Poll puts Wilders far-right party on par with Liberals

A new opinion poll in the Netherlands shows Geert Wilders’s anti-Islam, anti-EU Freedom Party neck-and-neck with the Liberals, led by prime minister Mark Rutte, as the threat posed by returning Islamic State jihadists replaces the MH17 air disaster at the top of the national agenda.

A weighted average of the country’s four main political polls shows the Liberals losing three seats compared with a month ago, and the Freedom Party gaining three. The poll has the Liberals and the Freedom Party each taking between 25 and 29 seats, an outcome a long way from Mr Rutte’s high of 41 seats in the 2012 general election and from the lacklustre 15 won by Mr Wilders.

“The public reacted very well to the way the Rutte government handled the aftermath of the MH17 crash and managed to get the vast majority of the bodies repatriated,” says political scientist Tom Louwerse of pollster Peilingwijzer.

“The Rutte approval factor predictably benefited the Liberals more than the junior coalition partners, Labour, and so there was a spike in the Liberal support that lasted into September – but that has now, apparently, worked itself through.”

The beneficiary of that “working through” has been Mr Wilders and the Freedom Party, which, despite approaching the European elections in May on a high, fared not as well as expected after an uncharacteristic gaffe that saw Mr Wilders leading anti-Moroccan chants at an election rally.

“The commotion surrounding that chanting, and the Freedom Party resignations that followed, has now died down,” Mr Louwerse says. “The popularity of the government is dwindling again and the threat of attack posed by returning jihadists with connections to Islamic State gives Wilders a stronger profile.”

What is most interesting about this poll, he adds, is the degree to which “conservative” voters routinely switch allegiance between the Liberals (centre-right on economic matters) and the Freedom Party, depending on topical issues.

For the junior coalition party, Labour, there is little change in the unimpressive 13-17 seats, compared with the 38 seats they took in 2012. By contrast, centre-left D66 again did well, with 20-24 seats, .

As the poll was published, there was more unpopular news as finance minister Jeroen Dijsselbloem confirmed that a €642 million EU surcharge based on gross domestic product growth is probably correct, “according to an initial analysis”.

While British prime minister David Cameron took the row over the UK’s bill of €2.1 billion to Brussels, Mr Dijsselbloem – who is also president of the Eurogroup of euro zone finance ministers – confirmed last week the Netherlands would pay if the figure turned out to be correct.