Mayoral races could determine if Rishi Sunak sinks or swims

The van last Saturday had just driven up the Mall from Buckingham Palace, before turning right at the top of St James’s Park on to Horse Guards Road. There it ground to a halt, immobilised in the afternoon traffic that, even with the impact of the congestion charge, turns large parts of central London each weekend into an exclusive car park.

It was attached to a white caravan or, more accurately, a caravan that used to be white. Both vehicles were now completely plastered with slogans and angry slurs against Sadiq Khan, Labour’s mayor of London. Khan, who is up for an unprecedented third term in elections on Thursday, seems to inspire a special kind of ire among his opponents.

I recognised the van-caravan just off the Mall last Saturday from local newspaper reports of recent months. Late last year, amid the height of a furore over the Ultra Low Emission Zone (Ulez) traffic charges introduced across London by the mayor, it had been pictured parked up outside Khan’s house in Tooting, south London. A warning was scrawled in red on the side of the caravan: “Let us be clear, Mr Khan, you have underestimated our resolve!”

The owner seemed angry over Ulez, which charges the owners of older, less environmentally-friendly vehicles £12.50 (€14.60) for each day they are driven in London boroughs. There were “No to Ulez” stickers all over the van and mocking pictures of Khan asking for £12.50.

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The identity of the “us” in the angry message is unclear, but the Ulez scheme has been the focus of a highly organised campaign of opposition and frustration that has included the cutting down of the cameras that enforce the scheme through the photography of number plates.

The caravan deplored the “dictator of London” and the pennies that its owner said he was trying to “screw” from people. And there it sat, marooned in traffic in one of the prettiest parts of central London, as bemused tourists looked on and people whizzed by on bicycles to escape the gridlock.

No London mayor has ever won three terms before, but Khan should win handily enough this week. He should win. London is broadly a Labour city and the Tories are in a national tailspin. But there is a certain brand of committed Tory activist who still holds on to the faint hope that the party’s candidate, Susan Hall, could spring a last-minute surprise in her challenge.

It seems unlikely. Hall is shunned by most of Britain’s traditional media and many in her own party. Her eccentric campaign has been dogged by accusations that she is a blue London Trump. She has on several occasions liked social media posts that indulge anti-Muslim tropes, such as the one that claimed Khan was the “mayor of Londonistan”.

Last week, the Observer published evidence from a Greenpeace research group, Unearthed, that she was a member of up to six closed Facebook groups where Khan is regularly besmirched with online abuse. There was no evidence she had engaged in any of the abuse herself. Yet she seems to associate with online oddballs.

British ministers are regularly asked at press conferences if the party’s candidate in London is a racist. Hall has strenuously denied she is, and has written articles in the Evening Standard calling for people to stop insulting Khan over his faith.

Hall has also been the object of ridicule. She once played up how she had been pickpocketed on the Tube, and how it was evidence of the degeneration of London under Khan. It turned out she had actually lost her wallet on a train, where it was picked up by a good Samaritan who dropped it into a lost property office.

Khan should be out of sight, yet Hall is still clinging on in polls. A Survation poll last week put her 13 points behind. That suggests she will be well beaten, but this election is the first time that the mayoral elections have been held under the first-past-the-post system, which can throw up odd results in multi-candidate races. There are also new rules around voter ID that many people think might benefit the Tories.

If Hall does upset the odds and manages to pip Khan, it could save the skin of Tory prime minister Rishi Sunak, who is braced for a heave after the local elections, which are expected to be awful for his party.

Taking London could also take the heat off him, unlikely as a Tory win seems to be.

Another poll this week by YouGov for Sky has put the sitting Tory mayors of West Midlands and Tees Valley, Andy Street and Ben Houchen, back in the lead in each contest. If both cling on, it could end up being a relatively good week for Sunak, even if his party loses half its councillors.

If Hall wins, he will be absolutely cock-a-hoop. If he loses all three, Sunak could be in real trouble.