Current Account

  • Back to the future

    July 28, 2009 @ 4:22 pm | by John Collins

    The current recession is really engendering a feeling of 1980s deja vu; long dole queues, boarded-up shops, hundreds of people applying for 10s of jobs. Of course the summers were much better back then but at least the general levels of weath in the country are much higher now.

    The 1980s sprung to mind again when this press release passed over my desk. Basically 40 unemployed people will get their fees paid to do a Bachelor of Business Studies through the distance learning programme and they will also keep their dole, sorry Jobseekers Allowance. Students signing on - it really is the 80s again.

    Glibness aside, it does look like an ideal opportunity for the recently employed to re-engage with formal education and as business qualifications in this country go, you don’t get much better than UCD’s Quinn School of Business.

  • Ikea - fiscal stimulus or predatory giant?

    July 27, 2009 @ 3:45 pm | by John Collins

    Ikea finally opened its doors in Ballymum this morning after years of, in my opinion, over the top media attention and speculation. Apparrently about 3,000 people passed through the doors during the first two hours of trading at the Swedish home furnishings giant. That’s pretty respectable in the teeth of a recession. Of course if they had opened at the height of the Celtic Tiger, as they hoped to do, the scences would probably have been similar to the chaotic opening in Edmonton, North London in 2005 which saw five people hospitalised and the store closed after 30 minutes.

    The possible economic impact of Ikea on an already decimated furniture sector will be watched closely. Gerry Harvey, the Aussie businessman behind Harvey Norman, has been telling anyone who will listen about how his 14 Irish stores are hemorrhaging money, while high profile stores and chains such as HabitatArramount, Land of Leather, Classic Furniture and Jim Langan have got into trouble or ceased trading.

    Luckily Irish entrepreneurs are seeing the potential in the arrival of the kings of the flatpack. If you don’t like allen keys and confusing intructions take your choice between any number of out of work carpenters and handymen who will do the task for you such as FlatpackUnpack.ie and Notboxes. Personally my favourite is the slightly crudely named Simple Assembly Me Hole.

  • Swine flu symptoms and the art of pandemic planning

    July 24, 2009 @ 1:00 pm | by Laura Slattery

    I have an ache in my back and I’m a bit sniffly. It’s just an average day, in other words, but with swine flu threatening to swirl around the nation any week now and the new NHS website in England swamped by feverish symptom-checkers and the “worried well” at a rate of 2,600 hits per second, it’s only sensible to consider the possibility that the H1N1 virus is busy incubating itself right now and really I should quarantine myself at home with a box of tissues and a box set.

    Instead, I’m in the office, gambling with the health of my co-workers, which is what a lot of people who definitely have contracted swine flu will probably end up doing. The HSE this week warned businesses to prepare for a 15 per cent absenteeism rate as a result of swine flu and issued a 63-page pandemic planning document that my head hurts too much to read (again, nothing unusual there). But how many ill workers will make the misconceived effort to clock in - either due to ego-driven workaholicism, guilt at the resulting pressure on co-workers or fear for their jobs - when they really should be in bed?

    I recently interviewed the new head of employers group Ibec, Danny McCoy, and he claimed that duvet days have more or less died along with the boom. Pale-faced martyrdom is this season’s sickie. However, my completely medically unqualified opinion is that if economic uncertainty really has led to an intensified culture of presenteeism, that could actually help spread the virus and ultimately make more people sick.

    It’s also not the kind of phenomenon that small business group Isme captures when it interviews its own members and comes up with the astonishing, dubious and frankly disheartening statistic that employers reckon more than 80 per cent of sick days are feigned. The stress of knowing that their bosses think they’re malingering liars certainly isn’t going to speed up anyone’s recovery.

    Meanwhile, having just conducted some impromptu journalistic research in the lift, it seems no one in the Irish Times has yet succumbed to the H1N1 virus - not that they’re admitting to, at least. But if a 15 per cent absenteeism rate were to hit the company, some 65 (okay, 64.5) out of the newspaper’s 430 staff would have to take time off work, whether it is because they are ill themselves or need to care for others who are ill. There’s not going to be a lot of news that day.

    My colleague, the motors editor, assures me that you can’t apply national statistics like this to a workplace of our size, and that as we’re all “healthy, strapping” individuals, we’re probably more flu-fit than the national average. Nice. Socio-economic factors and, strangely, the fact that we’re also not the youngest of workplaces may also help: there is anecdotal evidence that people born before 1957 - aged 52 and over - have some immunity to the current incarnation of H1N1 because their immune systems have a memory of a similar 1950s strain of influenza.

    Ah. Series Four of House will have to wait. I’m in the middle of writing this post when I’m asked to cover a shift for a sick colleague. In the language of the HSE’s swine flu continuity planning document, I am the “nominated deputy”. It’s the kind of role I imagine most workers will find themselves in at some point this autumn/winter 2009/2010. Although personally I like the sound of “pandemic tsar” a lot better.

  • Smiling in desperation

    July 20, 2009 @ 1:55 pm | by Laura Slattery

    “Smile!” Agghhhh. Is there anything more likely to elicit inner rage than random male strangers barking completely unsolicited ”cheer up, luv” orders at you when you’re walking down the street failing to look unthreateningly amenable enough for their taste?

    Trying to dictate the mood of someone who’s (quite happily, thank you very much) minding their own business is a peculiarly sheer gall, but if you’re unlucky enough to work in certain parts of the services sector, maintaining facial expressions that are deemed appropriately pleasant is part of the terms and conditions of the job, it seems. The days of being quietly perturbed by American “have a nice day” culture are long gone: we’ve started to demand that people who get paid less than us must actually enjoy our custom, or at least go to the trouble of faking it.

    In the Irish tourism industry, getting front-line staff to beam at Texan backpackers until their cheeks sag is now part of the current marketing strategy - well, it’s cheaper than actually investing in our tourist attractions. At the last count, there were annual revenues of €4.2 billion hanging on our effervescence as a nation. Desperation has clearly set in: CSO figures for May released last week reveal an 18.4 per cent decline in overseas visits compared to the same month last year. So if you’re an art gallery attendant whose genetic facial inheritance means you always look a little down in the mouth, or a cabin crew member who’s a bit tetchy after serving coffee in six different time zones, Tourism Ireland and Fáilte Ireland have created a handy little attitude-reprogramming website, Ireland Shines, just for you.

    Rather confusingly, “be natural” is one of the “behaviours” that tourism workers are to employ in this Ireland of the Welcomes, mark II. It is surely impossible by definition to actually instruct someone to be natural. In any case, being ”natural” can mean a whole rainbow of moods: some people are naturally perky, others need a steady supply of SSRIs to disguise their innate melancholy.

    “Be real, genuine, honest – people will sense and appreciate your sincerity,” the website contends. Honesty? Sounds like a mandate for rudeness to me. If I run into those Texan backpackers on their free jaunt to Ireland, I might have to tell them that their wilful ignorance of immigration rules hinted of American imperial arrogance - and, oh yes, can they please send their rich parents over for a fortnight of coach trips instead?

    Thankfully, I don’t work in the tourism industry, and no doubt buoyed by that fact, Ireland already manages to do quite nicely in the official friendliness polls published by Tripadvisor. Do we have to go out of our way to be obsequious? Perhaps the next plastic surgery craze might be to get the corners of your mouth fixed upwards so they’re permanently stuck in a biddable grin - better chance of hanging on to your job that way.

    Meanwhile, the so-called “Bord Snip Nua” report has recommended a €12 million reduction in the Tourism Marketing Fund and a €15 million slice off Fáilte Ireland’s budget, with a cut of 60 related jobs. It lays off Tourism Ireland only because it is a north-south body, but suggests it should suffer cutbacks too. So much for the tourism bodies’ hopes to actually increase their marketing spend in a bid to bounce Ireland out of the global travel recession faster than other countries - a feat it managed after the post 9/11 dip.

    Sure, good manners cost us nothing. It’s just a shame that these days “nothing” appears to be all the tourism authorities can afford.

  • The big painful snip: did McCarthy and co get it right?

    July 16, 2009 @ 2:32 pm | by Laura Slattery

    After months spent surgically examining how the State is run, the report by “An Bord Snip Nua” chaired by economist Colm McCarthy has now been published on the Department of Finance website, although on my computer the eggtimer is still whirling around to no avail. You can read the Irish Times initial summary of the main recommendations here. They include an axing of 17,358 public sector jobs and a 5 per cent general cut in social welfare rates, with a 20 per cent slash in child benefit.

    Quango-wise, the Irish Film Board and Bord Bia are among the many agencies that the report says should be subsumed into an Enterprise Ireland-type super-body, while candidates for outright ”discontinuation” include the Active Citizenship Programme and the… er…Newfoundland-Labrador Partnership. Apparently, there were two Public Service Modernisation Units - one is now recommended for the chop.

    So have they got the balance right or is this the most offensive document since the Enron Guide to Honest and Sensible Accounting? Is Martin Cullen, minister of a department that Bord Snip says should be discontinued, the highest-profile loser? Which recommendations will see the light of day, which ones will be quietly shelved and which ones will prompt an embarrassing backtrack when the understandable public anger refuses to subside? What was missing from the report?

    And finally… are Brian Lenihan’s hopes for a “considered and honest” debate the biggest pipe dream since talk of a soft landing in the property market?

     Ah, I’ve finally made it onto the Department of Finance home page and it is completely blank except for the links to the Bord Snip report. Those cutbacks really are swingeing.

  • BBC2’s Freefall hits the credit crunch feel-bad factor

    July 15, 2009 @ 9:17 am | by Laura Slattery

    With very strong language and some scenes of a sexual nature, the first “credit crunch drama” hit TV screens last night, almost two years after terms such as Libor rates and Ninja loans became common currency. Freefall, a BBC2 film by Dominic Savage featuring Irish actor Aidan Gillen, is the only TV show I’ve ever seen to feature explanations of collateralised debt obligations (CDOs) and such dialogue as “somebody get on to Asia… monolines won’t even look at deals like this anymore”. Cue credit card cocaine chopping in the men’s loo.

    As one-off dramas go, Freefall was a little subprime. The tripartite story structure, which followed a thrill-seeking CDO trader, a pushy mortgage broker and a shopping centre security guard with a bad credit record, didn’t really make any attempt to draw the connection between the mounting misery of all three. But while some scenes stank of unreality, the logic behind the rampant borrowing seemed all too grimly familiar. You speculate to accumulate, and all that.

    “You don’t own anything,” the pushy mortgage broker tells his old schoolmate during an espresso-fuelled sales pitch. “We don’t owe anything,” the security guard counters, but a few minutes later he’s signing for a catch-ridden introductory discount mortgage that will buy him a mock-Tudor suburban palace. His wife is bemused: “I just don’t see how we can have this. We don’t have any more money than we did last week.”

    She had been perfectly happy in their rented council house – the kind of place you would want to escape from, it was implied, but which looked disarmingly like the kind of sought-after place that Dublin house-buyers were faking pay slips in order to afford during the height of the Irish property boom. Back at the subprime lender office, a colleague is aghast: “You just sold a discounted mortgage to an old mate. Have you not got a conscience?”

    It’s safe to say happy endings in Freefall were as about as elusive as a penalty-free fixed mortgage. But in a world where a recession sparked by the excesses of a financial sector can result in 30 million job losses in OECD countries while around 30,000 Goldman Sachs employees remain on course for a six-digit pay increase, it would be hard to find much about the banking bubble and its bursting that would make good source material for a heart-warming tale.

  • Could your job be done by a teenager?

    July 13, 2009 @ 4:01 pm | by Laura Slattery

    If 15-year-old Matthew Robson was anything like me, he’d have spent most of his work placement at Morgan Stanley wondering where the toilets were. Instead, this morning’s Financial Times boasts the front page headline “Media research note by ‘teenage scribbler’ causes City sensation”. This is a very worrying development for all concerned.

    The story goes that Morgan Stanley’s European media analysts asked Robson, an intern from a London school, to describe his friends’ media habits and his report proved to be “one of the clearest and most thought-provoking insights we have seen. So we published it,” said Edward Hill-Wood, Morgan Stanley’s chief media analyst. That’s Morgan Stanley’s current chief media analyst. For Mr Hill-Wood is right: Robson’s note is a joy to read.

    First of all, there are amusingly pithy dismissals of such old-century concepts as the Yellow / Golden Pages: “Teenagers never use real directories. This is because real directories contain listings for builders and florists, which are services that teenagers do not require.”

    Some of Robson’s sideswipes might be more surprising to anyone over the age of 21. The idea that teenagers can’t exhale without tweeting about it is laid to waste with devastating logic: “Teenagers do not use Twitter. Most have signed up to the service, but then just leave it as they realise they are not going to update it (mostly because texting Twitter uses up credit, and they would rather text friends with that credit). In addition, they realise that no one is viewing their profile so their ‘tweets’ are pointless.”

    This is hardly a ringing front-line endorsement for the future of Twitter, on a day when co-founder / chief executive Evan Williams made it into the top 10 of the annual MediaGuardian 100 most powerful people in the industry.

    In fact, unless they lower their prices, interested parties should pretty much give up marketing mobile web services at people young enough to be pocket money-dependent: “Teenagers do not use the internet features on their mobiles as it costs too much, and generally, if they waited an hour they could use their home internet and they are willing to wait as they don’t usually have anything urgent to do.”

    Apart from taking over the world, that is.

    The note ends with a “what is hot / what is not” list with which it is hard to argue. What is hot? “Anything with a touch screen”, mobile phones with large capacities for music, portable devices that can connect to the internet (iPhones), “really big tellies”. What is not? “Anything with wires”, phones with black and white screens, clunky “brick” phones and devices with less than a ten-hour battery life.

    The only consolation to this rampant display of precocious adolescent competence is that Robson is bound to be teased on his return to school by Morgan Stanley’s decision to declare his age as “15 years and seven months”, as if he was a pedantic toddler. Mr Hill-Wood, meanwhile, has condemned the career of a City analyst to the criticism that “even a child could do it”.

    This is not to throw stones at the analyst community, who have proven success in charging their clients fees for their insight (or lack of). Like it or not, the children are coming. Teenage workplace participation rates may be falling faster than among any other demographic group, according to the CSO’s Quarterly National Household Survey, but no amount of ladder-pulling college fees, employment legislation or economic depressions are going to leave the young to their Wiis forever. The Irish Times frequently plays host to small pockets of bright-eyed students, most of whom look like they’ll be all too capable of running the show - and have great hair while they do so - when the swine flu pandemic wipes out the rest of us.

    The one small comfort is that no self-respecting teenager would want to work for a newspaper anyway. Unfortunately, this is because they don’t read them. In the words of Matthew Robson, the Morgan Stanley wunderkind: “No teenager that I know regularly reads a newspaper, as most do not have the time and cannot be bothered to read pages and pages of text while they could watch the news summarised on the Internet or on TV.”

    Well, when you put it like that…

  • Chunky sandwiches, even chunkier rents

    July 10, 2009 @ 1:13 pm | by Laura Slattery

    Where has it all gone wrong for O’Brien’s Irish Sandwich Bars? Was it the unfashionably carb-heavy trademark thick-cut bread? Was it simply that competing franchises were newer, smarter and tastier? After O’Brien’s was placed in examinership by the High Court yesterday, its founder Brody Sweeney was in no doubt that the collapse of the property boom was the fly in the ointment - or the cockroach in the sandwich, as it were. It may have been chunky bread stacked behind its deli counters, but those were even chunkier rents that its franchisees were seeing drain away into the bellies of over-nourished landlords.

    “We have had to close a number of stores as some landlords remain intransigent and refuse to reduce rents and some of our franchisees have been struggling to pay their rents for the same reason…” Sweeney is quoted as saying in today’s Irish Times report. You can also read Barry O’Halloran’s analysis and background to the High Court move here.

    Of course, it’s not over yet for O’Brien’s: under an examinership, it will be temporarily protected from its creditors while it works on a rescue plan.

    If only these same intransigent landlords with their cursed upward-only rent reviews would adopt the same relaxed approach to negotiation that Sweeney claims to have done when he expanded the O’Brien’s franchise overseas. In Making Bread: The Real Way to Start Up and Stay Up in Business, his (perhaps unfortunately titled in retrospect) “how I made it” book, Sweeney describes how in 1997 he was settling into a master franchise deal for 11 countries in Asia with a Singapore-based gentleman by the name of Hugh Hoyes-Cock:

    “Just as we were about to sign the agreement, Hugh said to me: ‘What about Laos and Cambodia?’ ‘Go on then,’ I said, ‘you can have them’ - and thus I ‘gave away’ two sovereign countries for nothing!”

    These days, we might count ourselves ridiculously lucky to get a free biscuit with our comfort coffees. If that does happen, be aware that the franchisee may merely be de-stocking itself of all O’Brien’s-branded produce as part of a grand plan to start over with a new name on the shopfront - and presumably cheaper lunches for these deflationary times.

  • Fiddle-dee-dee! Titanic’s box office record is gone with the wind

    July 8, 2009 @ 1:22 pm | by Laura Slattery

    Epic doomed romance Titanic (1997) has been knocked off its perch as the highest grossing film of all time at the US box office by some spoilsports at Bloomberg, who have adjusted a century of movie takings for inflation and found that the true number one spot belongs to epic doomed romance Gone with the Wind (1939) instead.

    The civil war film’s $199 million translates into takings of $1.45 billion when inflation is taken into account, while Titanic’s $601 million box office receipts adjust to a mere $921.5 million. This relegates it to the number six spot, behind Star Wars (1977), The Sound of Music (1965), ET: The Extra-Terrestrial (1982) and The Ten Commandments (1956). Frankly, James “king of the world” Cameron probably does give a damn.

    Former number two The Dark Knight, which took $533 million at the box office last year, does not make the adjusted top 20, while other recent successes of the silver screen such as 2002’s Spider-Man, 2003’s The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King and 2006’s Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest, also see their top 10 placings vanquished by that old devil inflation.

    The new box office chart does not, on the surface, make good reading for Hollywood, but despite the lack of Scarlett-and-Rhett style smashes in the multiplex era, the days of queueing up for a €6 bucket of popcorn are far from over. According to the new PricewaterhouseCoopers Global Entertainment and Media Outlook, spending by consumers on cinema tickets increased 3.8 per cent in 2008. The increase helped offset a 1.8 per cent decline in spending in the piracy-struck segment of home DVD/video, with the result that global spending on filmed entertainment was flat in 2008. Hardly a Titanic-scale disaster, in other words. Meanwhile, Cineworld, which is a quoted British company, told investors in a trading update last week that it was looking forward to a “promising” second half to 2009, thanks to such expected hits as Harry Potter and the Half Blood Prince.

    The future lies in “event” cinema - persuading people that the big-screen experience is worth shelling out for in a world where illegal downloads are free on-demand. Parents who endured Ice Age 3 will know that the movie industry’s most obvious solution to date has been 3-D, and indeed PwC cites 3-D as having the potential to enhance box office receipts through both higher attendance and higher prices.

    If you’re not a child, a parent or a kidult, the industry has other ways in which to suck you in. Outdoor cinemas and retro drive-ins will probably never pull in the big bucks in a northern European climate, but expect to see the proliferation of gourmet cinemas that eschew traditional tacos / soft drink combos in favour of something a little more upmarket that you can consume round a table as you drink in the celluloid glory of George Clooney/Angelina Jolie with a full belly. In 3-D.

    In terms of staking a claim in all-time lists, however, Titanic’s number six spot in the inflation-adjusted chart may be the best it gets in these soft-copy times. Its takings were reported at the time to have been swollen by a surge repeat cinema visits, as teenage girls lined up to watch a strictly 2-D Leonardo diCaprio freeze to death all over again. That phenomenon turned out to be something of an anomaly - a belated last hurrah for the days of matinee idols and piracy-free profits.

  • Betting on Barney

    July 7, 2009 @ 11:04 am | by Laura Slattery

    Flutterers who swim at the novelty end of the betting pool may be intrigued to see that Paddy Power is offering odds on whether the always quoteable Democratic Congressman Barney Frank will succeed in his campaign to lift the US federal ban on internet gambling before 2011. Gambling on gambling, eh… The words “feedback loop” spring inexorably to mind.

    “Rumour has it that President Obama plays a mean hand of poker so maybe the Congressman could find himself with some very powerful supporters!” the Paddy Power press release breathlessly intones, as it offers odds of 4/5 on the 2006 Unlawful Internet Gambling Enforcement Act (UIGEA) being amended by the end of 2010.

    Of course, the President’s personal preferences didn’t help Big Tobacco when he signed a tough new anti-smoking bill into law last month, but the pro-gambling lobby still has a formidable ally in the form of Congressman Frank, who has become known for his colourful and cutting “Barney-isms”.

    During a debate on a bill to ban bonuses, Frank accused the Republicans of opposing the bill simply so they could continue to enjoy fulminating against bonuses in perpetuity: “They appear to have become so attached to their outrage that they are even more outraged that they won’t be able to be outraged any more,” he concluded. Bankers, too, have been on the receiving end of the Massachusetts politician’s plain speaking: “People really hate you,” he told a cohort of bank executives on a public relations sojourn to Washington earlier this year.

    Frank apparently declared to hundreds of happy Texas Hold ‘Em players at the World Series of Poker event in (where else?) Las Vegas on Sunday that Internet gambling was a right that must be protected. But, ironically, its casino economy means that Nevada is one of the most likely US states to veto the bill should it be amended. According to Paddy Power’s odds list, Nevada has a 4/1 likelihood of being the first state to opt out, the second favourite behind “Bible-bashing Utah”. Why take up residency at a rinky-dink slot machine in the middle of a desert when you can play Blackjack online in the comfort of your own home?

    The effort that goes into protecting state monopolies on gambling is tortuous. Some years ago, I spent my J1 summer holiday visa working on the phone exchange (PBX) of a casino in South Lake Tahoe, on the Nevada side of the stateline with California. One of the most important rules in the PBX was not to put any calls from California through to the hotel’s sports bar: to do so was to aid and abet in an illegal act. It was still physically possible to connect such calls, though, and desperate Californian residents sometimes rang up and tried to persuade weak-willed operators to press the button standing in the way of them and their sure-fire punt on the Superbowl.

    If US states split into two groups, with one group of states legalising online gambling and another group outlawing it, the cost of policing the bans would have to be less than the value of the commercial interests being protected. But then as the chairman of the US House of Congress Financial Services committee, Barney Frank already knows a thing or two about trying to control casino capitalism.

  • Bankers have zero challenges remaining

    July 6, 2009 @ 1:02 pm | by Laura Slattery

    Watchers of yesterday’s epic Wimbledon serve-fest may have spotted Mervyn King, the governor of the Bank of England, soaking up Andy Roddick’s passing shots from the invitation-only confines of the Royal Box. King was no doubt silently ruminating about bank balance sheets and Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) tensions as the final set sank into its near-stalemate and polite conversation with such knockabout fellow guests as Pete Sampras finally dried up.

    Over the course of the tournament, however, Centre Court’s best seats have remained remarkably free of financial types - evidence perhaps of just how far down the pecking order bankers have fallen. You could consider this guest list as a painful backhand slice from the All-England Club on behalf of the British establishment. The only two bankers to appear are Stephen Green and Dyfrig John, the chairman and chief executive respectively of HSBC.

    The bank’s “in” is its status as Wimbledon’s official banking partner, which may have given it some kind of exclusivity deal, although one imagines that the Royal Box is the kind of place where protocols are more complicated than mere commercial arrangements. Conveniently, HSBC is also one of the only big British banks to avoid a bailout from Gordon Brown: its route to survival - a massive rights issue - makes it the acceptable face of banking in a respectability-free world.

    Not that taxpayer-funded bankers stayed away from the tournament completely. But as this report from the London Evening Standard suggested, they kept a rather low profile.

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