to be in serious trouble, down to 2.6%, a 1 1/2% drop from 2002
The Greens are up 1%, but will be disappointed to be at just 4.8%
There appears to be no big breakthrough for Sinn Féin, also up just under 1% to 7.3%
Independents and others are down nearly 3% at 7.5%
Of course, the first preference vote does not give a cast-iron indication of how many seats will be won.
Fianna Fáil got a huge seat bonus in the last election and the shape of the next Government may still be determined by transfers.
10:41 am
Leaving aside the exit poll, I wonder to what extent FF will lose out on seats because they ran too few candidates and have few transfers coming to them in areas where they have 2 seats out of 3. They will be very close to shore but might yet get pipped.
Comment by Dan Sullivan