On one side, I have the family members, friends and classmates that I was raised with. Many of them are lifelong Republicans from a small city or small town in central Illinois. They are miserable and several are already proclaiming their intentions to move to Canada.

On the other side, I have my more recent friends and colleagues, connections I made after moving a mere three hours north to Chicago. They are ecstatic, gleefully chanting four more years.While I myself am leaning closer to the mindset of the latter group, I admit to having trouble getting overjoyed with the re-election of a President that 48 per cent of the country didn’t want. We are very clearly a house divided and no good can come of that.

I also hate that so much fear went into deciding this election, not hope.

People voted against Obama because they believe he will take more of their money, infringe on their religious freedom, make America look weak in the eyes of the world and reduce the people’s power in their health care decisions. People voted against Romney because they believed he would take away the hard won rights of women and the LGBT community, hates poor people, lacks foreign policy chops and will fire Big Bird.

I wish I had seen more reasons to vote for each candidate rather than against. I wish I had felt as inspired during the election as I did during the President’s victory speech. There was the talk of unity that should have been there all along. Instead, we saw bickering, name-calling and two candidates who clearly could barely stand to share the same stage let along work together for a compromise. We do indeed rise and fall as one nation as the President said, but I can assure you that if we do fall together, we’ll have at least driven to the point in separate cars. America is a nation of diversity in landscape, heritage, religion and politic. It’s what makes us strong and what can also makes us weak. We have to start learning to meet each other halfway.

Click here to view the embedded video.

“I believe we can seize this future together because we are not as divided as our politics suggests,” said Obama. “We’re not as cynical as the pundits believe. We are greater than the sum of our individual ambitions, and we remain more than a collection of red states and blue states. We are and forever will be the United States of America.”

I hope he’s right, and if he is, it’s time we proved it.

“My dad, as you probably know, was the governor of Michigan and was the head of a car company. But he was born in Mexico… and had he been born of, uh, Mexican parents, I’d have a better shot at winning this. But he was unfortunately born to Americans living in Mexico. He lived there for a number of years. I mean, I say that jokingly, but it would be helpful to be Latino.”

This line was one of the string of gaffes made by Mitt Romney in the videotape leaked several weeks ago, but it’s hard to say whether the Republican candidate should be as lambasted for it as he was.  There is, arguably, a lot of truth in it.

The 2008 election saw the voter biggest turnout since 1964, largely credited to the Obama campaign’s efforts in appealing to the usually reluctant-to-vote black and hispanic communities.  With the 2012 hispanic vote, polls have repeatedly shown Mitt Romney trailing far behind Obama, hovering around the 22% mark in the shadow of Obama’s 70%.  McCain managed to edge 30% in 2008, but the hispanic community has always weighted in favour of the Democratic candidates, particularly since Bill Clinton’s 1996 victory in which he strolled away with 70% of the Latino vote.

This time round there are over four million newly-registered Hispanic voters, up from 19.5 million in 2008 to 23.7 million in 2012, and some predict a turnout of up to 12.2 million, or and as the fastest-growing demographic group in the country, many American news outlets are now contending that if Obama wins this election it will be thanks to the Latino vote.

Most commentators have written off any swing in the Latino vote for Romney. Any last minute efforts to gain fresh appeal have fallen on largely deaf ears.  New Mexico, home to an almost 50% Hispanic population, has been seen as a shoe-in for the Democrats throughout the campaign, and similar results are expected in the other southern border states.  The polling firm Latino Decisions gave its final prediction yesterday, with Obama at 73% and Romney at 22%.  Obama looks set to take close to 80% of minority votes.

As we know from experience though, pre-election estimates don’t always stack up and such percentages and statistical-riven analysis has come under the spotlight lately.  New York Times’ Nate Silver’s latest predictions are upsetting many pundits and party affiliates, as he whittles down Romney’s odds of winning to as little as 9.2 percent.

Michael Gerson, Washington Post columnist and former Bush speechwriter, gave his two cents:  ”Silver’s prediction is not an innovation; it is trend taken to its absurd extreme. He is doing little more than weighting and aggregating state polls and combining them with various historical assumptions to project a future outcome with exaggerated, attention-grabbing exactitude. His work is better summarized as an 86.3 percent confidence that the state polls are correct.”

Gerson continued to say that “the main problem with this approach to politics is not that it is pseudo-scientific but that it is trivial. An election is not a mathematical equation; it is a nation making a decision. People are weighing the priorities of their society and the quality of their leaders. Those views, at any given moment, can be roughly measured. But spreadsheets don’t add up to a political community.” 

Many headlines today predict that the election will come down to the wire, but with Obama pipping it at the final hurdle by taking enough swing states. Let’s see how Silver’s stats work out after the count.

On the eve of E-Day in Des Moines, President Obama fot teary and offered a crowd of 20,000 Iowans simple advice of “Bet on hope.” Today, he’s doing a series of TV interviews with stations in the swing states of Iowa, Ohio, Colorado, Wisconsin, Florida, Nevada and Virginia.

Nate Silver of the New York Times has given rather drastic odds in Obama’s favour, pushing his chances of re-election to 92.2 percent, with 315.3 electoral votes. Dave Weigel of Slate has Romney at 276, and Obama 262. For more election predictions, a great list here.

Meanwhile, Romney’s making visits to Cleveland and Pittsburgh, finishing up what POLITICO called “the most expensive (and) the most garish and debased election of the modern era.”

To ensure continued campaign energy, Romney and Ryan refueled at a Wendy’s. According to a pool report, “Romney bought a quarter pounder hamburger, chili and a frosty. Paul Ryan got a No. 1, which also includes a quarterpounder.”

Via @BuzzFeed

In other news, last-minute early votes reportedly trended Democrat. And Sabrina the Teenage Witch is voting Romney/Ryan: Melissa Joan Hart Tweeted “Can’t get too political in only 140 chac but for those asking, I’m voting #RomneyRyan.”

Keep an eye out for network coverage but bear in mind that on election night in 2008, a few websites, including Slate and Time.com, stated the obvious – that Barack Obama was going to win the presidency – well before the TV networks and major newspapers said so. With the election an uber trend online, websites are one to watch as well…

And FYI, key battleground states poll closing times:

Virginia 7pm

North Carolina 7.30pm

Ohio 7.30pm

Florida 8pm

Pennsylvania 8pm

Wisconsin 9pm

New Hampshire 9pm

Colorado 9pm

Nevada 10pm

Iowa 10pm

]]> http://www.irishtimes.com/blogs/campaign-trail-2012/2012/11/06/halfway-through-election-day/feed/ 0 http://www.irishtimes.com/blogs/campaign-trail-2012/2012/11/06/how-the-magic-happens/ http://www.irishtimes.com/blogs/campaign-trail-2012/2012/11/06/how-the-magic-happens/#comments Tue, 06 Nov 2012 12:45:08 +0000 inovacic http://www.irishtimes.com/blogs/campaign-trail-2012/?p=1191 E-Day is upon us. Some states are probably more grateful than others, relentless rallies, knocked-down doors, and campaign ad bombardment is almost over.

And most people are probably wondering how it all works. How come the fruit of all that can be delivered and sealed in just one day? Well I’ve made a list of *Fun Facts* to help you navigate today’s events.

1. Early votes aren’t counted separately, but thrown in with the completed lot in each states, as polls close.

2. Each state has different hours of operation for the polls. For example, Ohio polls are open 6:30 AM to 7:30 PM Eastern Time. More info per state listed here. If you are in line at a poll closing time, you still have the legal right to wait your turn and cast your ballot.

3. At most polling places, there will poll workers (usually volunteers) and one or two election officials, or election judges. Some states require one Republican and one Democratic election judge at each polling place.

5. Throughout E-Day, voters are interviewed like crazy to aggregate data on how many people voted for who ahead of the official count. This is known as exit polling, and provides the first indication of  who will win, but those results will be under tight lock down until 5 p.m. The exit poll analysts are literally quarantined in a room, with no Internet and no way to reach the outside world.

4. When all ballots are casts, its showtime: an election judge sends sealed ballot boxes to a central vote counting facility, usually a government office like a courthouse.

5. The time it takes to cout the votes depends on each state, but results are typically known by the wee hours of the morning after the election. In terms of media coverage, usually, once AP calls it, it’s accepted that a winner has been selected.

6. Key issues: economy, healthcare, women’s rights, taxation, immigration.

Track votes here, and I would recommend following CNN, especially for folks in ireland who don’t have access to US network channels.

Latest polls 7:38am, 6 Nov 2012

At present, on the morning of the election, latest polls show the popular vote is close. According to Political Wire Obama perhaps having a lead of around 0.8%. Most eve-of-election polls showed President Barack Obama with a razor-thin lead over Republican challenger Mitt Romney. The winner will be determined by who gets 270 electoral college votes; most polling experts agree Mr Obama has more paths to get there.

FYI – everything about voter ID law, courtesy of ProPublica, here.

This post is by Jack Farrell, 22, an Organising Fellow for the Obama campaign in Toledo, Ohio. Farrell, from County Down in Ireland, is a recent politics graduate of Trinity College, Dublin. Follow him @WJ_Farrell.

Farrell with his boss

The field is the least glamorous part of a political campaign; we do the work that no one else wants to. But our volunteers, who have worked with us for months, are so committed to the cause that the intensity never drops. When we knock doors, we knock until we drop.

In the wake of Sandy, America briefly presented a united front. The bipartisan cooperation between Barack Obama and Chris Christie shows that democrats and republicans can work together. But this picture is misleading; America has become a polarized society with a diminishing tolerance for understanding the opposite point of view. Being from Northern Ireland I’m often asked about the Troubles and if the situation is still bad. Firstly, I tell them that we’ve come a long way and things are constantly improving and secondly, that nationalists and unionists cooperate better than republicans and democrats.

Ohio has been deluged with big names in the past week as both campaigns try to close the deal on the king of the swing states. I staffed a Bill Clinton event in a local university and although the exhausting effect of the campaign was evident even on Bill, he still has the magic; it was obvious why he has been used as a one-man hit squad in recent weeks. Deployed across the swing states to consolidate and energise our supporters, Bill even found time to give Ireland a mention in his speech.

Bill Clinton speaks to a recent University event crowd

We launched our Get out the Vote (GOTV) initiative over the weekend. Both parties are doing it, but we’re confident we have an edge in numbers, enthusiasm and organization.

Ohio’s importance in this election has grown and grown, especially Toledo, and this hasn’t been lost on our volunteers. For the past week our Toledo office has been inundated with volunteers from all across America, and as the ranks of our white-knuckle army expand, the atmosphere grows more and more electric. Toledo is probably the most important city in the country for President Obama, and that only adds to the excitement; if we can GOTV in Toledo, we’ll win Ohio, and if we win Ohio, we’ll win the election.

Even though there are more people around, the sense of camaraderie remains strong. Hearing the volunteers’ stories, and why they are here to help, is both fascinating and inspiring, and when I’m exhausted and fed up with inputting data and making calls, it’s a reminder of why I’m here myself.

Farrell with fellow volunteers, including Irish man Eoin Murphy and Irish woman Claire Acton

This is the final push. For two months I’ve been working towards this line on the horizon, and all of our hard work is reaping tangible rewards: our army’s grown, we’re hitting more doors than ever, and we’re operating efficiently despite the pressure and the increased numbers. The closer we got to the election, the longer our days have become. Twelve hours now seem like a doddle.

As I said in my last post, I’m tired, we’re all tired… I’m actually shattered. And no matter how strongly I’ve embraced the positive ideals of hope and change, the fear of defeat is an equal driver. I’ll enjoy winning, but I hate the thought of losing, so if it entails no sleep and a high carbohydrate diet, this is what it takes.

I’ve been so busy I haven’t had the time to properly process my time here; I’ve knocked as many doors as one man could without being eaten by a pitbull, I’ve called more people than the population of County Louth, and I’ve eaten more doughnuts than was physically possible. I was the best neighbourhood scourge I could be. My friend Laura from New Jersey told me that the day after Sandy she saw a fleet of Ohio cars driving through and assumed that they were heading to a disaster zone to escape from me. No one was safe from my powers of pestering…so maybe it’s time to give the people of Ohio a break. They deserve it. They have been wonderful hosts and the people I’ve had the pleasure to work alongside on the campaign have made this experience extremely rewarding.

As I write this it’s 2am on the morning of the election. I’m just home from the office and my alarm is set to go off in 2 hours. Polls open in just over 4 hours. I’m exhausted but I can’t sleep, running on fumes at this point. We’re ready, I’m ready, and my volunteers are ready.

We are, as President Obama refers to us, the tip of the spear.

I have lived a dream, but now it’s time to win this thing.

Romney has largely avoided discussing his Mormon faith throughout his campaign, speaking in general terms about his church-related values and charitable deeds, and describing it as a religion that “flows from the Judeo-Christian values that have been part of (America) from its founding.”

Read the Irish Times’ Carl O’Briens take on Romney’s candidacy and how it’s helping to mainstream Mormonism.

Formally, the Mormon church does not support any candidate, but, writes O’Brien, “there’s no getting away from what a profound moment the Republican candidate’s election would be for this often marginalised and misunderstood faith.”

Click here to view the embedded video.

In recent weeks, Romney’s pro-life religious stances caused some Catholic Bishops to rally support for the Republican candidate. For example, on Thursday, bishops of Pennsylvania — a  key battleground state where most Catholics are currently supporting Obama — released an unmistakably partisan letter to local voters declaring that the White House’s policies on contraception, abortion and gay rights meant the nation was “losing its soul by little steps.”

“Yes, the bishops, some of them anyway, are more active this year. The tone — again, of some — is more stark,” Russell Shaw, a former spokesman for the U.S. Conference of Catholic Bishops, told the Washington Post.

But, on the whole, this is a campaign in which his faith has hardly been a factor, analysts say.

“I can’t remember a campaign with less overt religiosity in my lifetime,” John Turner, an assistant professor of religious studies at George Mason University outside Washington, told AFP.

Romney is a devout member of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints, founded in the United States in the 19th century and dismissed by some as a cult to be looked upon with suspicion. More info here.

My belief in Mitt Romney started is 2007 and I continue to support his quest for the White House. Americans deserve better than the false propaganda that President Obama has brought. We need true change and reform and with this tattoo I believe I can spread the message for a better nation.

The President has boldfaced lied to the American people. He promised that our deficit would be cut in half, it has doubled. 36 million on food stamps and a unemployment rate that was up to over 8%. You can consider this change, but not for the better and not to the benefit of the American People.  President Obama stated, ”if I can’t turn the economy around in three years, I will be looking at a one-term proposition.” The people can clearly see that this economy has not turned around and according to the president, he does not deserve another term. Some try to blame the president short comings on the Bush presidency, Obama knew the problems he was facing when he ran for office, yet he still promised change with no results. I am not trying to diminish our President as I am in no position to do so, I am simply stating facts that the people need to know. I believe President Obama is a good man, his ideas just simply are not working and he his bringing no new plans to the table, that’s why we need Governor Romney.

I own a small wrestling company and when Romney says that he wants to ”champion small business” he is talking to me along with millions of others Americans. Mitt Romney, being a successful businessman, knows how to do that. He knows how to create jobs, where Obama has failed. He understands the needs of people and how to grow the economy. He has shown that he is successful at leading by being governor of Massachusetts. Romney is the change we need and deserve and the future of America is in the people’s hands.

I hope that this tattoo will encourage others to go out and vote. Obviously I want people to cast their ballot in favor of Gov. Romney but regardless of your candidate President Obama or Governor Romney I want to emphasize voter awareness.

I want to show that the Republican Party does not have to be stereotyped as rich or elderly people. We are not bogeymen. I am a 30-year-old in the lower class who is looking for a real recovery along with millions of others. I am an extreme example of what an Obama Economy has become.  I am showing young people that they don’t have to be afraid to outwardly be and vote Republican.

I welcome and appreciate everyone’s opinion on the tattoo but I have no regrets win or lose. If Romney is not elected I know in my heart that I did all I could personally do to help my party, my candidate, and my country. Even though I have been approached by some calling me a hero for my sacrifice and shedding blood for the cause, while I appreciate those comments I reject myself as any kind of hero. I surmise myself as simply a father and a husband doing what I know is right and hope the fun loving, quirky character I am isn’t lost in the serious content matter. I love the controversy and it has given me a little notoriety but I hope it can open some new doors for me professionally and perhaps offer me a new career avenue to pursue.

1. #Sandy. She’s succeeded in impacting this election, and I don’t just mean the candidate’s image, or things like winning Obama the endorsement of NYC’s Mayor Bloomberg – she’s hit it where it counts, voting. A lot of people on the East Coast, with damaged homes, dealing with floods and gas shortages, don’t have voting at the forefront of their minds. Virginia and North Carolina, canceled early voting hours last week. Many say ‘they’ll see’ if they have time to vote. New Jersey authorities also took the uncommon step of declaring that any voter displaced from their home would be designated an overseas voter, allowing them to submit an absentee vote by fax or email. Another important fallout is the potential effect on the popular vote. For example, Obama will still most likely carry New York, but in the case of significantly lowered turnout, he’d win the electoral college but not win the national vote.

Since we’re on the subject…

2. Voting. The Obama campaign heralded it’s get-out-the-vote operations and said on Saturday that it’s beating the Romney campaign among early voters in the battleground states. But given that the President’s early-vote advantages is currently smaller than in 2008, the Romney campaign responded by arguing Team Obama was overplaying its hand.

3. Polls. The two candidates are neck and neck in Ohio, Florida, Virginia and Colorado, according to the latest Reuters/Ipsos poll. According to Nate Silver of the New York Times, the barrage of swing state polls showing Obama leading Mitt Romney represents “powerful evidence against the idea that the race is a ‘tossup.’ He writes Obama is poised with an 84% chance to win: “There were 22 polls of swing states published Friday. Of these, Mr. Obama led in 19 polls, and two showed a tie. Mitt Romney led in just one of the surveys, a Mason-Dixon poll of Florida.”

4. Battleground. When The Daily Show’s Jon Stewart took a closer look at what Ohioans have had to endure the last few weeks, his funny video underscored a key issue: Obama and Romney have only focused on 10 key states throughout this election. (50 years ago, president’s campaigned in all 50). This weekend, the candidates are sprinting through some of them, reflecting both campaigns’ closely fought battle to ensure their supporters turn out.  Yesterday it was Ohio, New Hampshire and Virginia, Colorado respectively. Today, Romney’s public schedule remains undecided, while Obama’s includes another trip to Ohio, reflecting it’s key role.

Learn what pundits are saying on last Sunday shows before Election Day here. 

And here are the two latests videos from each campaign, published today.

(The Republicam surrogates who came to Ohio will reportedly fan out to 11 swing states for events in the final three full days before voters cast their ballots. The program is called the “Romney-Ryan Real Recovery Road Rally.”)

Click here to view the embedded video.

Paul Ryan summed up this sentiment during his speech at the rally: “This is our moment Ohio. This is the time when we want to wake up on Wednesday morning and see that we met the moment. We want to make sure that we talked to everybody we know that thought hope and change sounded good, but they now know it didn’t work. This is the time to elect a leader. This is the moment when the man and the moment are meeting personally.”

Click here to view the embedded video.

Romney told Ohians: “Your state is the one I’m counting on, by the way. This is the one we have to win.”

People’s social media accounts of the rally here.

His message: @Reince it’s coming #RomneyTsunami Sutrf’s Up

I’m guessing it’s a reference to GOP countering of Obama’s early voting strategy with claims that a flood of pro-Romney voters – “a voting tsunami” –  is waiting for Election Day to come out and wash away Obama. As one Republican analyst put it: ”Democrats are cannibalizing their high-propensity voters in advance of election day to get stories that they are winning. But in effect they are stealing from Peter, or Election Day, to pay Paul, or early voting.”

Either way, I initially mistook the photoshop as anti-Romney; I think still fail to comprehend the creative decisions behind it.

He also Tweeted this.