Egyptian president needs to show diplomacy skills to keep Gaza talks on track

Egyptian president Abdel-Fattah al-Sisi will face his first major political challenge if the 72-hour ceasefire in Gaza holds and mediated negotiations on a long-term truce between Palestinian and Israeli teams begin in Cairo. His task will be to deliver an extension of the ceasefire and appoint a negotiating team that has credibility with both sides.

During talks at the weekend in Cairo with the Palestinian umbrella delegation, comprising representatives of member factions of the Palestine Liberation Organisation (PLO), and non-members Hamas and Islamic Jihad, Egypt pledged to press for the demand to end Israel’s siege and blockade of Gaza as well as address the opening the Rafah crossing on Egypt’s border to human and goods traffic.

These demands need to be addressed urgently because Gaza’s 1.8 million citizens are in desperate need of water, food, medical supplies, shelter, electricity, and equipment to deal with millions of litres of raw sewage flooding streets and flowing into the Mediterranean.

Furthermore, unless the siege and isolation of Gaza comes to an end, Gazans will not be able to import the materials and equipment urgently needed to rebuild homes and infrastructure destroyed and damaged during Israel’s air, land and sea war.

Palestinians also want the release of former detainees, the majority from Hamas, rearrested by Israel in June following the abduction and murder of three Israeli teenagers by suspects known not to be connected with Hamas. Finally Palestinians are urging Egypt to convene a donors’ conference to raise at least $6 billion for Gaza’s reconstruction.

Sisi’s negotiators will also have to deal with Israel’s demands for the demilitarisation of Gaza and the disarming of Hamas. These cannot be met. Neither Egypt nor the UN are in a position to carry out tasks the Israeli army has not been able to achieve by military means, although during this campaign a large portion of Hamas-Islamic Jihad arsenals have been eliminated.

Careful scrutiny

The best Egypt can offer is that everything that enters Gaza from Egypt will be carefully scrutinised by its security forces and Egypt will finish the job of shutting down the tunnels between Egypt and Gaza used to smuggle arms as well as goods. Israel says it has destroyed most attack tunnels along its border with Gaza and will maintain a strong armed presence along that border.

The Egyptian army has been trying to eradicate the tunnel trade for many years, but could not do so without the co-operation of Hamas, Islamic Jihad, merchants on both sides of the border and the Sinai Bedouin who have been involved in this lucrative enterprise. The opening of Gaza to free but monitored trade and human movement would put an end to the tunnels.

Hamas and Islamic Jihad will have to agree that entry to Gaza through the Israeli crossing at Erez and the Egyptian terminal at Rafah will be managed not by Hamas, as at present, but by officers of the presidential guard based in Ramallah, the administrative capital of the Palestinian Authority. This suggestion has already been put forward by President Mahmoud Abbas and has received a favourable reception in Cairo.

Egypt will have to drop its hostility toward Hamas, an offshoot of the outlawed Muslim Brotherhood, and persuade the movement, which has ruled Gaza for seven years, to allow the consensus government formed by Fatah and Hamas in June to take over.

Ramallah will have to be persuaded to keep on some civil servants appointed by Hamas and pay all of them.

Difficult

Dealing with Hamas will be difficult politically and psychologically for Cairo, which has blamed it for the rise of radical jihadis who have attacked Egyptian troops and police in Sinai over the past few years.

However, if the negotiations are to succeed, Egypt will have to accept Hamas as an actor in resolving the problem of Gaza. Unless it is resolved the region can expect conflict every 18 months to two years.

If Sisi – a military man with little experience in international diplomacy – accomplishes these Herculean tasks, he will show himself to be a statesman as well as as well as the wielder of an iron fist at home.