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  • Michael Lewis profiles our new overlords

    August 16, 2011 @ 3:03 pm | by John Collins

    Germany now owns Europe and if the rest of us want to enjoy the benefits of European political and financial union then we better start acting more German. That’s the broad c0nclusion of Michael Lewis’s latest article on the European economy which is published in this month’s Vanity Fair. As with his previous articles on Ireland, Iceland and Greece it’s well worth a read.

    Lewis explores the German national character which he reckons is overly scatalogical and concludes that any society that is obsessed with cleanliness on the outside and dirt on the inside was bound to be a sucker for triple A rated bonds stuffed full of sub-prime loans.

    There’s an interesting line about Ireland, and one that should concern us if European leaders continue to play catch up with this crisis:

    The German government gives money to the European Union rescue fund so that it can give money to the Irish government so that the Irish government can give money to Irish banks so the Irish banks can repay their loans to the German banks. “They are playing billiards,” says [German economist Henrik] Enderlein. “The easier way to do it would be to give German money to the German banks and let the Irish banks fail.”

    Some commentators, including my colleague Dominic Coyle last Monday, have pointed out that the nub of the issue is whether the Germans want to pick up the tab for the rest of the euro zone. A senior official at the Bundesbank suggested to Lewis that Germany may be in a better position to do that than many people think:

    “We have 3,400 tons of gold,” he said. “We are the only country that has not sold its original allotment from the [late 1940s]. So we are covered to some extent.”

    Beautifully written and researched as usual Lewis’s article provides plenty of food for thought. Hopefully it will be read in the Élysée Palace and Bundestag.

  • Business podcast: April 7th

    April 7, 2011 @ 7:30 am | by John Collins

    This week with ECB rates on the rise we look at what it might mean for already cash-strapped consumers; how to make your wardrobe make you money and venture capitalists in Silicon Valley are still flashing the cash.

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  • Business podcast: March 16th

    March 15, 2011 @ 6:51 pm | by John Collins

    John Collins talks to Paddy Power about Cheltenham, Stephen Falloon from the Grand Canal Theatre, Mike Fitzgerald of Altobridge, and Simon Carswell about the Ireland First group

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  • Business podcast: February 3rd

    February 3, 2011 @ 9:30 am | by John Collins

    John Collins talks to Dan O’Brien about economic predictions for 2011, Suzanne Lynch about Greencore’s stalled merger, Dr Diarmuid O’Brien of Nanoweek and Oren Michels from US software firm Mashery.

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  • Business podcast: Budget 2011 special

    December 7, 2010 @ 8:03 pm | by John Collins

    John Collins hosts a special Irish Times business podcast on Budget 2011 with Dan O’Brien, economics editor, Conor Pope, Pricewatch editor and business reporter Laura Slattery

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  • So what does Mark Grant of Southwest know?

    November 10, 2010 @ 1:07 pm | by John Collins

    “Ireland is going bankrupt…they’ve got maybe 60 days of money left”. Those were the comments of Mark Grant, a managing director of Southwest Securities, a regional brokerage in Dallas, on Bloomberg TV on Monday. You can watch the video here (Bloomberg doesn’t allow embedding).

    His comments have got a lot of airplay – RTE showed the clip on both its main bulletins last night. Grant, and fellow interviewee John Brynjolfsson, chief investment officer at Armored Wolf (a Californian hedge fund) actually talk quite a bit of sense as the interview goes on – this is more a eurozone sovereign debt issue than an Irish one.

    But what’s been reported is Grant’s apocalyptic comments that we are two months away from running out of money. So why is an obscure broker from Dallas the only person saying this when every serious commentator admits Ireland is fully funded until next summer? Even our own Taoiseach has admitted that.

    It would be very interesting if Bloomberg had asked Grant and Brynjolfsson if their funds hold any positions relating to Ireland or the rest of the eurozone. It’s well known that US hedge funds have been making hay out of our problems in the last two years.

  • Peston gets to the heart of our banking crisis

    September 27, 2010 @ 5:14 pm | by John Collins

    At the risk of stating the blindingly obvious international media attention is firmly focused on Ireland; our stuggling economy, our toxic banks and the social habits of our leader. (more…)

  • Double dipping

    September 23, 2010 @ 5:48 pm | by Laura Slattery

    With news that our GDP and GNP rates fell back in the second quarter, Ireland is half-way to a dreaded “double-dip” recession – although Brian Cowen denied suggestions this afternoon that the country is on the verge of the big “W”. Cowen told RTE radio: “I don’t accept that at all.”

    As the standard definition of a recession is two consecutive quarters of negative growth, Cowen won’t have to accept it until the CSO publishes Ireland’s third-quarter numbers. Only then will we discover if Ireland is in a double dip recession, or merely flirting with one.

    Fears of a double dip in the global economy are regularly dismissed by everyone from CEOs to central bankers. Today, the release of a relatively healthy US gauge on future economic activity and a rise in US home sales indicated that “the case for a double dip is weaker”, investment adviser Hugh Johnson told Reuters. This week, Douglas McWilliams, chief executive of the think tank CEBR, declared he was “prepared to bet one of my better shirts on there being no global double dip”.

    Meanwhile, Warren Buffett, investment guru and chief executive of Berkshire Hathaway, said earlier this month that the US would “not have a double-dip recession at all”. Economist Nouriel Roubini, however, is somewhat less confident, announcing via Twitter in August that the risk of a double-dip recession in advanced economies (US, Japan and the euro zone), had “now risen to 40 per cent”.

    The final word goes to European Central Bank (ECB) president Jean-Claude Trichet, who noted recently that the euro zone recovery would continue “at a moderate pace with uncertainty still prevailing”. A double-dip recession, he said, was not “in the cards”.

  • FT view on the Irish banking collapse

    May 17, 2010 @ 1:19 pm | by John Collins

    The Financial Times ran a lengthy piece by David Gardner, their international affairs editor, over the weekend. It’s entitled “How bankers brought Ireland to its knees” and is well worth a read. (more…)

  • Any job will do: is part-time working for keeps?

    March 26, 2010 @ 2:00 pm | by Laura Slattery

    Of all the forces with the potential to flatter Ireland’s unemployment rate (not that the latest rate of 13.1 per cent could be described as flattering), arguably the most worrying is the shift towards part-time working. Migration flows and declining participation rates can be reversed. However, if the greater prevalence of part-time employment in the labour market reflects a greater casualisation of labour, the impact on our working lives could well outlast this recession.

    Between 1998 and 2008, the percentage of people in employment who worked part-time hovered in the tight range of 16-18 per cent, Kieran Walsh of the Central Statistics Office (CSO) said on Wednesday. Going back further in time, the proportion of part-timers in the workforce has also more or less stuck to these levels. Now it has increased to 22 per cent: more than one in five people in employment work part-time. This, said Walsh, was an “interesting figure”, and one that signals a change in the make-up of employment.

    The CSO’s data for 2009 employment trends, contained in the Quarterly National Household Survey (QNHS), gives the latest snapshot. While the number of people in full-time employment fell by 193,200 in the year to the fourth quarter of 2009, there was an increase of 26,400 in part-time employment over the period. The diverging trends suggest that employees are searching for any work that they can get, noted Goodbody Stockbrokers. “Any job will do,” its analysts remarked.

    What’s that you say? Working part-time sounds like a waking dream come true? Indeed, many part-time workers, such as people easing their way into retirement or the parents of young children, do so by choice (although employers are not obliged to offer part-time positions to workers, a fact that helps limit promotional opportunities). Others, such as workers who have accepted short time in order to avoid redundancies may otherwise retain their employment conditions: part-time for everyone may be better than full-time for some and zero hours for those who are pushed out the door. But for the most part, this increased desperation can only work in favour of flexibility-demanding employers and against the long-term interests of employees.

    Thanks to an EU directive on the matter – transposed into Irish law in 2001 – Irish employers are not officially permitted to treat part-time workers less favourably than a comparable full-time employee when it comes to the conditions of their employment (with some latitude on pensions). In practice, however, part-timers are often ghettoised into particular roles so that their jobs are not comparable to those of full-timers: less favourable treatment, including designation as a “casual” worker, ensues.

    The CSO’s latest National Employment Survey – the most in-depth study of workplace conditions – found that full-time workers in October 2007 earned an average of €21.17 per hour, while their part-time equivalents earned an average hourly rate of €15.40.

    The gap in pay can be partly explained by the concentration of part-time workers in lower-paid sectors. But it also reflects the fact that part-timers have less bargaining power than full-time employees. This is literally the case: the CSO asked QNHS respondents if they belonged to a trade union: 37 per cent of full-time employees did, but just 20 per cent of part-timers had the cushion of an organisation that will bargain on their behalf.

    Time will tell if the part-time rate will stick at its current level, increase further, or fall back down to 16-18 per cent as the labour market recovers. My guess is that employers will prove unwilling to sacrifice the crisis-era levels of flexibility they have managed to win from workers. But another possibility is that the generation of enforced part-time workers could become so blissfully accustomed to their enviable work-life balance that they shun employers’ demands to return to full-time labour - and the cost of living is low enough for that to be affordable. I think I might be dreaming again.


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