Your horse-by-horse guide to the 2016 Epsom Derby

Across The Stars

Talented but a work in progress and this probably comes too soon. Only win from four starts came in a Lingfield maiden against three rivals. Ran on well to be third in Lingfield’s Derby Trial last month after trouble in running. Did not stand up well to being leaned on by Humphrey Bogart as that one went by and unlikely to be well suited to a big field around this track. Seems a definite stayer.

Algometer

Won a good-quality Newbury maiden in October and followed up in Goodwood’s trial a fortnight ago. Beaten only by Midterm on his reappearance, eight lengths clear of the third, and Midterm may have started favourite for this but for injuring himself next time. Dismissed by some as a plodder but has solid form, will stay and suited by rain-softened ground.

Biodynamic

Only win was in Kempton maiden in March from which the second, third and fourth remain maidens. Beaten nine lengths by US Army Ranger and Port Douglas at Chester last month without convincing excuses, an effort which seemed to prove he lacks the necessary stamina.

Cloth Of Stars

By a Derby winner out of an unraced sister to an Oaks winner. The winner of four of his six starts, including both runs this year, in Group races at Saint-Cloud. His form does not look strong and his performances have had a grinding quality but that may play well in these conditions and the extra two furlongs should help. Trained by a master and likely to have more to offer.

Deauville

Won his first two races but had a disappointing end to his juvenile season, finishing fifth of seven in the Racing Post Trophy. Much better on his reappearance when, wearing a first-time tongue tie, he went down by just a neck in the Dante to Wings Of Desire. Had the run of that race but could do so again here, as he is likely to race handily from a helpful draw. Others are more exciting but he’s a contender if things fall right.

Harzand

The most likely stayer in the field and a strong finisher on all three of his starts, including when fifth on his debut at Gowran in September. Both his wins this year have been on heavy going, which clearly suits. He won’t get that here but the recent rain should ensure there is enough moisture for him to run to something like his best. Might lack the tactical speed or acceleration of some of the others if the ground dries out enough to make that a factor. Big chance otherwise.

Humphrey Bogart

Not bred to stay this far or be good enough for this but his form has quite a solid look.

Stayed on well to win Lingfield’s Derby Trial last time, bullying Across The Stars aside en route. Previously beaten only a neck on soft ground around here in April, the first and third from that having since won other Classic trials. Low draw looks unhelpful but should be staying on at the finish once more.

Idaho

Won on his debut last year and subsequent efforts show he belongs in this, even if he hasn’t scored again. Was seven lengths clear of the rest when a length and a quarter behind Harzand on his reappearance. Never-nearer third to Moonlight Magic on a much drier surface next time. Has been held up in rear for both races this year, tactics that could make things difficult for him here. Should finish well.

Massaat

Clearly belongs in the highest class, having run second in both the Dewhurst and the 2,000 Guineas but stamina is the issue. He may want further than a mile but this mile and a half will be a real test for him, judging by racecourse performances and pedigree. Recent rain will only add to that problem.

Moonlight Magic

Closely related to Sea The Stars, being by the same sire and out of his half-sister. The winner of three of his four starts, his only defeat having been on heavy going on his reappearance in April at a time when his stable was struggling.

Stable form is still not great but he put that behind him with an emphatic success in Leopardstown’s trial, beating Shogun and Idaho. Either idled in front or was running out of stamina that day, not for the first time, so would not want to be sent for home three out. Stall one presents his jockey with a tactical challenge, as this will probably be a hard race to win from an early position out the back. Could have done without quite so much rain.

Port Douglas

Looks the likely pacemaker from Aidan O’Brien’s five runners, having set the pace for his last three runs, including when unexpectedly holding on to win the Beresford in September. Came close to causing another surprise in the Chester Vase when beaten just a short-head by US Army Ranger, carrying 4lb more than that one and under gentle handling in the closing stages. Pedigree suggests he has bundles of stamina, so another bold bid from the front seems in prospect. Will keep going better than many but likely to find at least one too good.

Red Verdon

Galloped his way into this with two successes over the Derby distance this year and represents a stable in fine form this spring. Those wins came in handicap company against rivals that would not belong here, so this chestnut has much improvement to make. But he’s likely to travel smoothly and will be fine on the ground, so could be in the argument after the turn for home.

Shogun

Brother to Qualify, who caused a huge shock in last year’s Oaks. This is his first try at a mile and a half and likely to improve for it. Finished strongly into second behind Moonlight Magic two starts ago and unsuited both by the drop back in distance and the tactics when midfield in the Irish Guineas last time. Balance of form suggests he’s not good enough, with just one win from eight in a Curragh maiden last summer.

Ulysses

Regally bred, being by Galileo out of an Oaks winner, but has taken time to show he has the talent that pedigree would suggest. Fair sixth on unsuitably soft going on his debut in October, then a close second to a useful rival on his reappearance after a setback. Hosed up by eight lengths in a Newbury maiden last time, since when he has been the subject of excitable gallops reports. Form of his win is very weak and he was sent off at just 4-11. Looks extremely promising but it’s more than 40 years since the Derby was won by such a late bloomer. A big field won’t help a horse with his profile and he would probably have preferred a drier week.

US Army Ranger

Also well bred, being by Galileo out of an Irish Oaks winner, and another who is taking time to find himself. Didn’t make his debut until April and

made very hard work of winning the Chester Vase, despite having the race set up for him. His pacemaker, Port Douglas, came out of that race as the best horse at the weights. This big field presents him with a much greater test and it’s asking a lot for him to cope much better just a month later.

Wings Of Desire

Didn’t make his debut until mid-April and was running in a Wolverhampton maiden late in that month.

Won that well enough to be tried in the Dante and took a huge step forward by winning that too, running down Deauville close home. Return to this mile and a half should help and any more improvement will make him a formidable contender.

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