A member of the Swiss special police forces stands on the roof of a hotel in Davos as the annual meeting in the alpine resort got under way last January. Photograph: Reuters

With everyone from Bono to Archbishop Diarmuid Martin, Peter Sutherland to George Soros, heading to the exclusive Swiss ski resort of Davos every January, it’s little surprise that the annual meeting of the World Economic Forum has been accused of being a little exclusive. Although the number of bankers in attendance has fallen off since the crisis of 2008, the annual event, which takes place from January 25th-29th this year, can still be considered Glastonbury for the world’s monied and powerful elite.

The Forum is now using social media to try and change those perceptions and this year is pushing its Ask a Leader programme hard. Using its YouTube channel the public is being asked to submit questions it would like to see answered  by “heads of state and government, leaders from business and civil society, heads of international organizations, as well as media and academics”. The submitted questions will be voted on with the most popular getting a response from a special video booth at the event.

It’s hard to see how the views of the hoi polloi will make much impact at the end of the month but those who feel excluded from the proceedings in Davos can’t say they weren’t asked for their opinion.

Some chinks of light for technology industry in Budget 2012 – Deloitte

 Budget 2012 tax measures are Business Aware – Chartered Accountants Ireland

2% stamp duty rate to attract foreign investors – Deloitte

Irish Tax Institute says export led tax measures will help Irish companies target international markets

Lowering of Commercial Stamp Duty will Stimulate Moribund Property Market – Dublin Chamber

Decision not to reduce the current level in tax relief on pension contributions welcomed by Aviva Ireland

We warmly welcome the commitment today by Minister Noonan that legislation will be introduced in 2012 to address the issue of very cheap alcohol – Vintners’ Federation

Surveyors say measures in Budget 2012 will stimulate activity in property and construction sector;

Institute of Directors in Ireland welcomes Government supports for business in Budget 2012

The Irish Exporters Association(IEA) Welcomes Minister Michael Noonan’s Budget 2012 – Stating it Will Provide Major Boost to Export Growth Prospects

CIF: property market measures welcome but mixed budget for construction

 Ideally they should earn less than €10,036 – to be exempt from the universal social charge – and be looking to buy a house this year, if not a commercial property. to avail of a range of tax concessions.

Oh yes…if they had a relation looking to sell then the family farm, this is also their  year as various measures to encourage farming and the transfer of farms were announced.

The losers are all householders, even those very rich ones who don’t live here and have tried to avoid the domicle tax buy dumping their Irish passports.  They can also look forward to paying more to tax their environmentaly friendly beemer and  more DIRT on their savings…..

Dont beleive us….read the following from PwC………..

On Personal Tax
On Personal tax, Mary O’Hara, HR & Reward Partner, PwC said “Given the amount of speculation and leaks in advance of Budget 2012, there was probably more good news than bad for individual taxpayers. On personal tax, the Government did stick to their promise of no changes in income tax rates or credits. In addition, a number of measures designed to incentivise employment were announced. These include:

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  • A special assignee relief programme to attract key talent to Ireland for business expansion purposes, which will be welcomed both by multinationals and indigenous employers
  • Tax relief where an individual spends 60 days a year developing markets for Ireland in Brazil, Russia, India, China & South Africa, which will clearly be welcomed by exporters
  • A scheme for delivering tax efficient bonuses to individuals involved in R&D activities, which should go some way to addressing CEOs’ concerns over the retention of key talent.

Mary O’Hara also commented that there was good news for certain categories of individuals, including:

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  • Those earning less than €10,036, who will benefit from an exemption from the Universal Social Charge from 1 January 2012 house buyers during 2012, who will benefit from enhanced mortgage interest relief (25% for first time buyers and 15% for others).

Along with the €100 charge for all householders, a number of other areas targeted for less favourable treatment include:

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  • The domicile levy, which has come under the spotlight, with the removal of the citizenship requirement motoring, with increased motor taxation from 1 January 2012 and the threat of a VRT review savings, with increased DIRT deductions (up from 27% to 30%)”

On VAT
On VAT Tom Corbett, VAT Partner, PwC said “The increase in VAT rate from 21% to 23% from 1 January 2012 will present challenges for businesses to implement the required pricing, documentation and systems changes in the short timescale. It is critical that steps are taken immediately in order to be ready for the new year.”

On business tax/corporate tax
On business tax, Jean Delaney, Tax Partner, PwC said ” the Minister’s plans for encouraging focus on emerging markets, dealing with high value skills shortages and driving innovation are to be welcomed”. On corporate tax, Jean Delaney added “that the Minister affirmed again the Government’s commitment to the 12.5% tax rate while introducing changes to the R&D tax credit regime designed to encourage SME’s in particular”.

On Pensions
On Pensions Alan Bigley, PwC Pensions Partner, said “The Minister has introduced a relatively small number of revenue generating measures in the Pensions area principally around distributions from ARF’s and the full abolition of employer PRSI relief on employee pension contributions.

However despite signals to the contrary there have been no further reductions in the Standard Fund Threshold or the tax relief applying to pension contributions.

The Minister has stated that incentives for supplementary pension will have to be reformed.

We would see these reforms as possibly including:

• Further reductions in the Standard Fund Threshold.
• Reductions in tax relief on contributions.
• Possible retention of the pensions levy.

It is unfortunate that we have continued uncertainty in the regime which will apply to taxation of pension savings in the medium term. Pension savings are a long term commitment and individuals need to have certainty as to the taxation regime which will apply to these commitments.

On stamp duty/capital gains/property
On stamp duty and capital gains tax, Tim O’Rahilly, Tax Partner, PwC said “The Minister has reduced the top rate of Stamp Duty on commercial real estate from 6% to 2%. In addition, he has introduced a Capital Gains Tax exemption for property purchased between today and 31 December 2013 provided the property is held for seven years. There measures are very welcome as they make Irish real estate relatively attractive from a tax perspective for Irish and international investors. “

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Here’s their main predictions for today:

• 2 percntage point increase in VAT (thank you German parliamentary budget committee)
• PRSI to cover rental income
• 5-10 per cent hike in motor tax (will raise €50 million)
• Unspecified increase in Dirt tax on savings
• €100 household charge
• Carbon tax increase on petrol, diesel and heating oil

Most of this of course has been out already. Despite the attention grabbing headlines it seems the Herald is not getting the same standard of Budget leaks from the FG/Lab government that it did from FF administrations.

Hamlet’s Pre-budget reflection:

To spend or not to spend, that is the question

Whether its prudent in hindsight to accept the

Guarantees from Bankers for outrageous fortune;

Or to take cash, avoiding dodgy credit troubles,

And by debiting, end them. To spend to save

No more, and by that saving, say we end

The headache and the thousand fiscal shocks

That cash is heir to. Is it a consumerism

Devoutly to be wished? To spend, to save

To save, nay, e’er give alms – Ay there’s the rub!

For in that act of faith what value may accrue

When we have shuffled off this mortal coil

Must give us pause. There’s one aspect

That makes calamity of an inner life.

For who would hear insider tips- a source of crime:

The investors wronged, the profit margin’s increase;

The pain of repossession, the Creditor’s repay,

The insolence of office of one who earns

More than is merit yet unworthily takes,

While another might his fortunes make?

With a mere mouse click!

Who would such bad faith bear,

To grind an sweat under a weary life;

But that dread of something beyond debt;

The pre-determined debt-ratio, from whose burden

No Government dares retrieve, sweetens the pill,

And makes us rather pay those debts we have

Than buy in others that we know not of.

Thus indebtedness makes vassals of us all.

And thus the natural mode of self-determination

Is ensnared o’er with the dark clouds of debt.

And enterprises of great pith and moment

With interest their currency turn awry,

And lose the name of action.

The main points are:

• Child benefit cut to the standard rate of €140 across the board (a family with four children looses €768 a year)
• The €200 back to school allowance scrapped
• 40 Garda stations to be closed, mostly in Dublin area
• €500-600 million in social welfare cuts
• College registration fees rising €250 to €2,250
• Fuel allowance only available for 26 weeks
• A household charge of €100 will be introduced raising €160 million
• Standard unemployment and pension payments unchanged
• Cuts to education budgets of €200 million

“I wish I could tell you that the Budget won’t impact on every citizen in need, but I can’t,” Mr Kenny said.

While there is plenty of speculation about what may or not be under threat from the Budget, here’s a round up of what various analysts around town are predicting.

Glas Securities:

In a note to clients this morning the bond market specialists say that Brendan Howlin is likely to announce spending cuts of Expenditure cuts of €2.2 billion, although €750 million will come from already announced cuts in capital spending. m has already been earmarked in the form of lower capital spending. Glas predicts day to day spending cuts will come from lowering public sector numbers, primarily through a recruitment ban and early retirement programmes. They also point to media reports that Health and Social Welfare will contribute €500 million each of the cuts.

Glas point out that tomorrow Minister for Finance Michael Noonan will have to raise €1.6 billion in taxation, but approximately €600 million of this is a carry over from the full year impact of measures introduced in the 2011 Budget. They say the €1 billion will be raised by increasing VAT by 2 percentage points, a higher rate of deposit interest Dirt tax and the introduction of a household/property tax.

Bloxham:

The stockbroker’s research team point out that the increase in VAT will raise an extra €670 million. They suggest the balance of tax measures will focus on the property tax introduction and increases in motor, carbon and capital gains taxes.

On the spending side, they expect the criteria for many social welfare payments to be tightened up and say child benefit may be reduced.

The Bloxham analystscaution that the Government deficit target of €17.3 billion may not be met due to the global economic slowdown and as a result even more austerity may be required.

Goodbody Stockbrokers:

In its morning note Goodbody chief economist Dermot O’Leary says that €2.2 billion of spending cuts will be announced today, while a further €1 billion in new taxation measures will be announced tomorrow afternoon.

“With an estimated structural budget deficit of €9bn in 2012, Ireland has little choice but to continue with its budget consolidation efforts. One thinks that these efforts this week will be overshadowed by events in Europe outside of its control,” O’Leary concludes.