Sex offenders least likely criminals to be caught – CSO

The vast majority of sexual crimes are not being solved by the Garda while those who commit homicides, including murders, are caught more often than any other offender group, according to new crime data for the Republic.

Detection rates for sexual crimes have not increased above 24 per cent in the Republic, even when the Central Statistics Office (CSO) has checked on progress with cases as far back as 2014.

Overall, crime rates in Dublin are much higher than in other parts of the country. The burglary rate, per 100,000 people, in Dublin is double the next worst affected part of the country, debunking the claim that rural Ireland is a burglary blackspot.

The new information from the CSO reveals 10 per cent of sex crimes reported to the Garda in 2020 had been “detected” when progress with all of those cases was checked by researchers in September of this year, slightly lower than the previous year.

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One year ago it was found that 12 per cent of sexual crimes reported to the Garda in 2019 had been “detected” by September 2020.

For most crimes, a “detection” means a suspected offender has been issued with a charge or summons and faces prosecution in the courts.

The detection rates for homicides – including murder, manslaughter, death by driving and infanticide – are very high. Some 82 per cent of homicides committed in 2020 were “detected” when the cases were checked again in September 2021, up from a detection rate of 65.5 per cent a year earlier.

The new CSO research examines crimes reported in 2020 and outlines how many were solved in September 2021. The CSO then compares that data with its findings from last year when it studied crimes committed in 2019 and determined how many were solved by September 2020.

Some of the key findings include:

Almost 38 per cent of assaults and threat-based crimes in 2020 had been solved by September 2021; up 5 per cent on the detection rate of the same crimes in 2019.

For “assaults causing harm” in 2020, 48 per cent have been solved though only 12 per cent of harassment-based crimes have been solved.

Some 31 per cent of robbery, extortion and hijacking offences in 2020 were solved in September 2021, up almost 5 per cent on a year earlier.

Just over 22 per cent of burglaries in 2020 have been solved, up almost 8 per cent on a year earlier.

Some 24 per cent of offences that damaged property or the environment in 2020 have already been solved, up almost 4 per cent.

Detection rates for thefts – from shops, cars and people – were up; to 36 per cent from 33 per cent a year earlier.

Detection rates for drug crime were slightly lower; 84 per cent of drug crimes in 2020 solved compared with 88 per cent a year earlier.

Almost 27 per cent of frauds committed in early 2019 have now been solved, compared with a detection rate of just over 14 per cent of frauds committed at the end of last year.

There were 60.5 sexual crimes committed in 2020 nationally for every 100,000 people. The highest rate of offending was reported in Dublin, with 66.9 sex crimes per 100,000 population, and the lowest was in the southern region, at 53.7 sex crimes recorded per 100,000 people.

There were 379 burglaries in Dublin last year per 100,000 population compared with 185 in the eastern region, 147 in the southern region and 146 in the northwestern region.

The number of thefts last year in Dublin reached 1,979 per 100,000 people compared with 712 in the southern region, 706 in the eastern region and 549 in the northwestern region.

The CSO has in recent years been issuing research on detection rates, dating back to 2014. Crimes reported to the Garda in a calendar year are checked in the September of the following year to assess how many crimes have been detected.

When detection rates for a specific year are checked again after another 12 months have elapsed, the data will show more crimes have been solved. This is because more time has passed allowing for progress with investigations, which are often complex and can take one or more years to solve.

For example, when sexual crimes committed in 2019 were checked for progress in September 2020, just 12 per cent of the offences had been detected. However, in the year since then, the detection rate for the 2019 sex crimes had increased to 20 per cent.